Going into Week 5 for NFL DFS we had a great slate of games planned – now we have 2 Games Fully Removed from the Main Slate on both Draft Kings and Fan Duel, including the Patriots & Broncos that has been fully moved to next week. What this means for the main DFS Slate is that ownership on certain games will become all the more concentrated. You will have a lot of players literally playing the same lineups and thinking that if they take ‘different’ pieces of the games, they will be have a unique lineup – you won’t! Let me explain a little further and also explain how I am handling today’s DFS Article.
The Majority of ownership today is going to 2 Games. The Cowboys vs The Giants and The Carolina Panthers vs the Falcons. Why? Easy. You have 4 bad defenses each facing extremely talented Offenses. Second, you have at least 3 quarterbacks in Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan and Teddy Bridgewater who have the potential to put up 400+ yards and multiple touchdowns and you have a 4th Quarterback in Daniel Jones that I think many DFS Players will think “no one will play Daniel Jones” – again, you’d be wrong. The Major Skill Position Players on all 4 of these teams are the highest owned players on the slate. Dak, Daniel, Teddy – #1, 2, 4th Highest owned QBs. Mike Davis, Zeke Elliot #1, 2 Highest Owned Running Backs. Darius Slayton, Robbie Anderson, Amari Cooper, Calvin Ridley – your top 4 owned wide receivers. Even Evan Engram is the 7th highest owned player on the entire slate. Look – if you are playing 1 lineup or only single entry, you will need to have pieces of these games – so what I want to do is give you a few lower owned plays to surround your pieces of this game.
If you are playing multiple lineups, you should have a stack lineup for each of these teams – it only makes sense to. But I don’t think just stacking the QB with his #1 Target and running it back with a receiver on the other side will cut it. Everyone will do that. So when you are building a stack for these teams, I think you need to get multiple pieces which I think will be a contrarian move. For instance Teddy Bridgewater – don’t just stack Bridgewater with Robbie Anderson, it will be too popular. Include Mike Davis in the stack, or include both Anderson and DJ Moore in the stack – or if you can do it, include all 4. Or if you want to be really contrarian – include TE Ian Thomas in the stack with Bridgewater and a receiver. Being different is one thing, but being different with a lineup that correlates it’s parts is another. Same Idea for Dak Prescott – while I wouldn’t include Zeke in a full stack, I would look at including 2 or 3 pass catchers with Dak – Cooper, Lamb and Schultz. Then you can run that back with Darius Slayton or go two Tight End and stick Engram in your flex. The point is, with so much ownership being concentrated to these 4 games I think if you are stacking, you need to get more than just 1 receiver stacked with your QB. By including more of that QBs pass catchers in one lineup, it will be much more unique and your lineup with correlate much better. If you have any further questions on this please feel free to tweet me @DelRayBoston
Now here is the cool thing – with so much ownership going to these 4 games, there are some other great plays that are going surprisingly overlooked and simply by playing a lineup focused on another game instead of the four I mentioned, you have created a contrarian play and if either of those two big games busts, you can pole vault yourself over a huge amount of the field. There is a consensus feeling in the industry in 2020 that you just can’t get a cashing lineup if you don’t have a QB that offers yardage on the ground as well as in the air. But if you think about that, there are really only a handful of QBs that can do that – which if we all only focused on these players (Russ, Josh Allen, Lamar, Dak, Kyler for instance) than we’d never have any variance and we’d all be splitting tiny cash wins. No I don’t think it’s a must that you have to roster one of these guys – by the way Russ and Josh Allen aren’t even on the slate. Does this make sense. So today’s DFS article will focus on surprisingly low owned options with a lot of upside and I will include some strategy as I go to.
I am not going to focus on pricing today. I am going to focus on ownership that you can take advantage of and strategy on how to deploy the picks I mention. I think on a slate like today, this approach will prove more fruitful for you.
Lamar Jackson – 7% Ownership going against the Cincinnati Bengals
Try a stack with Jackson, Hollywood Brown and Mark Andrews and run the stack back with Tee Higgins or Tyler Boyd. You can include pieces of the Cowboys, Giants, Falcons and Panthers around these players and while you will have some chalk, your main game stack of Baltimore will give you a contrarian edge against the competition – and if you don’t think Lamar Jackson can ‘get you there’ on any given week, you should stop playing DFS now.
Kyler Murray – 4% Ownership going agains the NY Jets
Start your lineup with a stack of Murray and Deandre Hopkins – or go really really contrarian and include Kenyan Drake and the Cardinals Defense. Murray and Hopkins are pricey you should be able to fit players of the Cowboys, Giants, Panthers and Falcons into the lineup and you can stack multiple games. Again you will have Chalk but if Murray and Hopkins go off – you will be sitting in the drivers seat.
Jimmy Garoppolo – 3.2% Ownership going against the Miami Dolphins
Jimmy G is BACK! Here is the thing – the Dolphins are making a game out of every contest that they play and the 49ers still have several key members of their defense missing. Jimmy G will throw and while George Kittle remains a highly popular play at TE, stack him with Jimmy and you suddenly have a pivot to Daniel Jones (in the same price range as Garoppolo) with a ton of upside – oh and Raheem Mostert is playing today – remember his 80 yard dump off pass from Jimmy in week 1 and oh yeah Deebo Samuel will play today to and he is currently at 2% ownership? Start your team with a 49ers stack and you have a lot of upside for your contrarian play.
