Hopefully you paid attention to my earlier DFS Article about the Sunday Slate and you paid attention to the Values that were presented? Did you start two touchdown Jimmy Graham over pedestrian Zach Ertz? Sure hope so! Did you start Jerick McKinnon or Devin Singletary? Did you start Hayden Hurst?
Every Fantasy Analyst will have some misses including this one but the hits I just listed are all ones that cashed today because they were low owned and also cheap. I know because I cashed with them. I sincerely hope you did too.
So on to Sunday Night in a big NFC Battle at the Superdome and there is Value to be Found so once again let’s chat some DFS and let’s see if we can find you some value to cash with tonight!
Editors note – all Draft King pricing that is mentioned are the Flex prices on Draft Kings. You need to keep in mind when selecting a player as Captain on Draft Kings the price of the player will be 1.5 the Flex Pricing. Fan Duel factors this in to their pricing overall. Of course the Captain (DK) and MVP (FD) also equals 1.5 their score too so it is a plus to choose wisely for that seat.
New Orleans Saints
The last time we saw the Saints in Primetime, they did not look good. It was evident that they missed Michael Thomas much more that perhaps they let on. Now one week removed from an embarrassing loss and back at home in the Superdome they are in a position to bounce back – but it will not be easy. The Green Bay Packers deploy a stingy defense and Aaron Rogers has been playing lights out. But there are fantasy points to be found tonight and let’s see how we can cash …
It sounds crazy to say, but I am ok if you want to fade Drew Brees tonight. I am. The reality is that over two weeks without Michael Thomas over the last two weeks he just hasn’t looked like, well, Drew Brees. However, your eyes can deceive you when it comes to Fantasy. Last week he threw for 312 and a score plus one interception. 18.5 Fantasy Points – not blow away by any stretch but not basement level either. Brees has seemingly found a connection (finally) with Tre’quon Smith. He has a sturdy handed RB out of the backfield in Alvin Kamara and a big Tight End Target in Jared Cook. If Emmanuel Sanders can find separation that is 4 weapons that all can do damage. But I can understand why you’d want to Fade Drew Brees. I like Drew Brees tonight to deliver a good game. The Saints are at Home where he actually has a higher Fantasy Value than on the road. I also expect that this will be a shootout and if so I think having exposure to Brees will be necessary.
Brees will garner slightly less ownership tonight than Aaron Rogers, however he won’t be my pick for Captain or MVP tonight but if you do put any of his offensive weapons in at Captain or MVP, I believe that you will need to pair them with Brees in a Flex spot with correlation in the lineup back to Rogers or Jones. That may be different enough to cash. I think many will opt for Brees and Rogers in that top spot but by choosing a skill player instead and keeping Brees Brees and/or Rogers in a flex spot, you may be able to create a contrarian lineup. Brees is $9,800 on DK and $13,500 on FD.
I think the most ownership on the Saints side of the ball tonight will fall to Alvin Kamara. And why not. Kamara is as about as close to a set it and forget it play as you can. Yes the Green Bay Defense is better than it once was but Kamara comes into this game healthy and realizing that he must step up as the playmaker with Michael Thomas sidelined. Plus he’s on a roll. Over the first two weeks of the season he has touched the ball 39 times, collecting 241 total yards and 4 touchdowns. I believe he will find some room to run and certainly in the passing game he could be the weapon Brees leans on most as I expect the Packers to put constant pressure on Brees all night. I think Kamara is an excellent pick for a Captain or MVP tonight and could also be a contrarian pick as the expected most popular play there will be on the other side of the ball in Aaron Jones.
You cannot mention the New Orleans running game without also mentioning Latavius Murray who will be active and will spell Kamara several times per game. Thus far this season however his snaps have been less situational and more as a change of pace and while it is possible Murray will receive goal line power running, I do not see the Saints moving too far from their playmaker Kamara without Michael Thomas. If you are mass multi entering, I think you have to have some exposure to Murray but mine will be low. Murray is a great way to finish off a high priced lineup sitting at $2,800 on DK and $7,500 on FD
Tre’quon Smith arrived in Week 2 going 5 for 7 and 82 yards. This was without question his biggest game in three seasons and I would expect Brees to be looking for Smith early and often tonight. I think one of the big reasons Smith found so much success was the attention paid on Emmanuel Sanders as he most likely was deemed the heir apparent for Thomas’ receptions. While I do not think Sanders will put up another goose egg on Prime Time, I do like Smith slightly higher than Sanders. It has more to do with volume that I expect he will see tonight being even closer in line with that of a typical Michael Thomas Game. The team needs Emmanuel Sanders to step up tonight especially in the Red Zone. I think despite the poor showing last week Sanders will be a very popular play tonight at only $5,600 on DK compared to Smith at $8,200. On FD they are much closer with Sanders at $10,000 and Smith at $9,200 on FD.
If I am playing Brees I am likely stacking him with all of his pass catchers so I don’t think it is bad to pair Brees, Smith and Sanders together. On DK you may be contrarian by playing the higher priced Smith. On FanDuel I prefer the savings of Smith. If Sanders goes for another 0.0 and you paid $10k for him, you’d lynch the guy who told you to do it after all.
Jared Cook will firmly be in play tonight as a favorite target for Brees as well as a Red Zone target. Brees missed Cook several times in the game against the Raiders and Cook’s touchdown saved his fantasy day. I expect this game to be a high scoring affair and if so I think I like Drew Brees’ big target down by the goal line. I do not think Cook will garner more ownership than either Smith or Sanders and he has an ok matchup tonight against Green Bay. He clocks in at $7,600 on DK and $11,000 on FD
Value on the Saints side of the ball comes in 3 names. Taysom Hill, Josh Hill and Deonte Harris. Harris had 23 yards in the air and 11 on the ground in week 2. Taysom Hill is a touchdown or bust player and Josh Hill is one of Drew Brees’ most trusted targets in the red zone. All are sub $2,000 and can open up great value. They are dart throws but any of them could hit. That’s playing darts after all.
The Green Bay Packers
Davante Adam’s will be inactive tonight and due to this I think you can find great value on the Green Bay Side of the ball. It likely will be chalky but will also be the only way to fit in nearly every stud you want.
If there is a Must Play, Must Start, Must Captain, Must MVP tonight play – for me it is Aaron Jones. With the news of Adam’s sitting it only makes Jones more of a priority for me. Look at last season the explosion in offense that Jones had – heck look at last week 18 Touches for 162 and 2 plus 4 catches for another 68 and 1. C’mon now. Here is the thing though, not all of Jones’ targets are dump offs – not even close. Jones is running routes and creating mismatches with linebackers in coverage. That is the secret sauce. No Adam’s only makes me believe even more that Aaron Rogers will look to get the ball in Jones’ hands early and often. He is the second highest priced player on the slate at $11,500 on DK and the third highest on FanDuel at $14,000. He is a lock for me as Captain and MVP tonight. However, I could see Jones being very chalky especially with the Adam’s news so I will be pivoting in some entries to Kamara in the lead spot despite the price increase. The reality is though that there is now enough value available where you can fit both guys in your lineups.
Value starts with Marques Valdez Scantling who has (as reported by NFL Network this morning) run the MOST GO routes in the NFL. Athletically MVS is the closest comp to Adam’s and while I don’t see him collecting the full share of targets Adam’s would have received he will get targeted. Last week with Adam’s not fully on the field he saw 7. However tonight with Adam’s out I could see Rogers airing it out to show he is bulletproof and MVS is a likely candidate for those targets. I like him at $6,800 on DK and $9,500 on FD.
Another potential beneficiary of Adam’s absence will be Alan Lazard who famously is an Aaron Roger’s guy. Lazard saw 6 targets in Week 1 for 63 yards with Adam’s on the field and if there is evidence that Aaron Jones is the biggest beneficiary of an Adam’s Absence it is likely seen with Lazard only seeing 4 targets last week. However I do expect more attention tonight for Lazard who is the more sure handed between he and MVS. Lazard is priced nicely at $6,200 on DK and a full $1500 less than MVS on FanDuel at $8,000. I expect MVS to be a very chalky play tonight with Adam’s absence especially stacked with Rogers. A nice pivot or contrarian piece to that stack would be Lazard who will garner signicantly less attention from DFSers.
I do want to highlight two other Packers who could provide significant savings tonight in Running Back Jamaal Williams Tight End Robert Tonyon. Both players are sub $3,000 dollars tonight and as we have seen will be involved in the game plan. Williams had 8 carries for 63 yards in week 2 and is also a very capable pass catcher. Tonyon led the Packers Tight Ends in targets, catches and yards last week seeing 2 targets and turning 25 yards and a touchdown. Both will provide necessary salary relief you will need to stack your lineup with studs.
Lastly Aaron Rogers. I could spend a lot of time here but I will say this, the guy is on fire. He has a severe Chip on his shoulder and I love players with a Chip on their shoulder. Play Aaron Rogers. Pair him with whomever you like best (Aaron Jones for me) and go to work. Week 1 44 attempts 32 completions 364 yards and 4 touchdowns. Week 2 30 attempts 18 completions 240 yards and 2 touchdowns. Week 3 – let’s go.
Good luck in your contests.