I think as this week goes on we should all take a sigh of relief for the games where there hasn’t been a positive Covid report, but keep in mind that as each week goes we could have more. So while we still can, let’s try and make some hay on a Sunday Night Showdown slate shall we?
Tonight we have a battle of two NFC Teams with fantastic offensive talent and less than fantastic defenses. That is a recipe for a lot of fantasy points and a lot of fun – should both teams perform. On the one side we have the seemingly ever consistent Russell Wilson and on the other we have the seemingly ever inconsistent Kirk Cousins. Still though, this game is shaping up to be a shootout and so plenty to discuss. Let’s get into it.
Perhaps more so than any other showdown we have seen so far, ownership is extremely condensed tonight as both teams have very defined stud Wide Receivers and Running Backs. So being different will be tough. However I’d like to help you find some ways to do so.
Editors note: DK Pricing will reflect the flex pricing of a player. If you select that player as a Captain on DK be aware his salary goes up 1.5x but you collect 1.5x the players points. Fan Duel factors their MVP spot into all pricing. MVP also earns 1.5x the points.
Kirk Cousins ($9,600 DK, $14,500 FD) will have to have his throwing shoes on tonight. Yes, the Vikings are run first and perhaps they will be even more so tonight trying to control the clock and keep Russell Wilson off the field. However with how fast and explosive the Seahawks offense can be, I think the Vikings will need to try to do the same to maintain pace. This isn’t too say the Vikings can’t win – they certainly can – it’s just a matter of how well their defense can hold up and so far that hasn’t been too well. The nice thing is that with the emergence of Rookie Justin Jefferson, Cousins now has a true #2 threat a la Stefon Diggs. This can only help to open the offense up and stretch the field allowing more room for Cousins to throw. With Thielen, Jefferson, Dalvin Cook as primary targets, the Vikings can certainly be dangerous. Cousins is averaging 265 Yards per game with around an 8.5 yards per completion. He is only averaging around 4 deep targets per game, but against a very soft Seattle Defense, he has a chance to increase all of these marks tonight. He also comes in at nearly 40% less ownership to Wilson. If you are multi-entering, you need to have some shares of Cousins tonight. If you are a single entry player or a low entry player, it will be tough to get to Cousins over Wilson, but I think you will need some of the Vikings pass catchers in your lineup to cash. Cousins also is a risky but contrarian choice for Captain tonight.
Russell Wilson ($13,000 DK, $16,500 FD) has been cooking. No doubt about it. Wilson is averaging 289 Yards per game and he comes in tonight with 16 Passing Touchdowns. He is without question the highest owned player tonight at over 70% and rightfully so. The Vikings defense has not been very good thus far, to say the least. So what is preventing Russ from once again cooking? Not much. The only two things that I think you have to worry about are a). how heavily will Pete Carrol favor the run game with Chris Carson against the porous run defense of the Vikings and b). how well will the Seahawks be able to contain the run game of the Vikings with Dalvin Cook. My point here is, will Russ have the same opportunities to cook as he has had recently.? Most likely the answer is yes and so of course – play Russell Wilson. Stacking him with Metcalf or Lockett will be extremely popular, so I may recommend an onslaught style stack of Wilson, Metcalf, Lockett, Carson and kicker Jason Meyers which should leave enough to run back the stack with a solid play on the Vikings. Wilson is my #1 choice for Captain/MVP as well.
Dalvin Cook ($10,200 DK, $15,000 FD) will need to have a game tonight as I believe he will be the key to a Seahawks victory. Two reasons – for the woes of the Seattle Secondary, the Seahawks have been pretty good against the run thus far, giving up an average of around 80 yards on the ground per game. However they haven’t had to deal with a back like Cook, so his success tonight will be very important to the Vikings success. The other reason that the Vikings need to establish Cook early is to control the clock and keep Wilson off the field. Cook right now is the 2nd highest owned player on the slate tonight. Cook is coming off of a 130 yard two touchdown performance last week against Houston and that is the kind of game that the Vikings need from him tonight. In that game he also had 16 yards receiving. Interestingly, the Vikings are also giving #2 back Alexander Mattison ($2,800 DK, $8,000 FD) some run as well mainly as a change of pace. So while Cook is the clear #1, if multi-entering I don’t mind taking a few shots on Mattison too. However with prices as they are it will be tough to Wilson in the Captain slot and Cook, so you will need some creative plays to round your lineup. I don’t mind Cook as a Captain selection either, I just get concerned if the Vikings get more than a score down, his usage may become limited. Either way, have plenty of shares of Dalvin Cook tonight and if Single Entry playing, he is nearly a lock in my opinion.