A couple more quick hits:
Gardner Minshew – 4.4% ownership. Deshaun Watson is the 3rd highest owned QB on the slate. Pivot to Minshew who has DJ Chark back and including RB James Robinson in the stack and run it back with Will Fuller. Fill the rest of the lineup up with your Cowboys, Giants, Falcons and Panthers and you could be sitting very pretty
Jared Goff – 1.9% Ownership. Yes the Rams are playing the Washington FT – but the Washington FT’s defensive strength is their line. While it’s possible Darrell Henderson or Malcom Brown or Cam Akers could break off a run, but dollars to donuts Goff will be throwing. Stack him with Kupp, Woods and/or Higbee and run the stack back with Washington’s Antonio Gibson or Scary Terry McLauren. Fill the rest of the lineup up with your Cowboys, Giants, Falcons and Panthers and you could be sitting very pretty
Ben Roethlisberger – 2.1% Ownership. The Steelers are pissed off. They got a week off they didn’t ask for and now Ben gets to play the disaster walking known as the Eagles Secondary. Stack him with both Diontae Johnson and JuJu and/or James Connor and this stack will be as contrarian as contrarian can be. Fill the rest of the lineup up with your Cowboys, Giants, Falcons and Panthers and you get the point.
Raheem Mostert – 4.3% Ownership. Feel like your lineup is full of Chalk, find a way to get Mostert in your lineup. This is a stellar Running Back in a great matchup and no one is looking at him. Stack him with the 49ers defense, also largely being ignored.
Joe Mixon – 1.9% Ownership. Coming off of a 3 touchdown game he should be a popular play but it’s the matchup against the Ravens that is surpassing his ownership. If you are multi entering and using a lot of chalk, stick Mixon in your flex. Look anything can happen in 2020 – we have seen it before and let’s say Joe Burrow gets his team in position to score in the red zone 2, 3 or 4 times and Mixon gets the nod. Touchdown dependent – sure, but you can do worse than taking a dart throw on a talented player like Mixon
Le’Veon Bell – 5.1% Ownership. Look I know Bell has not looked good, but with Joe Flacco under center today I would guess Bell will be busy with dump off passes and by the way it’s not like the Cardinals are lights out against running backs either. Again, you are talking about a guy with 25+ touch potential at 5% ownership, that contrarian piece can be a difference maker for your chalky stacks.
Tee Higgins – 2.9% Ownership. Higgins has emerged as Joe Burrows #2 option behind Tyler Boyd and has a lot of upside in a game we know the Bengal’s will be throwing in. Let AJ Green get all the attention from the Ravens and give Higgins 75 Yards and a TD at less than 3% Ownership – c’mon now. Incidentally Tyler Boyd is also at 2.3% Ownership today too. Mini Game Stack of Higgins, Boyd and Mark Andrews in the middle of lineup? I like it.
Laviska Shenault – 2.5% Ownership. If we are expecting a lot of points in the Jacksonville Houston game, why would we want to fade any piece of the game – especially one that is only behind DJ Chark in targets and opportunities. If you need a final piece to a chalky Cowboys stack, Shenault at less than 3% ownership is someone to consider for the upside. Stack Shenault and Will Fuller in your lineup or Shenault, Chark and Fuller? I like it.
Deebo Samuel – 1% Ownership. Samuel will play today and the Niners as I mentioned are playing the Dolphins. If the Niners ‘Eased’ Samuel back last week, I’d expect the reigns to be off and you are talking about a player with 100 yard 2 touchdown upside at only 1% Ownership. Need I say more?
Cede Lamb – 6% ownership. Yes he is a Dallas Cowboy and I promised options outside of the Cowboys game – but I can’t ignore this clear oversight within this game. Lamb has been nothing short of Spectacular for the Cowboys and if we are assuming Dak will be throwing, use Lamb in your stack with him. The Giants are getting SHREDDED in the slot and while Dak has massive ownership, Lamb the contrarian play to Amari Cooper could win you some CASH TODAY.
Tyler Higbee – 1.2% Ownership. The Higbeast going against the Washington FT? Again if we consider that Goff will be throwing today due to a solid run defense in Washington, why not take a shot on Higbee in your lineup. Play whoever else you want – if Higbee nabs a touchdown or two at less than 2% ownership? Imagine if the #3 Tight End this week ends up being Higbee and not Engram and you started Higbee. I’ll have a few shares
Darren Waller – 9.5% Ownership. Yes this is a little bit high but due to Engram and Schultz both being higher owned AND cheaper, I think Waller is being largely forgotten about. You are talking the #1 Las Vegas offensive weapon going against the Chiefs where we all know Derek Carr will be throwing. You want to look like the smartest DFS player in the room? Play Waller today.
Mo Allie Cox – .1% Ownership. You read that right? The Colts 6 foot 9 inch tight end going against a Browns team that we have always targeted Tight Ends against. He is cheap, literally NO ONE is playing him and could you imagine another 80 yard 2 touchdown performance coming out of the big man today. I could. I don’t often recommend a double stack of Tight Ends in a lineup, but Mo Alley Cox is a very interesting option for that today stacked with another top tight end option. Dart throw? Sure – but .1% Ownership for one of Phillip Rivers’ favorite targets – stop it.
Rams – 5% Ownership going against the now Kyle Allen Led Washington FT.
Cardinals – 4% Ownership going against the now Joe Flacco Led NY Jets
49ers – 2% Ownership going against the always Volatile Ryan Fitzpatrick Led Miami Dolphins
And you want the ultimate dart throw, contrarian, take a stand play?
The Carolina Panthers have been a sneaky play over the last 3 weeks and as Great as the Falcons Offense can be, mistakes can be made. You want to really be risky with potentially a big reward waiting for you? Play the CHEAP and 2% Owned Panthers D and bust everyone stacking Ryan and Ridley. Well maybe not them but I think you can pick up what I’m putting down.
GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS!