Monday Night Football – Week 4 – DFS Strategy & Picks Part 2 – Packers Falcons!

Picking up where I left off in part 1, you have the big time matchup between Aaron Rogers and the undefeated Packers and Matt Ryan and the winless Falcons. In case you haven’t heard – Davante Adams will be OUT tonight, which certainly will make the Packers DFS Targets interesting. On the Falcons side both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are listed as questionable, but expected to play. Ok – let’s go:

QBs

In the two game slate tonight the most popular play will be Patrick Mahomes, so while Aaron Rogers is the second most popular play it isn’t by a huge margin. So finding the right pieces to pair with Rogers will be the most helpful thing for you to be able to cash if you want to play him. And why wouldn’t you want to play 2020 Aaron Rogers? The Falcons Defense has not been able to stop opposing passing games and Rogers is yet to have a game this season where he hasn’t thrown multiple touchdowns. Now there is a fear that with both Adams and Alan Lazard out, Rogers won’t have the targets but I am not worried. Marquez Valdez Scantling has been waiting for an opportunity like this where he can show that he can be a “Roger’s Guy” and before I get into the additional wide receivers that the Packers will field tonight, Aaron Jones is a different level pass catching running back and Rogers also really likes his Tight Ends as well – Robert Tonyon and Jay Sternberger. Rogers is a solid play tonight but again a popular one. I think the most popular stacks will be Rogers with MVS or Rogers with Jones or Rogers with MVS and Jones. But I highly doubt there will be many that go Rogers, MVS, Jones and a Green Bay Tight End and spoiler alert, that will be my direction tonight. Aaron Rogers is my favorite play as a Captain or MVP tonight in Showdowns, at least my favorite Packer in that spot.

Matt Ryan needs a win. He needs a win for himself, for his Coach and his team. I think Matt Ryan will do everything he possibly can to win this game and he will push the ball downfield, from jumpstreet. The nice thing for Matt Ryan is that he is facing a defense that has been very generous against wide receivers and while I do like the Packers for sacks, I think Ryan with his full compliment of weapons at his disposal is primed for a Monster performance – win or lose. I think the sense of urgency that the Falcons will be playing with will be evident and even if they go up big, based on the last two weeks of losses, it may still be enough for them! Ryan is your third most popular QB tonight with just a slight difference in ownership vs Rogers but close to a 20% difference between he and Mahomes. Again though his weapons will be popular tonight so you need to be creative in how you utilize them to be different when stacking. I think while Ryan with Julio or Ridley themselves will be the most Popular ways people go tonight, stacking them both with Ryan may be a fun option for differentiation. However Stacking Ryan with Julio, Ridley and Russell Gage will be a very low owned approach and one I will be attacking. Ryan is certainly in play in Showdown slates as well.

RB

As I mentioned previously Aaron Jones is the most popular player on tonight’s slate at a ridiculous 75% ownership. As I said yesterday with Alvin Kamara, it will be tough to get around Jones if he indeed smashes. So I am not saying fade him, but I am saying that if you are mass multi entering in the two game tournaments or Showdowns – you may want to make sure you have a couple lineups with Jamaal Williams in them. Look, we have seen how good Aaron Jones can be and how much Rogers trusts him as a receiver – the guy runs routes downfield! He can be a touchdown machine and is a fantastic play against the Falcons – but at that level of ownership, should anything happen to him early in the game, hedging your Aaron Jones lineups with a few Jamaal Williams lineups could pay dividends fast.

As I mentioned before too a Aaron Rogers and Aaron Jones stack will be as popular as a Matt Ryan Calvin Ridley stack tonight. So adding another piece or two of the Packers offense to your stack will be a nice way to be a little contrarian – as much as you can with a 75% owned player.

