Wild Card DFS Weekend – Saturday AFC Games – Draft Kings Picks and Thoughts. It’s Go Time!

By Sean Weymouth

TW @delrayboston

Wild card weekend is here and back in week 9 who’d a thunk the Titans and Bills would be in the post season?! Or that the Patriots and Saints would be vying for a wild card win?! That is football. Unpredictable. Incredible.

So since there is only a four game slate I am going to break downy picks per game and not per team and will give you my thoughts on how these players should be used in lineups or not. Hope this helps you to win some Wild Card cash!! Draft Kings pricing will be shown, but my picks and plays are for wherever you may decide to play. Let’s go!

Bills vs Texans 1pm EST

Line is at 43

Houston is favored -3.0

– Deshawn Watson $6,500

– Josh Allen $6,400

– DeAndre Hopkins $7,700

– John Brown $6,000

– Wil Fuller (Q) $4,900

– Cole Beasley $5,600

– Kenny Stills $4,600

– Duke Williams $3,400

– DeAndre Carter $3,400

– KeKe Coutee $3,300

– Devin Singletary $6,000

– Carlos Hyde $5,100

– Duke Johnson $4,400

– Frank Gore $4,100

– Darren Fells $3,000

– Dawson Knox $2,900

– Jordan Aikins (Q) $2,800

– Tyler Kroft $2,800

– Jordan Thomas $2,500

– Bills DST $3,100

– Texans DST $2,600

Ok a couple quick notes. Wil Fuller is out. Kenny Stills is an excellent play and one that may be under owned on a slate with so many receiving options.

Also Jordan Aikins is a game time decision and if out it really means only more potential looks for Darren Fells. Of all starting tight ends with Red Zone upside on the slate, I think Fells will be completely unowned largely due to the Bills being 2nd Best in the league against the position – but at only $3k he makes an interesting play which will allow you more money to pay up at other spots.

John Brown and Cole Beasley are both excellent plays today as is Josh Allen. Now it does sound like JJ Watt will be back on the line for the Texans, but even still I think the Bills will get it done in the air today as the Texans have been bottom half of the league against the pass. Additionally Allen can run and often calls his own number at the goal line. I especially like a Beasley Allen stack here as the Texans have been particularly bad against slog receivers.

DeAndre Hopkins is probably the most interesting play today as he will likely see the Bills star corner Tre’Davius White at least 60% of the time. I think people will be wary of this matchup especially with Fuller sitting. A low owned Hopkins in a home playoff game – I am not afraid.

Without Fuller on the field Kenny Stills has absorbed a great target share and has performed. 15.1 points in week 13, 18.5 in week 16 … I think Stills is a must play, especially if you are buying into the above Hopkins vs White narrative.

I like Devin Singletary an awful lot here. He is the clear bell cow in a very fast moving Bills offense and I like to see him catching balls out of the backfield. The one thing to watch for though is Josh Allen calling his own number or the ever present Frank Gore rifling a one yard dive over the goal line.

I also like Carlos Hyde today. As good as the Bills have been against the pass, they have been beatable on the ground and Bill O’Brien loves him some Carlos Hyde. I actually prefer Hyde over the Duke. I understand the narrative that Watson will need to rely on Duke for check downs and that is valid, however I also believe that will drive his ownership up versus the more expensive Hyde who will out touch Johnson even in a negative game script.

Dawson Knox, KeKe Coutee, DeAndre Carter, Tyler Kroft – I just don’t trust the volume they receive and unless Jordan Aikins sits, I also can’t see Jordan Thomas seeing a single route let alone a target. I am slightly interested in Rookie Duke Williams for the Bills. With the starters off in week 17 Williams went off taking 6 catches for over 100 yards. He may be a largely overlooked cheap option today if you are desperate.

Lastly Josh Allen and Deshawn Watson. Both are in play though I prefer Allen to Watson here. While Watson is at home, the Bills Defense has a great way of limiting quarterbacks and air yards. I think Allen has the better day. If stacking I am going Allen, Brown, Beasley or Allen, Bealsey, Singletary. With Watson you can’t escape the Hopkins play and now that Fuller is not playing it is possible Stills sees more attention especially at his price. A contrarian stack may be Watson, Hopkins, Fells … though Stills is likely the better play.

Also I would think that this would be the game to choose your defense from as both come in at good prices. I expect the Texans to have more ownership due to their price, but both are in play here.

The Patriots vs The Titans 8:15pm

The Line is at 44.5

The Patriots are favored -5.0

Tom Brady $5,800

Ryan Tannehill $6,300

Derek Henry $8,200

Sony Michel $4,600

Dion Lewis $4,200

James White $5,700

Rex Burkhead $4,500

Julian Edelman (Q) $6,500

AJ Brown $7,400

Mohammed Sanu $3,900

N’Keal Harry $4,100

Corey Davis $3,800

Tajae Sharpe $3,800

Phillip Dorsett $3,200

Jakobi Meyers $3,100

Ben Watson $2,700

Jonuu Smith $3,800

Matt LaCrosse $2,600

Anthony Firsker $2,500

Between the two AFC games today I think this one, despite being in prime time, will be the less explosive. The Patriots Defense has been exposed recently, yes – but a home playoff matchup and week of planning for the Pats … I think the Pats’ Boogeymen show up in force. While this may be an issue for Ryan Tannethrill, I actually like Derek Henry. The volume, his size and style and the Titans offensive line put Henry in play for me. Also I think people are forgetting Dion Lewis was a part of Patriots Super Bowl teams in the past. Don’t be surprised if Lewis has a sneaky good day against his old team especially on third downs through the air. I think Henry is an excellent play and Lewis is a sneaky flex play too.

The Pats backfield is a tough one to crack but I like Sony Michel today too. If you look at his performance in the playoffs last year, it is quite possible Michel steps up in this game and with Full Back James Declan healthy and leading the way, Michel is an awesome play especially at his price.

James White is in the circle of trust – we know. White also has a knack for showing up when it counts. White is in an excellent spot to lead the Pats in targets especially with Edelman banged up. However I’d expect White to be the most popular Patriot play and possibly one of the top 3 most popular plays on the entire slate. A contrarian play here may be to pivot to Rex Burkhead who has been involved since returning from the injury earlier in the season. Flexy Rexy has been stealing rushes and targets from Michel and White and will be involved. Who can forget Burkhead’s own Super Bowl performance after all. Rex also has been seeing goal line carries and targets and at a big discount to White, he (like Lewis) could be a very sneaky Flex play for salary savings.

AJ Brown vs Stefon Gilmore. I’m excited to see this matchup. If you buy into the narrative that Gilmore will be on Brown like glue, stay away. Gilmore isn’t the Defensive Player of the year for nothing. That should open things up for Corey Davis and Tajae Sharpe to operate. Of the two I prefer Sharpe as I believe Davis’ ownership will be sky high due to the price.

Julian Edelman and the Pats receivers are certainly head scratching. Last week it was Dorsett who saw the most profitable targets. The week before a game Edelman stepped up. The week before it was N’Keal Harry. With Edelman again being labeled as questionable, I am concerned he will be more of a decoy out there than a stud. I will have lineups with Edelman but I also will pivot to Dorsett over Harry and Sanu. Dorsett has emerged as Brady’s deep look and if Brady connects for 1 or 2 that could be a nice game for Phillip.

Speaking of Brady – I prefer Tannehill in this game but honestly prefer Allen or Watson over either. While anything can happen, I think the Titans will rely heavily on Derek Henry and that will keep Tannehill’s volume low. Tom Brady has just not been himself lately and while I will have a share, he isn’t a priority. There is a chance that the Patriots also rely on their running backs here – especially since Titans star corner Adorre’ Jackson looks to be back.

If stacking I am going Brady or Tannehill, Edelman, Henry, Burkhead, Dorsett. Pats D.

Good luck out there today!!

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