Week 2 DFS Strategy & Picks – A tale of stars and scrubs!

It’s pretty amazing that we are only on Week 2 of the NFL Season and so many injuries have occurred. Michael Thomas – Out against the Raiders. Kenny Golladay – Out against the Packers. Chris Godwin – Out against the Panthers. AJ Brown – Out against the Jaguars. These are some of the major stories that have dominated the last 24 hours. While we won’t talk about Michael Thomas and Monday Night Football here, the remainder of the injuries I mention above aren’t just important to note for Season Long Fantasy managers – they are going to impact today’s DFS Main Slate, opening up value and interesting plays that can give your lineups a chance to lock in high priced stud plays and stack games that can really make an impact.

What I’d like to do here is highlight some of my targets in my DFS lineups like I normally do, but also give some strategy that I am employing as I am building my own lineups. I hope it can help you to build better lineups too – We All Want to CASH! So let’s see what we damage we can do!

Quarterback

High Price Target: Lamar Jackson $8,200 DK $9,500 FD

There are a lot of great games to target for Fantasy Points and DFS contests today. For instance – Atlanta vs Dallas which had the highest projected point total via the Vegas Oddsmakers. Other games like Minnesota vs Indianapolis and Tampa Bay vs Carolina also have the potential to break the slate by the players involved. So why am I targeting the reigning MVP? Because I think here in Week 2, paying UP at Quarterback will be CONTRARIAN. Let’s take a look at Draft Kings pricing quickly. Lamar Jackson costs $1,400 more than Dak Prescott and $1,600 more than Matt Ryan. Both of those players in what could be a shootout will be EXTREMELY Popular in tournaments. He’s also $1,500 more than Josh Allen going against Miami, $1,600 more than Tom Brady playing Carolina and almost a full $2,000 more than Kirk Cousins and Phillip Rivers. He’s even $1,000 more than Patrick Mahomes. NO ONE is going to pay and play Lamar Jackson with so many other juicy and cheaper targets on the slate – and that is how I plan to be different.

Last week against the Browns, Jackson put on a show. He completed 20 of 25 passes for 275 yards and 3 Touchdowns. He additionally ran for 45 yards. 27.5 Fantasy Points. Today he goes up against a Houston Texans team that he has in the past dominated and he has a real chance to do so again. His number one receiver Hollywood Brown has a great matchup. Last week 101 of Jackson’s 275 yards went Brown’s way and against a Texas secondary that was just carved up by the Chiefs, he can eat. Tight End Mark Andrews has a great matchup today. Two of Jackson’s three Touchdown passes went his way last week. He can eat. Mark Ingram and JK Dobbins are in great spots to smash. The thing is, all of the individual players will be MORE Popular than Jackson himself because of his price tag. Dare to be different – PAY UP at Quarterback, Pay Up for Lamar Jackson. Differentiate your play of Brown or Andrews by stacking them with Jackson. Just think of it this way. If Dak Prescott (estimated to be the most highly owned QB on the slate) scores 28 Fantasy Points and Jackson (estimated to be less than 5% owned on the slate) scores 28 Fantasy Points and you played Jackson – you are suddenly different than most of the players you are going against and have a real chance to cash should the rest of your lineup come through. It’s my strategy today.

Additional High Price Targets: Pat Mahomes, Aaron Rogers, Dak Prescott

Value QB Play: Mitch Trubisky $5,500 DK $7,200 FD

Oh do I feel dirty recommending “Miracle” Mitch, but how can you not like him against the Giants today and what is a very suspect defense? We just saw Ben Roethlisberger drop 3 Touchdowns on the G Men in his first game back since Week 2 of 2019. You know who else thew for 3 Touchdowns last week against a Suspect defense? Yup – twitchy Mitchy here. Now he comes into this matchup with his #1 receiver with a chip on his shoulder and ready to prove he’s worth a contract (See Allen Robinson deleting all mention of his team from all of his social media accounts, then saying “I’m cool with the Bears’ when asked about it as reference). He also has his #2 receiver, developing immediately as a threat and with one of the best WR CB matchups of the week. The Bears defense is not the Bears defense from 2 years ago. This could be a sneaky shootout and If so, I’ll take a shot on the gunslinger for only $5,500. Additionally, with Jimmy G only $400 more and going against the terrible Jets – I think Trubisky will go largely unowned as most players will see Garoppolo being a more reliable option without realizing the troubles that offense has keeping their playmakers on the field (George Kittle will not play today – btw). If you aren’t going to pay all the way up at QB, go the other way and pay (almost) all the way down. Take a shot on Trubisky.

Other Values of note: Jimmy Garropolo, Gardner Minshew, Tyrod Taylor

Running Back

High Price Target: Derek Henry $7,900 DK $8,300 FD

You play Derek Henry against the Jaguars. It’s just a thing you do. This is a team that in the past he has literally dominated. Remember 2018 – Derek Henry takes a 99 yard to the house and a total of 238 yards against, the Jags? Did you know that against the Jaguars Derek Henry averages over 6.2 yards per carry? Don’t let last week fool you. It took Henry 29 touches to break the Hundred yard mark and he ended the game with 116 yards on 32 touches averaging 3.2 yards per carry. That was a tough game for Derek Henry. But you know what can make that big man forget about that game – a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. You play Derek Henry against the Jaguars.

Other High Price Targets: Ezekiel Elliot, Saquon Barkley, Clyde Edwards-Halaire

*Quick Note on Saquon Barkley. Coupled with his price tag and a 6 total yard performance against the Steelers, I expect him to be extremely underowned in tournaments today and that is a mistake. Much like Lamar Jackson above, paying up for Barkley on Sunday against the Bears could pay you dividends. This is a stud athlete who has had to hear all week how he “sucked” on Monday Night. Want to get a player with a chip on his shoulder and 25 Point upside that is potentially less than 10% owned in tournaments? I do.