I don’t know why but I feel like this is a Todd Gurley game tonight. The Falcons need a win and so far Gurley, while productive, hasn’t been TODD GURLEY. However in a big time NFC Matchup in prime time with really the season on the line for the Birds – this may be the night that Gurley gets the workload Dan Quinn has been saving him for. I will have some shares of Gurley tonight. He is a popular play at 30% ownership but that is ok. If I am game stacking I am choosing between Gurley or Jones and not playing both – narrative wise that is counter intuitive if you think about it. But as a pivot to Jones in some lineups, Gurley is a fine play and as risky as it sounds – he makes for a very contrarian choice for Captain/M.V.P tonight – risky, but potentially fruitful.

I also think you should have some shares of Brian Hill in this game. Week 3 was a breakout for Brian Hill taking 9 carries for 58 yards and a score and 22 yards through the air. If Gurley can’t get it done for the Falcons, I think you will see a lot of Brian Hill and should that happen, much like the rest of the Atlanta offense, Hill could primed for a big game. Great Contrarian Flex Play and also a solid pivot in Showdown slates to Gurley. I would not play Hill in place of Aaron Jones, CEH in the other game or either White or Burkhead either, but again he is a low owned target to consider tonight.

WR

If Julio is in – you play him. If Ridley is in – you play him. I don’t know if you need a lot of analysis. However I think the optimal play is to stack both Julio and Ridley with Ryan. Could this be THE JULIO GAME? Or will this continue the RED HOT CALVIN RIDLEY’S streak? Why try and play that game – play them both. Both have a fine opportunity to perform and both NEED to step up tonight for the Falcons to have a shot. Additionally – don’t sleep on Russell Gage either. While he hasn’t been able to match his breakout performance in Week 1, he did score a Touchdown in Week 2 and if either Julio or Ridley are limited in any way, you will see a lot of Gage. I love the 4 man stack with Ryan, Ridley, Julio and Gage in the two game slate and don’t forget Gage as a stacking option either in the Showdown Slate. If I am using any of these guys to run back a Green Bay Packers with, I think it is Julio. He is slightly less expensive than Ridley and he also is carrying a little less ownership too.

I wanted to save talking about the Green Bay Packers wide recievers because in the wake of the Davante Adams news, Marquez Valdez-Scantling is you highest owned wide receiver on tonight’s slate. Understandably, most football experts are saying MVS is the closest comp to Adam’s without Alan Lazard on the Field. I think he is an important piece to your lineup because against the Falcons Defense, MVS could really shine tonight and take a big step for himself into the Aaron Rogers Circle of Trust. If you are looking for some low owned targets though on the depleted Packers side you only have two to choose from on Draft Kings. Darrius Shepard and Malik Taylor. Taylor looks to have the edge here as he saw targets in Week 3, but when going three wide Shepard will be there too after being promoted by the practice squads. These two guys are dart throws tonight but if you are multi-entering, you should have some shares – also if you are multi entering in showdowns, stacking Taylor and Shepard with Rogers and fading MVS would be the ultimate contrarian play.

Tight End

Hayden Hurst will be on the field – but with all three of Matt Ryan’s receivers available, I think he becomes a dart throw tonight. I am not trying to down play Hurst who is a very capable pass catcher, but with Julio, Ridley, Gage and Gurley all playing – in a must win, I am concerned with Hursts target share. Why I will have some shares however is that he is a Red Zone threat and even if he only has 15 yards but somehow he catches 2 touchdowns, you could be in the money.

The Tight Ends I really like are Robert Tonyon and Jay Sternberger. All I had to hear in Aaron Roger’s post game interview last Sunday nIght was how happy he was both these guys caught some passes. I think both will be involved tonight with both Adams and Lazard sitting. I actually like Tonyon the best and I like him more than both Malik Taylor and Darrius Shepard. Don’t sleep on Green Bay Tight Ends.

I like the Packers Defense for Sacks tonight in Showdowns and I don’t really like the Falcons Defense at all – But this is 2020 and anything can happen. If you are playing showdowns I would have a few lineups featuring either defense. Kickers in this game will be important. Mason Crosby I like better as the veteran and the Packers will take every opportunity to put points on the board. However the Falcons have recent practice squad call up Elliot Fry who will be in his first NFL Game since 2017? Stranger things have happened, but I will be underweight on Mr Fry across the board.

Good Luck in your Contests!

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