Kyler Murray has been a massive riser in fantasy drafts this offseason, but will he live up to the hype?
The Cardinals have been active this offseason, and have made a few moves that will have significant fantasy impact. The traded away David Johnson and signed Kenyon Drake, allowing Drake to take the lead back role in the offense. The bigger news, is the trade for Deandre Hopkins from the Houston Texans. This along with Kyler now having a full year in the offense, has seen Kyler’s ADP skyrocket. Kyler is currently going around pick 64, and is the 5th QB taken off the board. The 4 above him are Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, and Russell Wilson.
So let’s break it down a bit. Kyler was electric last year, finishing as QB 8. He averaged 17.8pts per game, which was QB 11 for all QB’s who played 7 or more games. Murray hasn’t missed a game in college or the pros, showing that even at his size and with his unique playstyle, he’s durable. So what sets Kyler apart from other QB’s? RUSHING POTENTIAL. Although the addition of Hopkins is big, the largest reason Kyler was successful as a rookie was his rushing.
|Rush Yds||Rush TD’s||Fantasy Pts|
Kyler’s rushing accounted for 27% of his fantasy points. Rushing is something that takes QB’s to the next level. Kyler was 4th in QB rushing fantasy points, and every QB in the top 5 (5th is Russell Wilson) finished as a top 10 fantasy QB. Every QB in the top 10 had at least 200 rushing yards except for Aaron Rodgers (183yds) Out of the top 5 rushers, Kyler finished the lowest at QB 8. Here is why this is important. If Kyler MAINTAINS his rushing production. Not improve, just stay at par, and improves his passing (which added Deandre Hopkins) he could very well be a top 5 fantasy QB. What it also means is that Kyler has a high floor. Even at his worst, Kyler should be a top 15 QB from week to week due to his rushing, as he averages almost 5 fantasy points a game due to his legs.
We’ve talked a ton about Kyler’s athleticism, but what about his arm? Kyler Murray hasn’t excelled with the deep ball this year; I don’t think he needs to in order to excel in this offense. His average depth of target should increase with Hopkins added to the mix. Kyler threw 20 TD and 12 INTs last year. If he can improve on those numbers, and that offense improves, he should be much better in 2020.
So what happens next? Kyler is currently the 5th QB being drafted. The Cardinals have the 8th pick in the draft. I don’t anticipate them drafting a “Fantasy Relevant” player, as they just signed a RB, and traded for Hopkins. What will help Kyler is if they draft an offensive tackle with the 8th overall pick, at that spot some of the best tackles in the draft, if not the best tackle. Long story short, I believe the Murray hype. While I wouldn’t reach for him, I think he has a lot of value at pick 64.
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