Value Pick: Ronald Jones II $5,200 DK $5,900 FD

I think many people would think I would write about Jonathan Taylor who now will lead the Colts backfield. Or they may have thought I’d talk about JK Dobbins who scored 2 touchdowns last week on a Lamar Jackson lead offense. Both those guys make for great plays no doubt but for me, if I’m not paying up for Henry or Barkley, I’m paying down and taking Angry Tom Brady’s lead running back. Yes, Brady is angry. I’ve seen it before. Brady loses, throws interceptions and underwhelms. The next week – look out opponents. This week’s opponent ready for Brady to carve up – the Carolina Panthers. If I’m paying down, I want the guy most likely to have those goal line runs with Brady under center. You could do way worse for more money, than what Jones can do for you against the Panthers.

Other Value Targets: Nyheim Hines, James Robinson, Antonio Gibson

Wide Receiver

High Priced Target: Adam Thielen $7,200 DK $7,300 FD

With the Atlanta Dallas game on this slate, I think receivers in great matchups like the one Theilen has on Sunday agains the Colts will go underowned. Why not – Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Amari Cooper – those will be priorities. But I think Theilen is a priority for me. In his first game without Stefon Diggs, Theilan balled out going 6 for 110 and 2 Touchdowns. Now the Vikings come into this game down 0 – 1 and needing a win and I think Theilan will be a big part of this game plan and with the Vikings deploying a shaky secondary, Cousins and Theilen could find themselves in a shootout and one that many playing DFS players won’t have a piece of not named Dalvin Cook or either of the Colts RBs. I like Theilen to have another strong game and paying up for him will also differentiate your lineups as I suspect that the much less expensive TY Hilton on the other side of this game will be EXTREMELY popular.

Other High Price Targets: Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans

Value Pick: Scotty Miller $4,100 DK $5,200 FD

Want to know how I’d be able to start Lamar Jackson, Saquon Barkley and Derek Henry on one lineup? Scotty Miller. No Chris Godwin today opens up opportunities and while I think Evans will see a larger share of targets than he did last week, I think it also gives a lot of opportunity for Miller who is expected to start opposite Evans on the outside. Scotty Miller impressed during training camp by all accounts and developed a real report with Tom Brady. Last week he took 6 catches for 73 yards and even ran a end around for 6 more yards. Now if due to the Godwin absence Miller gets 8 – 10 targets, I could easily see him cross the century mark and possibly even nabbing a touchdown. That is the type of Cheap Dart throws I love in DFS. I’ll be playing a lot of Scotty Miller.

Other Value Picks: Brandon Aiyuk, Russell Gage, Parris Campbell

Tight End

High Priced Target: Mark Andrews $6,300 DK $7,500 FD

If I am going to recommend Lamar Jackson, how can I not recommend his #1 Red Zone Target? Seriously – 2 Touchdown Catches for Mark Andrews including a spectacular 1 handed grab along the baseline of the end zone. In 2019 Mark Andrews broke out as one of the Elite Plays for tight ends and he is already off to a strong start with the win over the Browns. Now he gets the Houston Texans and their 26th ranked defense to ply his trade with on Sunday. With no George Kittle on the slate, I think Andrews and Kelce will be extremely popular. That’s ok – differentiate and stack Andrews with Jackson! Double count another 2 touchdown performance for Andrews with Jackson and you could be seeing GREEN next to your score!

Other High Priced Targets: Travis Kelce, Hunter Henry, TJ Hockenson

Value Pick: Logan Thomas $3,700 DK $4,700 FD

Who is Logan Thomas you may ask? Why he is the #1 Tight End for the Washington Football Team and he scored a Touchdown last week and saw four targets. Now he gets to play against the Arizona Cardinals who through 2019 are ranked dead last against Tight Ends. The Washington Football Team will be playing catchup in this game against the High Powered Cardinals offense which means Dwayne Haskins will be throwing. With Scary Terry McLaurin likely seeing a lot of Pro Bowler Patrick Peterson in the secondary, I like Thomas’s chances to be a security blanket for Haskins and I like him for another touchdown as well. And his price tag is so nice, you wish you could play him twice!

Other Value Picks: Mo Alie-Cox, Chris Herndon, Jimmy Graham

Defenses I am playing:

San Francisco vs NY Jets

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Kansas City Chiefs vs LA Chargers

LA Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles

PROCEED WITH CAUTION PICK:

Corey Davis. No doubt, Corey Davis had a great game against the Broncos on Monday Night Football in Week 1. However I am choosing him as my proceed with caution today because of a few reasons. First – we have seen it before. Davis also had a great Week 1 in 2019. Then we saw the rest of the season for Corey Davis. Ugh. Second – No one seems to be talking about one of the big reasons why Davis was consistently wide open was because of the attention that was being given to stop AJ Brown. Well in Week 2, there will be no AJ Brown to pull the attention away from Davis. Davis will be the defecto AJ Brown today. Can he handle that? I don’t know. Lastly – this will be a Derek Henry game and I expect Tannehill’s passing volume to be low. Now sure Corey Davis could exceed my expectations and he is a cheap play across the board, but for me I am staying away and I advise you to Proceed with Caution.

GREEN MEANS GO PLAYER

Davante Adams. Wow what a performance Adams put on in Week 1. Aaron Rogers is clearly on a mission to make his coaching staff regret spending a first round pick on a QB. Roger’s #1 weapon to do that with is Adams. Additionally, Adams has tore up the Detroit Lions every time he has stepped on the field against them. He is as close to a 100% lock for me across the board and I think he should be one for you too. Green Means Go for Davante Adams.

Good Luck in your Contests!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: