Sunday Night Sho-ho-ho-down Chiefs Bears Draft Kings Picks and Strategy

By Santa Weymouth

TW @delrayboston

This is a strange matchup because unlike so many of the games on the earlier slate, the storylines just aren’t there in this one.

The Ravens clinched #1 Seed earlier, the Vikings are officially in the playoffs and the odds of the Bears pole vaulting in are virtually gone. So the Chiefs need to win to stay in the hunt for the #2 seed after the Pats win yesterday. Ok my head is spinning.

The best we can hope for is a fun Sunday Night shoot out and for everyone to win some cash – so let’s get to it!

The Chiefs

– Patrick Mahomes ($12,000)

– Tyreek Hill ($11,000)

– Travis Kelce ($10,800)

– Damien Williams ($6,400)

– Sammy Watkins ($5,600)

– LeSean McCoy ($4,200)

– Mecole Hardman ($3,600)

– Demarcus Robinson ($2,000)

– Darwin Thompson ($3,200)

– Chiefs DST ($4,800)

– Harrison Butker ($4,000)

– Byron Pringle ($600)

Patrick Mahomes is on a mission. I mean I don’t really know that but since their bye in week 12, his drive; game face and wits have been dead on. Last week dropping 340 yards and 2 touchdowns on a strong Denver Defense. Looking at tonight’s matchup with the slightly better albeit banged up Chicago Bears defense, I wouldn’t be surprised if Pat ended with similar numbers. In fact with a full compliment of healthy receivers, a healthy Travis Kelce and the return of feature back Damien Williams – all things are pointing to a potential monster Mahomes night in Prime Time. He will be the chalkiest of all Chiefs but I don’t think you can avoid him tonight. As Captain or Flex he is fine.

Nor wind, nor snow, nor opponent can stop Tyreek Hill. This was evident with his two touchdown performance in the snow against Chris Harris and the Broncos. Again much like Mahomes, everything is lining up for Tyreek Hill to have a big game especially with the Bears’ Prince Amukamara sidelined. Also much like Mahomes, Hill will be chalky tonight in tournaments. However with his high price tag, he may not be as Captain. He could make for a very interesting Mahomes pivot in the Captains spot. I’d recommend finding a way to have Hill in any lineup you build, even if it is naked without Mahomes. I have a sneaky feeling that #Cheetah is about to go off.

Travis Kelce is also in play as the Bears rank 26th against Tight Ends and with injuries in the linebacker and secondary, Kelce should be able to find plenty of room to operate. Kelce also is a fine play with or without Mahomes but I prefer to stack him with Patrick as when the Chiefs do make it to the red zone, Big Travis is a Big Target.

Since Damien Williams went down with injury, the Chiefs backfield has definitely not been a feature part of the offense. With McCoy, Thompson and even Spencer Ware all rotating in as needed. With Williams back I see the backfield being more of a 60/40 split with he and McCoy but in that split, I do prefer Williams the most. Additionally I could see the Chiefs leaning a bit more on the run in this game as it is highly likely they will be playing with a lead and wanting to keep the Bears on the sideline. I also like Williams’ price tag tonight for the potential upside he brings. Shady will still receive some touches tonight so he is also in play, but I prefer Williams and I also could see him getting into the end zone as well. With Williams back I wouldn’t expect Thompson to have more than a few snaps as a change of pace.

Now we get to all of the other guys that Mahomes will have to throw to. Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman and even Byron Pringle. Each one of these guys have had “their week” this season and each one are so hard to predict that I almost prefer to stay away completely and I wouldn’t blame you if you did. However I will say this – Sammy Watkins can always pull a 5 for 65 out of his hat. Demarcus Robinson does have a knack for getting open in the Red Zone and Mecole Hardman is just plain #GoodatFootball. I think in order I like Hardman, Robinson and then Watkins … now watch, tonight will go and be Byron Pringle night right?

Harrison Butker is one of the most consistent scoring kickers in the league and should also not be ignored tonight. Many Mahomes drives do stagger as they approach the red zone and I think Butker will be busy.

The Chiefs DST also has been coming on lately, being tougher on the run and also on the perimeter. They are sneaky play tonight against a Trubisky who has been looking better lately, but is still Trubisky at the end of the day.

The Bears Defense is just plain not the same as it was early in the season with injuries piling up. However they are still a good defense and for every touchdown Mahomes throws an INT could always follow. However I do not think Mahomes will have a lot of trouble moving the ball tonight and also, Damien Williams could have a big night on the ground in his return. In other words – Play Your Chiefs.

The Bears

– Mitchell Trubisky ($8,800)

– Allen Robinson ($9,800)

– Anthony Miller ($8,200)

– David Montgomery ($7,400)

– Tyreek Cohen ($7,200)

– Jesper Horstead ($1,600)

– JP Holtz ($800)

– Cordarrelle Patterson ($1,200)

– Riley Ridley ($1,000)

Without question, it has been a different Mitchell Trubisky lately. In fact since Week 7 he has gone over 250 yards in the air 6 of 9 times. He’s thrown a touchdown pass in 7 of the 9 games, multiple TDs in 4 – including 2 last week. He is also back running, a little bit. Two weeks ago he made 10 rushes for 69 yards and over the last 4 games he is averaging 6 attempts. Trubisky is certainly poised to have a good game against the Chiefs tonight – except for the interceptions. In fact they have been a problem. 7 in the last 5 weeks kinda problem. Don’t sleep on the Chiefs DST in other words.

Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller are criminally undervalued tonight based on the volume of targets that they will see. No Taylor Gabriel again tonight which means it will be the RobMill show and with both men working primarily out of the slot and underneath, they will be attacking the weakest point of the Chiefs secondary. They are must starts tonight.

David Montgomery has been a head scratcher to figure out. While on a whole of the season the Chiefs DST deserves their 28th ranked run defense tag, it has not been that way recently and I believe this will continue tonight as the Chiefs will likely force the Bears to rely on Mitchell Trubisky and his 7 interceptions over 5 weeks, to try and beat them. Montgomery has the skill to break tackles and make something happen on the ground and in the air so I’m not saying to fade the first year back entirely, but he may not get enough yards total to really make the 1.5 of Captain worthwhile. Also I’m concerned on his touchdown upside.

Tyreek Cohen however presents a real threat to what the Chiefs do well, which is stuff the box and blitz. I could see Cohen having a real nice game tonight operating more as a receiver than a runner. However if the Bears do use him as a runner it may actually be a sneaky way to catch this defense off guard. I like Cohen a lot tonight even enough to consider him a Captain.

Where things go from here with the Bears – tough call. Patterson is involved. The tight ends Horstead and Holtz will be involved. Even Riley Ridley caught a ball a week ago. Of all of these options I like Horstead best to see the most looks from Trubisky and he may be a very sneaky way to pivot when creating a Chiefs 5 to 1 stack. Patterson also is extremely explosive when he gets an opportunity and acts as both a runner and pass catcher often in game. I just don’t see the volume of snaps being there for Patterson and honestly I’d prefer the Chiefs third and fourth options only due to their snap count being higher.

The Bears are a team you can’t take lightly but I really see the Chiefs coming with all guns a blazing. Both Brady and Jackson have made headlines this weekend with their playoff positioning and Drew Brees broke records last Monday. I think Mahomes is ready to put on a show and remind everyone who was the MVP last year …

Good Luck in your Contests

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