Week 1 DFS Strategy: Picks, Proceed with Caution & Green Means Go!

Week 1 of the NFL Season is finally here and I am one of many who will be playing Draft Kings and Fanduel NFL DFS. Here is a peek inside my mind, who am I looking at and why and a couple new features I am introducing – one player to Proceed with Caution on and one Player the Light is Green For – So Let’s Go! Starting with Quarterback I will give you my picks for High Priced and Value plays.

This has been updated at 10:15am Sunday Morning so there will be discussions of Injury news for some players. I am not going to hit on every injured player just the ones relevant to the article. For the most up to date information on injuries and who is in or out follow ESPN or NFL News on Twitter and do yourself a favor and set an alert to get a push notification. Especially in the 4:25 games, you can get up to date info instantly and swap a player out or update your lineup. Worst thing in the world is paying a $10 Entry Fee on a Single Entry contest and leaving it alone only to find a goose egg next to your high priced receiver or running back.

Lastly this article will not cover the Sunday Night Game or the Monday Night Double Header. I will be back to separately cover those games. Make sure to bookmark RealDealFantasyHQ.com and set a google alert – also our You Tube Page – Real Deal Fantasy HQ. The best coverage in the industry is right here.

QUARTERBACK

High Priced Option: Drew Brees $6,800 DK, $8,100 FD

No one is talking about Drew Brees and I think Drew Brees is listening to that silence. Much like a powerful hurricane ripping through the bayou, I think Drew Brees is a powder keg ready to explode against Tom Brady and the much talked about Buccaneers. Brees has the best receiver in football in Michael Thomas who is in a great matchup against Todd Bowles Tampa Bay Defense. While the Bucs have upgraded their defense over the off season if we are looking at the defensive schemes rolled out last year – the run defense is far superior to the pass and look at the additional weapons Brees has at his disposal. Mike Thomas, Big Jarrod Cook the Tight End, Newly Acquired Emmanuel Sanders and oh yeah arguably the best pass catching back in the NFL (with a new contract I might add) Alvin Kamara. The line for this game has come down due to the news of Mike Evans injury, but I still like Brees to go out and get people talking again about him and his Saints. Early tournament ownership on Brees is hovering in the 5% range on both sites too. Be Contrarian – start your team with Brees!

Other High Price QBs to note: Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz

Value QB Option: Philip Rivers $6,000 DK, $7,100 FD

Ok sticker shock right – $7,100 is a value on Fan Duel? It is – remember Fan Duel has a higher salary cap for your team than Draft Kings. Why do I have Philip Rivers here – it’s the proverbial chip on the shoulder that has me leaning this way. His tenure with the Chargers was tumultuous. But every indication from Colts camp has been that we are seeing a revitalized Rivers and he can’t ask for a better matchup for his debut. The Jacksonville defense is in disarray to say the least and he now has a healthy TY Hilton to throw too. Big Jack Doyle and his soft hands will replace Hunter Henry for Phil and you also have a second year player in Parris Campell who also has something to prove coming of an injury maligned rookie campaign. Now there is a chance that the Colts rush the ball 50 times in this game against the poor Jacksonville line – so I do also like Marlon Mack and Jonathan Taylor in this game – but to save some money I think Big Game Phil is a guy I will have in some lineups and at 2% projected ownership across the board I like him even more. By the way, early indicators has TY Hilton as one of the most highly owned receivers in Daily Fantasy Tournaments today. Stacking him with 2% owned Rivers is an easy way to be contrarian. Just Sayin

Other Value QBs I I like: Derek Carr, Tyrod Taylor, Teddy Bridgewater

RUNNING BACK

High Priced RB: Austin Ekeler $7,000 DK $7,700 FD

Look I am not going to sit here and tell you if you can afford $10K+ Christian McCaffery – you play Christian McCaffery against the Raiders…but what I am going to tell you is that for $3,000 less Austin Ekeler could very well help you cash and I for sure like to save $3,000 on a Back that has 25 Point Upside – especially in a matchup that could very well be a under the radar shoot out featuring the #1 Draft Pick Joe Burrow. Do you remember the first 4 weeks of last season when Melvin Gordon sat out and Austin Ekeler likely won you your fantasy weeks? Well Gordon is a Bronco, buster and now it is time to see Austin Ekeler shine. Did you see the dudes vertical leaping on Hard Knocks this season – holy smokes. I like Austin Ekeler to shine this week and I will be playing a lot of him. Now there is a narrative that with the often frisky Tyrod Taylor under center those dump off passes won’t be as prevalent for Ekeler but I lean on the coaching staff here. They know they have a stud in Ek and I think he will be featured heavily. I also think that with Kamara, McCaffery, Cook and Jacobs all available – the field will over look Austin Ekeler. I will not.

Other High Priced RB to Note: Christian McCaffery, Josh Jacobs, Aaron Jones

Value Running Back: Boston Scott $4,800 DK, $4,700 FD

Last night the Eagles announced that Myles Sanders will be out today – news flash! Enter Boston Scott who is the clear and healthy backup for Myles Sanders. Scott at $4,800 and $4,700 will be CHALK today for sure. A starting running back for under $5K? C’mon … oh wait and he’s playing the Washington Football Team? And his own team is having trouble keeping Wide Receivers on the field? EAT THE CHALK – Boston Scott could smash here and allow you so much space with your roster construction. Oh you want to figure out how to fit Michael Thomas and Davante Adams on the same lineup – start with Boston Scott. I did and I’m not looking back.

Other Value RBs of Note: Sony Michel, Raheem Mostert, Deandre Swift (Yes his Injury Tag has been lifted!)

WIDE RECEIVER:

High Priced Option: Davante Adams $7,300 DK $8,000 FD

Do I really need to tell you Davante Adams is good at Football? No. But with the news of Mike Evans potentially sitting I do need to tell you that the field you will be playing against in DFS today will flock to Chris Godwin. No problem – let ’em. Godwin is a great play every week but with a clear path to over 100 yards today he is a great play. But so is Davante Adams. Aaron Rogers has spent an entire offseason having to field questions about his team’s faith in him. Additionally an entire offseason hearing every analyst say his 2019 season shows his time is coming to an end. Guess what – I love a guy with a chip on his shoulder if you haven’t already guessed. Therefore if I believe Rogers will be throwing today – I believe in the guy he is throwing to. Additionally throw in the Vikings Defense who has had a lot of shuffling of the deck to say the least and I have a feeling Davante Adams may very well break the DFS slate. Get a piece of the action. I will be.

Other High Priced WR to Note: Chris Godwin, Michael Thomas, Julio Jones

Value WR: Desean Jackson $4,900 DK $5,700 FD

Desean Jackson can’t stay healthy. The Eagles Wide Receivers can’t stay healthy. When will Cason Wentz finally break out. Yada Yada. Seriously look at Week 1 2019 and who was the #1 Fantasy Scorer in Football – Desean Jackson. He is healthy and has had from all reports a stellar training camp. He has a report with Carson Wentz – look at Week 1 last year and tell me he doesn’t. Yes rookie Jalen Raegor will play today but I don’t care. If Wentz and the Eagles want to put away the Washington Football team they will target Desean Jackson early and often and more often than not that translates to Touchdowns. Then they will shove Boston Scott down the WFT’s throat and eat the clock – oh, could that be a hint at a low priced WR RB stack I’m rolling out today? HMMM….

Other Value WR to Consider: Mavin Jones Jr, Henry Ruggs, Kendrick Bourne, Steven Simms Jr.

TIGHT END

High Value Tight End: Mark Andrews $6,000 DK, $7,400 FD

Yes – George Kittle is on this slate. Yes George Kittle makes for a phenomenal play today against Arizona (I know, they have upgraded their TE defense – believe it when you see it) but for a little less I’m playing Mark Andrews. I want a piece of the Baltimore Ravens offense and Mark Andrews is the piece I am targeting. We have heard the hype – the Cleveland Browns defense may surprise you this season. Again, believe it when you see it. Andrews is a clear target for Lamar Jackson and is every bit as important to this game plan as Hollywood Brown or Mark Ingram – both players who have been much talked about in this offseason. I think Andrews has 6 Catches 75 Yard and 2 Score potential in this matchup and I think the field will be overlooking him with George Kittle just above him in price. The common rule in DFS is if you aren’t paying all the way up at a position, pay all the way down. Today I’m playing in the middle. I’m playing Mark Andrews.

Other High Priced TEs of Note: George Kittle, Darren Waller, Zach Ertz

Value Tight End: Jordan Reed $3,000 DK $4,500 FD

Yes – Jordan Reed is playing a game! Ok so this should be listed as a true DFS Dart Throw but when Jordan Reed is healthy there are few Tight Ends in history that can match his speed and athelticism. But he has George Kittle ahead of him – true. But with Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk both not playing today I think you will see a lot of two Tight End sets today from the 49ers and if indeed the Cardinals have upgraded their TE defense I think that upgrade will be focused on Kittle which could potentially open the door for Jordan Reed to have a nice day. And at that cheap price again you can do so much with roster construction. Plus – NO ONE is going to play Jordan Reed today. But I will. Don’t think you can build a lineup with Thomas, Julio and Adams together – Put Reed in your TE spot and Boston Scott in your Flex and the world is your oyster.

Other Value TEs to Consider: Hayden Hurst, TJ Hockenson, Greg Olsen

DSTs I am Looking at today:

Eagles vs Washington

Colts vs Jacksonville

Lions vs Chicago

Jets vs Buffalo

Finally my new segments:

Proceed with Caution: Josh Allen QB Buffalo Bills

The hype on the Bills is huge. Josh Allen is coming in with new weapons and a new sense of winning. I get it. I am not saying don’t roster Josh Allen – but at $6,500 on DK and $7,900 on FD – I am going to stay away. Does he have the potential to absolutely smash with his running ability and Stefon Diggs running down the sideline – YES. But it feels like a trap game for me. First the Bills could go out ahead early and never look back running the ball for 3 quarters and Allen’s passing yards end low. Second – what if the Jets play spoiler and possibly – WIN? It’s a real possibility – the Jets were one of the Bill’s toughest opponents last season and are returning 99% of their defensive starters this year. Proceed with caution on Josh Allen is all I am saying.

Green means GO: Josh Jacobs RB LV Raiders

John Gruden was legitimately upset that Josh Jacobs was snubbed for Offensive Rookie of the year last year. The Grinder is going to Grind today and his weapon of choice – Josh Jacobs. What a matchup as well with a Carolina Defense that looks more like a slice of Swiss Cheese. There is real Potential for 20+ touches for Josh Jacobs today and with that he is a lock to SMASH this spot. All of the hype on the Raiders has been on the young rookie receivers and Derek Carr. What if Jacobs just takes over this game and dominates from jump. I’d rather take that shot than trying to figure out who between Ruggs and Edwards will be the break out – wouldn’t you? He isn’t cheap at $8,200 on Fan Duel $6,800 on DK but Green Means Go for Josh Jacobs for me …

You can find me on Twitter at @DelRayBoston

Good Luck in your Contests!

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