Hopefully you got a chance to read my DFS strategy and picks for Game 1 of tonight’s double header and you made some great picks in that game. I am sorry I couldn’t get the preview out for game 2 sooner but I had to make a Steak Tip Dinner for my wife … Football Household – Priorities, Priorities
So while you dine on Big Ben carving up a tasty turkey leg from the Giant’s Secondary allow me to give you some DFS Strategy and a few picks for the Late Night Showdown Slates featuring the Tennessee Titans and the Denver Broncos. Now if you have had some tough luck with DFS this weekend, that’s ok. The LATE NIGHT HAMMER can make you home again and that is what this game is shaping up to be. So don’t fall asleep, check out my picks, set some lineups and let’s cash cash cash!
TITANS HAMMER 1: Derek Henry DK Captain $17,400, Flex $11,600, FD $15,500
I think that there will be some reticence from a lot of players tonight from drafting Derek Henry believe it or not. Many savy DFS Players will be quick to see his price tag and check the “game log” and see that Henry only scored 4.3 Fantasy Points last season against the Denver Broncos and go – uh oh. But here’s the thing. That was Week 3 of last year. Do you remember early season Titan’s Fooytball? Marcus Mariotta. Dion Lewis. Yeah… some things have changed since then and one of those things is that this offense now runs through Derek Henry. Something else to think about too is that Week 3 of last year the Broncos were rolling out a defense featuring Von Miller and Chris Harris. Guess what – neither are going to be on the field tonight. Now we should give the Denver Defense some props. They will play Henry tough tonight. But I believe he gets his. I believe he gets a lot of his. Even if he only falls in the end zone 3 times, he gets you yours. Hammer UP – Derek Henry!
TITANS Hammer 2: Ryan Tannehill DK Captain $15,000 Flex $10,000 FD $15,000
Efficiency is the KEY. Ryan Tannehill is efficient and in that efficiency is a Quarterback who over the last 9 games of the 2019 season he threw multiple passing touchdowns in all but 1. Additionally he has thrown for over 200 yards and rushed for an average of 15 additional yards in all but 2 of those games. In those 7 Games he has also gone for Double Digit Fantasy Points and by the way NONE of those games were against a Von Miller-Chris Harris-Less Denver Broncos Defense. Tannehill is a fine start tonight as well. In fact, he may be my favorite start in the Captain/MVP position in Showdown Tournaments on the Titans.
TITANS Hammer 3: AJ Brown DK Captain $12,900, Flex $8,600 FD $11,500
Stud. That’s all you can say about AJ Brown. In his rookie campaign he averaged 12.5 Yards per target on 84 targets and is that sustainable – likely not. However he is clearly the #1 Target of Ryan Tannehill and when then Titans are going to go to the air he is the first look. Probably the second look too. Here is the thing though. The run first style of play that the Titans employ doesn’t require AJ Brown to see 15 Targets in a game to get you what you need. He could see 3 and two of them could be 45 yard plays. He is a great option tonight as he is coming into the game without injury distinction. Additionally Corey Davis is coming into the game questionable. Play AJ Brown. Stack him with Tannehill. It will be a chalk play but it will be worth it. Especially if the Broncos can keep this game close, Brown could see a lot of targets tonight – and we have seen what he can do with only a few. What if he got 10 targets tonight… sky is the limit.
TITANS Mini Hammer: Jonnu Smith DK Captain $8,700, Flex $5,800, FD $7,000
Especially if Corey Davis sits, I like Jonnu Smith a lot in this game to be a sneaky play. With Delanie Walker gone, Smith is the clear top option for the Titan’s starting tight end and much like the Steelers in my previous article – the Broncos are middle of the pack against the position. But I should point out that ranking is based on 2019 when Chris Harris was roaming the middle of the field. I also think a lot of DFS Players will overlook Smith with the much hyped Noah Fans on this slate. If I play Smith I will pair with Tannehill and potentially AJ Brown. But even playing him tonight naked is fine with me (not you naked, I mean not in a stack haha). This is a DART THROW but I do have a hunch that, especially if Corey Davis sits, Jonnu will get some looks – potentially in the Red Zone as Well.
BRONCOS Hammer 1: Drew Lock DK Captain $14,000, Flex $9,600, FD $14,500
There is a lot of expectation on second year QB Drew Lock and it does feel like this is going to be a tough game against a Stingy Titans Defense, but believe it or not – I like him tonight for DFS. Yes Courtland Sutton is doubtful but look at the weapons Lock still has at his disposal. Two GREAT Pass Catching Running backs providing lightning and thunder in Melvin Gordon and Philip Lindsey. Easily the most heralded rookie wide receiver in the slot in Jerry Jeudy. Two speedsters along the sideline in Desean Hamilton and Tim Patrick. How about Big Noah Want running in the seam with his soft hands. And could the other rookie sensation KJ Hamler make it on the field? Well likely not – but what I am saying is that as much as this could be a run heavy defense laden low scoring game, it could be a late night shootout and if that is the case it’s going to be young Drew Lock pressing the issue. He is my favorite Bronco Start in any showdown tonight.
Broncos Hammer 2a: Melvin Gordon DK Captain $12,000, Flex $8,000, FD $13,000
Broncos Hammer 2b: Phillip Lindsey DK Captain $11,400, Flex $7,600, FD $10,000
Yes I know Royce Freeman is also in the backfield but for Showdown tournaments tonight I am going to employ an interesting strategy. If I roster one, I’m rostering the other on the same team. There seemed to be a lot of confusion in the offseason on which one would get the start, which one was going to lead the backfield. I see this a little simpler. They are going to split the job. Both of these guys are talented backs. Both can run, both can catch. Both have been big time pieces of their respective offenses. So what’s wrong with a lightning and thunder approach. Or rather lightning lightning or thunder thunder – whichever you prefer to call it. Both figure to be prominent parts of the game plan for the Broncos and so if I start one I am starting the other. Call me crazy, but if they both catch or run 2 touchdowns, you’ll call me a few dollars richer.
Broncos Mini Hammer: DaeSean Hamilton DK Captain $2,700 Flex $1,800 FD $6,500
With the news of Courtland Sutton being doubtful and the likelihood of Tim Patrick starting in his place, I started to like DaeSean Hamilton a little less. It’s not that I don’t like the player but if I am scheming the Titans Defense as soon as the Sutton news broke I’m scheming to shut down Hamilton. Can it be done? We shall see – but especially if I am mass multi entering, I am going to be underweight on my shares of Hamilton. However at only $1,800 on DK – he is worth some shots but he will be uber popular due to the price. An interesting contrarian way to go would be to play Hamilton with both Gordon and Lindsay instead of with Lock. I know crazy as it sounds, but dare to be different.
I should add here, I will also be underweight of my shares of Tim Patrick. If for any other reason than at only $2,800 on DK, he will be uber popular as a cheap option and if a player is going to be chalk you need him to smash and I don’t see Patrick smashing here.
Broncos Hammer 3: Jerry Jeudy DK Captain $10,800, Flex $7,200, FD $8,000
I do like Jerry Jeudy a lot here though. Even though this will be his first NFL Game, I think the Broncos are going to look to Jeudy in the slot early and often. The Titans have a great defense and I’m starting them in 2 out of my 3 main fantasy leagues tonight – BUT I do believe in the talent of Jeudy and if the Broncos want to open up space for Thunder and Lightning to run through or even to get the deep ball to Hamilton to open up, I think that middle of the field to Jeudy will be a way to make both happen. Plus – he’s just really good. I’m taking my shot.
Broncos Hammer 4: Noah Fant DK Captain $9,300 Flex $6,200, FD $8,500
I mean can we say Noah Fantastic? Nope – we can’t, yet. But Maybe We Can – after tonight. I think the news of Courtland Sutton being doubtful has had the Broncos taking a bigger look at the big man. Yes the Titans have a great defensive line. Yes the Titans have a good to great secondary. But the Titans in 2019 ranked in the bottom ⅓ of the league against Tight Ends. Boom. Let’s go. I also don’t know how popular of a play Fant will be tonight with Jeudy just ahead of him in price and Desean Hamilton or Tim Patrick much below him in price. He may end up being a contrarian piece of a stack with Lock and that is what we look for in large field DFS tournaments.
My bottom line tonight is I think that a lot of money will be on the Titans side of this game – with good reason – but as you build your lineups you will find that the Broncos present a much more interesting play. Let’s say Derek Henry goes for 150 and 3 on the ground… it’s not like the Broncos aren’t going to try and answer. Sometimes the chase is good… it is for babyfaces in wrestling, it could be for your DFS Plays tonight too.
Oh – but I will hedge all my bets with a lineup featuring the Titans Defense and Broncos Kicker Brandon McManus and another featuring the Broncos Defense and Titans Kicker Stephen Gostowski. I could be wrong on all of the above and it just becomes a defensive slugfest. Better to have a backup plan than none at all.
Good Luck in your Contests.