By Sean Weymouth
Heeeeee’s baaaack! Sometimes reality is so much better than fiction! The Seahawks have resigned their former pro bowl running back Marshawn Lynch and just in time for a Pivotal NFC Showdown.
With both the Packers and Saints winning today, the Seahawks need to win to stay the #3 seed in the NFC with a home game on the line. A loss would put them at the #5 seed. Similarly the Niners need a win to maintain the #1 seed with all of the advantages that come with it. A loss would put them in at the #5 seed. So while not as much on the line for the Seahawks you can bet the Niner’s will coming for blood to try and capture the #1 position heading into the playoffs.
So let’s dive in:
– Jimmy Garoppolo $9,600
– George Kittle $10,400
– Emmanuel Sanders $9,200
– Deebo Samuel $9,000
– Raheem Mostert $8,800
– 49ers Defense $4,400
– Robbie Gould $3,800
– Kendrick Bourne $3,200
– Tevin Coleman $2,600
– Kyle Juszcyk $1,800
– Matt Brieda $1,000
– Dante Pettis $800
If you look at how Draft Kings has the Niners priced it is pretty clear where they believe the power lies in the offense, at least from a pass catcher stand point and it starts with George Kittle. As a Pats fan I can honestly say, what Kittle is doing is Gronk like and being a #1 target at Tight End is simply impressive. The last time Kittle saw less than 5 targets a game was way back in Week 2. The big guy is averaging 8 targets per game and in a run first offense no less. 2 weeks ago he saw a season high of 17 and last week he caught his 5th Touchdown of the season. The Seahawks are near the bottom of the league defending against the Tight End (30th) and are giving up over 260 yards per game through the air. I’d expect Kittle to be targeted early and often and he should be a cornerstone of every lineup you build.
Jimmy G also lines you to have a solid game with a healthy Emmanuel Sanders, Deebo Samuel and Red Zone specialist Kendrick Bourne all healthy. Pairing Kittle with Garoppolo will be a smart play but I’d be careful with a full stack of both Samuel and Sanders, as I believe it will be popular. Perhaps pairing swapping one or the other for Bourne may be a contrarian way to build. Sanders is tough to figure out as he has only had two double digit Fantasy days since week 9. Samuel seems much more appealing as he has not only gotten targets but also rushing attempts and I like the dual threat he presents. Bourne is also a wild card with a low target volume. But as we saw two weeks ago against the Saints he has touchdown upside. In that game he turned in 3 catches for 18 yards and Two Touchdowns.
The murky San Fran running back situation seemed to clear up a bit last week as Mostert received the majority of carries, followed distantly by Coleman and Matt Brieda saw none at all. Even if the Time Share returns I think Mostert is still the safest to see the most action and with the Seahawks yielding 117 on the ground on average I could see Sam Fran leaning on Must Start Mostert, especially in the red zone. While I don’t expect another goose egg from Brieda, trying to pin point who between he and Coleman will be the #2 running back on the team is a little too difficult for me to try and use one. Even at their cheaper prices. I didn’t mention Jeff Wilson ($200) but should be be active (he hasn’t been for the last two weeks) he could have a role at the goal line.
I would also suggest that as this game has #1 seeding on the line the Niners Defense will be doing everything they can to shut down Russell Wilson and while I never like to bet against Danger Russ, I think the defense who put up 19 fantasy points against the Seahawks in Week 10 should be a part of your player pool.
As should Robbie Gould who over the last three weeks has recorded double digit fantasy points. Could will be a nice cheaper option for you especially on Seahawks heavy stacks as a come back option.
The only issue I have with the cheap Dante Pettis and other receivers is it is tough to trust the volume that they Wil receive and while anything can happen, and $200, is an excellent price, I’d prefer to stay away and pay for a lesser expensive Seahawk.
I like Jimmy G or Kittle as Captain paired with Samuel, Bourne and Gould and a Seahawk that you can afford.
Russell Wilson $10,000
Marshawn Lynch $5,000
Travis Homer $7,400
Tyler Locket $9,400
DK Metcalf $8,400
Jacob Hollister $5,000
Jason Myers $4,000
Robert Turbin $2,200
David Moore $1,400
Jaron Brown $1,200
The Seahawks will have a lot to overcome. With an entirely new backfield after Carson, Prosise and Penny all done for the season enter Homer, Lynch and Turbin. If I had to guess it will be Homer that leads the backfield as a recent practice squad call up he has been with the team and seen the playbook longer that his competition – however I would not be at all surprised to see Lynch get his fair share of action particularly on the goal line. The Seahawks worked Beastmode out this week and apparently were happy enough to sign him and Pete Carrol has said the same thing about both men – Ready to Go for this big time match up. Turbin has been a journeyman handcuff and while I could see him having a change of pace roll I think it will be the Homer Lynch combo for most of the work. The 49ers are giving up over 100 yards per game on the ground and I like the Seattle run game tonight to take the lead.
The last time Russell Wilson played the Niners he had 232 yards and 1 pick and 1 TD but also rushed for 53 yards. I’d expect a little more tonight with the Niners Defense coming in a little banged up – BUT Richard Sherman is back and I think he will create issues for DK Metcalf. I do like Tyler Lockett slightly better out of the slot, where the Niners have some issues covering …
How about Jacob Hollister though! This is a Tight End that has plays drawn up for him in this offense that can not be ignored!! Since week 9 he averages 6 targets per game and he is over due for a Touchdown. While the 49ers are 5th best against tight ends, Hollister’s last touchdown came against them – I like Hollister tonight.
Both Jaron Brown and David Moore can be looked at as salary relief as both get looks from Wilson especially on deeper passing opportunities.
With Jadaveon Clowney saying he will be in for Week 17, I think the Seahawks defense is a sneaky play tonight. Sacks and forced fumbles … they can happen and they can add up quick.
Lastly don’t forget Jason Myers as the last time these two teams played, the difference came down to a field goal and if both defenses get the job done, the kickers could be very valuable.
I like a Seahawks stack of Wilson with Lockett, Hollister, Homer or Lynch and Myers with a SF player running it back.
Good luck! #BeastMode