Ryan Tannehill vs OAK
I don’t think anyone would have predicted that Tannehill in 6 weeks as a starter would be borderline elite as a quarterback. Tannehill is looking to keep the hot streak alive and he gets a very juicy matchup for the first week as fantasy playoffs as he gets to face the not so hot Oakland Raiders. In the last 5 games, the Raiders are allowing 20.8 fantasy points per game and in those 5 games the quarterbacks they played did not put up that great of in-depth stats. In that set of games, the quarterbacks they faced averaged a 44% completion percentage and a mere 243.6 yards per game. Since Tannehill became the starter, he has outperformed those numbers by a mile, for he has a 73.7% completion percentage and has put up QBR’s of 133.9, 155.8, 131.2 in the last 3 games. I introduced points allowed above league average last week and some of the plays didn’t work, due to weather I forgot to consider, but I am going back to that metric this week. The Raiders are currently 4.28 points per game above league average with a couple “fluke” games due to weird game scripts and a game against Ryan Finley. Is Tannehill going to be a league winner for teams in the playoffs? I don’t know about league winner, but I am for sure he is a week winner.
Devonta Freeman vs CAR
I don’t want to say that Freeman has had a bust season as I was not on board with drafting him this season, but I think you can have confidence in playing him this week as a RB2 with huge upside. In the last 4 games, the Panthers are allowing 5.3 yards per rush attempt, 2 touchdowns a game, and above 130 rushing yards per game to the running back. In comparison, they are allowing 33.6 fantasy points per game to the running back position in the last 5 games. It seems as if they have no answer for anyone lately as even old man Adrian Peterson ran for 99 yards on 7.6 yards per carry. In that same stretch of 5 games the Panthers are allowing 2.8 receptions per game which is a solid floor for PPR running backs and this part of the game favors Freeman as he is averaging 4.9 targets per game this season. The Falcons defense has been hot as of late and I think they are going to try and slow down the tempo of the game in order to contain Christian McCaffrey, so I think Freeman is going to see a ton of work and is in line for a nice game. Carolina is currently allowing 5.95 points per game above league average.
Alshon Jeffery vs NYG
It always seems like when Jeffery is healthy and plays, he seems to have a solid game and he is in line for another solid game this week in an extremely plus matchup. In the last 5 games, the New York Giants are allowing 45.9 fantasy points to the wide receiver position and this number could probably be higher but due to teams getting up early running the ball becomes a priority. In the last two games, both games since Jeffery returned from injury, he saw 16 and 8 targets in those games with respective air yards numbers of 267 and 103. Due to the lack of WR weapons Carson Wentz is presented with Jeffery becomes an elite volume play week in and week out. Jeffery, via PFF’s matchup charts, has been given a33% matchup advantage against Janoris Jenkins. If you follow the NFL as close as I do and/or read my articles you will know that Jenkins is a very favorable spot when it comes positive matchups. Not to mention that Eli Manning is starting now which in a now correlating way should help the Giants keep up with the Eagles forcing them to throw the ball more (hopefully to Jeffery). The Giants are currently allowing 4.39 fantasy points per game above league average.
Jack Doyle vs TB
The Colts may never go a game with a tight end producing fantasy points for as long as I live, and I know that this trend will continue this week.
The chart above shows Doyle’s splits of games with T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron (in split) and games without Hilton and Ebron (out of split). Ebron is done for the year and Hilton is not playing this game and has a chance to be out for a while. As you can see, in games out of the split Doyle is producing better in every single category and it only makes sense as to why. Now he gets to go against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week who are currently allowing 15.46 fantasy points per game to the tight end position and are allowing 3.43 fantasy points per game over league average. Doyle saw 11 targets last week in the first game without Hilton and Ebron that was a heavy negative game script. Tampa Bay should be able to get out early and force a negative game script making the Colts air it out to Doyle and Zach Pascal. Doyle is a huge volume play with multiple touchdown upside this week.