Chris Carson ($7,800 DK, $13,500 FD) has the opportunity to absolutely smash tonight against a Vikings defense giving up 134 yards on the ground to opposing running backs. Carson himself is having a solid year, coming off of a two touchdown game against Miami. What I am really liking is Carson’s involvement in the passing game averaging 4.5 targets per game thus far. This limits his need to be dispelled by Carlos Hyde ($2,200 DK, $7,500 FD), who is being used as a change of pace and much like Mattison, not a bad idea to throw in a couple lineups if multi entering. However Carson should be a priority. I could very easily see the Seahawks going up multiple scores tonight where you may see even more of Carson than normal. He should smash tonight and I expect him to or at least, I am hoping he does! I like Carson a lot and would be my #2 choice for a Captain/MVP spot tonight behind Wilson. Carson will be the 3rd highest owned player tonight on the slate – just an FYI.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
I don’t think I need to point out what great plays DK Metcalf ($10,000 DK, $11,000 FD) or Tyler Lockett ($8,600 DK, $12,000) are on the Seahawks side or both Adam Thielen ($9,800 DK, $12,500 FD) and Justin Jefferson ($8,000 DK, $10,000 FD) are on the Vikings Side. These are 4 stud receivers who both should be stacked with their respective Quarterbacks in lineups and any of the 4 will make fine run backs on stacks heavily favoring the other side. My favorites in order would be Metcalf, Thielen, Lockett, Jefferson but any of them could be the slate breaker tonight. So play them – mix and match them. All of them will be chalk tonight so it will be who else you pair them with that will help you stand out. So let’s talk about who I think you can take contrarian shots on. Just so you know Tyler Lockett will be the Most Popular of the four on DK while Adam Thielen will take that spot on Fan Duel. Justin Jefferson will carry the least ownership of the four on both sites, for what it’s worth.
David Moore ($6,200 DK, $9,000 FD) has been a standout this season for Russell Wilson coming into the game with 2 touchdowns so far and coming off a 95 yard game in Week 4. Moore is coming in tonight around 11% owned and is a great contrarian pick to play.
I have combined the WR/Tight End here so I can also talk about the Viking’s Kyle Rudolph and the Seahawks Greg Olsen. Rudolph is a known favorite target for Cousins particularly on third down and in the red zone. Rudolph also comes in to the game with roughly 10% ownership. Greg Olsen ($5,000 DK, $7,000 FD) has become a Big Target for Russell Wilson as well and even though he isn’t nearly as involved as Wilson’s Wide Receivers, he also represents a big target for 3rd down and in the Red Zone and while he is garnering around 25% ownership, it could be enough of a difference considering how concentrated ownership will be on the top level plays. Lastly, big Will Dissly ($600 DK, $6,500 FD) is priced right as well to take a dart throw on. Before Olsen got to town, Dissly was the guy and in 12 personnel sets he will be out there. You never know when Russ is cooking.
Both kickers are in play tonight and I would actually consider using them in stacks with the other offensive pieces. Both teams will be looking to score early and often and Kickers could be busy tonight. Jason Meyers ($4,200 DK, $8,500 FD) and Dan Bailey ($4,000 DK and $9,000 FD).
While both defenses haven’t been great, you never know in 2020. Sacks, Fumbles, Interceptions – if you are multi-entering I would have a lineup with each defense at least once. You never know.
Good Luck in your Contests!