I am so excited about today’s slate on Draft Kings it’s not even funny. This is a Draft Kings centric article today with a heavy focus on Wide Receivers – and again, I am SO EXCITED. The slate today does not contain many of the studs we have had to figure out what to do with (example Kyler, Nuk Hopkins, and Cowboy, Mahomes and company and Josh Allen). What that has created is a slate with a more concentrated amount of games in the 1PM slot, with most of them chock full of fantasy gold. The two games in the 4pm slot also have plenty to talk about. So let me highlight some of my favorite plays today and strategies I am using to attack and to (fingers crossed) WIN!
We need to start with Wide Receiver 1s on the slate. More and more we are seeing very high scoring games and a big part of that is we have notable Quarterbacks who are throwing deep at a much higher than normal clip. It has put the wide receiver in the drivers seat in Fantasy Football and especially in DFS. Just look at last week for example. Chase Claypool – not the #1 Wide Receiver on the Team but the #1 Wide Receiver on the week with 4 Touchdowns. Travis Fulgham (who?) comes out of nowhere with 13 targets 152 Yards and a score. Wide Receiver 2 on the week. In the case of Fulgham, due to injury, he was (and likely will be today) acting as the Wide Receiver 1 on his team. Claypool is not and while he should have a good game today again, don’t sleep on Ju Ju too … because a lot of your competition in DFS tournaments today will be. That is my point. Let’s look at Wide Receiver 1s today that I think you need to have a mix of.
Starting with AJ Brown ($5,600 DK) who is woefully underpriced after a monster performance on Tuesday Night. Take advantage of the pricing! Yes he will be popular but since DK needed to put prices for this week out last Sunday and Brown didn’t play until Tuesday, it allows you a guy that absolutely torched the Texans last season to become a VALUE. The only thing that could slow Brown down today is if the Titans elect to run Derek Henry 40 times. For an expected 30% target share against the Texans today – Brown is a SMASH. Pair him with Tannehill or run a Texans stack back with him. Again he will be a popular play but c’mon – $5,600??
From the value play to the top of the heap – Davante Adams ($8,000) going against the Buccaneers in a game that has the highest expected point of the week. Adams is back and healthy and ready to attack – in case you missed it, Adams had a venomous tweet that he redacted that he all but said how tired he was of seeing other guys get the glory. Look out Buccaneers. Adams is an excellent play in tournaments today. Because of his high price his projected ownership is coming in under 15% and he should be a target monster today. In a game that likely will be a shootout, how can you not have a piece of this guy in your lineups? Amazingly Aaron Rogers ($7,500) is also practically unowned at 6%. Just think – with potentially the two highest scoring players in their position in your lineup, you can still be contrarian… go ahead and load up on you Claypool, Mattisons and Henrys around them and eat the chalk while your two Green Bay Studs ball out and win you some cash. I’m not kidding!
The other side of that game is incredible too. Both Mike Evans ($6,900) and Chris Godwin ($6,400) are Underpriced and woefully Underowned today on Draft Kings and you need to pay attention. You are talking about a game that has over a 50 expected point total and the #1a and #1b Tom Brady receivers are literally under 5% owned in tournaments. There is such a heavy concentration of ownership on AJ Brown, Chase Claypool and Adam Thielen – Evans and Godwin being largely ignored and I think that is a mistake. Both of these guys have slate breaking potential, both guys are healthy and they are playing against Aaron Rogers and the Undefeated Packers. If you don’t think Tom Brady will be throwing you are literally a crazy person. Brady ($6,500) is woefully underowned for the opportunity. Imagine this – you stack Brady, Evans, Godwin and Adams in a lineup – yes, your other positions will need to be bargains to make it work – but combined you end up with 7 touchdowns between your studs and less than 10% of your competition in a tournament had any of them… GREEN MEANS GO.
What if I were to tell you that Calvin Ridley ($7,800) and Julio Jones ($6,700) were playing one of the worst secondaries in the entire NFL in a game where their Team’s season is on the line and both are on less than 10% of your competitions Draft Kings Lineups. Would you play them? Do I need to ask twice? The game most smart players are attacking today is the Falcons and the Vikings. Two bottom basement defenses going up against two high powered offenses with incredible concentrated target shares. It is like a DFS Dream. However because there is SO much attention being paid to the Vikings, no one is looking at Calvin Ridley 3 touchdown upside or Julio Jones 200 Yard Receiving upside on the other side of the ball. Don’t make the same mistake.
Before I continue – I am not saying any of the more highly owned players I am referencing are bad plays. They are highly owned for a reason. I am just so excited to play some of these Stud Wide Receivers that no one else is playing – and I need to tell you about it because I’m advising you to get excited and play them too!
A few more to point out today – Wil Fuller, Allen Robinson, Robby Anderson and Odell Beckham Jr. There is so little attention being paid to these guys this week on Draft Kings from tournament players I almost feel like I have to remind you of them. It’s insane! The Texans and the Titans are another game with a lot of pieces to attack from DFS but holy cow is Wil Fuller ($6,800) being ignored and for what reason? His quarterback Deshawn Watson is the one highest owned on the slate. While the stack of Lamar and Fuller could be popular, I think most people will look at last week’s Brandin Cooks breakout and fade Fuller in place of Cooks. Mistake. The Titans are without top corner Adori Jackson today and there is no one on the Titan’s side that can keep up with Fuller. We have been waiting for the Wil Fuller breakout – today may be the day and at 11% ownership you could be a lucky winner with Fuller in your lineup. I think Cooks and even Randall Cobb are fine plays today too – don’t mistake me. But at 11% ownership I’ll take a gamble on a Wil Fuller 2 touchdown day in a game where we know Watson will be throwing.
Speaking of targets – is there anyone more targeted than Allen Robinson ($7,000) on any team? Yes he is playing the Panthers and their defensive strength is getting after the quarterback, but whoever is under center be it Nick Foles or Frisky Mitch the bottom line is this – they are looking for Allen Robinson and if they can get the ball to him he will EAT the Panthers alive. Robinson’s ownership matches his cost – 7. 7% of tournament players are playing Allen Robinson. I will not fade this guy – the volume is just too much to ignore. His lowest target volume came in Weeks 1 and 2 where he saw 9 targets. 9! The Last 3 Weeks 13 Targets, 10 Targets, 16 Targets. Don’t ignore Allen Robinson today. His price also makes him a sneaky pivot from the UBER popular Adam Thielen at only $300 more.
On the other side of that game is Robbie Anderson ($6,300) who has become the #1 in Carolina this season. Yes the Bears are a tough matchup but the volume and production shouldn’t be ignored. Anderson has only had one game this season with under 8 targets. At under 10% ownership, I don’t know how you can ignore him here. Would anyone be surprised if the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears end up on the highlight reel for being a shootout? I wouldn’t. Yes the Bears have a solid defense and yes the Panthers Defense has been surprising – but with ownership of this game seemingly solely going to the running backs (David Montgomery and Mike Davis – your 2nd & 3rd highest owned running backs on the slate) the pass catchers are being ignored and that is CRAZY to me.
Yes it is tough to trust Odell Beckham Jr on any week so this is a volatile play. Also there is a chance Baker Mayfield doesn’t play due to injury. Perhaps is these two factors that have have Odell’s ownership on DK coming it at 2%. Yes, you read that right – 2%. The Steelers greatest Defensive strength is their line – no question. But Cleveland’s Offensive Line has surprised us so far and the Steeler’s Secondary isn’t anything to get too excited about. I think no one is looking at OBJ and they could be sleeping on a monster performance. It’s risky but at 2% ownership if he goes off and you have him, wow the potential. Jarvis Landry will play today so targets can get muddied but with so much attention being paid to the Steelers, specifically, Chase Claypool – no one is looking at the other side of this game. I will be.
Speaking of the Steelers – Chase Claypool is your second highest owned Wide Receiver behind only AJ Brown. Both of these guys are underpriced. We have already talked about Brown but Claypool for having a 4 Touchdown game is only $5,200. No Diontae Johnson today by the way. A Steelers Stack of Big Ben, Claypool, JuJu and Eric Ebron? Me Likey. JuJu is priced like a WR1 at $6,600 but his ownership is severely suppressed vs Claypools. Most industry experts agree JuJu has the most advantageous WR/CB matchup of the day. Could it be a JuJu day today? I’ll have my shares. And don’t sleep on Eric Ebron either at $4,100. The Browns are torched by TEs regularly and we all know Ebron is a red zone machine when deployed correctly.
Running Back today has a lot of great plays at the top and then seemingly falls off a cliff. I think if you look at the slate it is pretty obvious the GREAT plays and then the Not So Great ones. Here is how it is shaping up in my view:
Highest OWNED Running Backs:
#1 Alexander Mattison ($7,200) – should absolutely SMASH today against Atlanta. Dalvin Cook is out and he has Mike Boone and Ameer Abdullah backing him up. Get him in your lineups where you can. Nuff ‘Ced.
#2 Mike Davis ($7,000) – has a tougher matchup against the Bears, but with Christian McCaffery volume he makes for a great play in any matchup and it’s a REVENGE game for him too! Solid Play.
#3 David Montgomery ($5,800) – severely underpriced for his opportunity today. The Panthers run defense is trash and with Tarik Cohen out, the Bears Backfield is finally Montgomery’s. Should be a smash play today, no doubt.
#4 Derek Henry ($7,300) – Last season Derek Henry put up 200+ yards and 2 scores against this same Houston Texans Lineup. Like I said, the only thing that can slow AJ Brown down is if the Titans decide to run Henry down the Texans throats. Henry could absolutely should destroy the Texans today, have some shares.
#5 Myles Gaskin ($5,400) – The Dolphins are playing the Jets today and Myles Gaskin is the lead dog in the backfield. It makes a nice stack with the Dolphins Defense (#1 Owned Defense this week at $2,900) and saves you a ton of salary to play with. I’ve seen worse ideas come through.
Other RBS that you need to have in your player pool today:
Jonathan Taylor ($6,400) – gets the Bengals today and I have a feeling the Colts are just going to want to run him through their line time and time again in a game that they should win. Also makes a nice stack with the Colts D. Woefully underpriced for the opportunity.
James Robinson ($6,800) – is there another Running Back that plays for the Jaguars? Robinson gets the Detroit Lions today whose run defense is only second in the “worst” column to their pass defense and he will see 90% of the Running Back touches. Too good a matchup and opportunity to ignore.
Antonio Gibson ($5,500) – woefully underpriced for the opportunity. Gibson saw 70% of the running back work and there is an age old saying – you have Quarterback Issues, lean on the run game. He gets the Giants today that have been shredded on the ground by players with less talent than Gibson. Don’t forget him.
Todd Gurley ($6,300) – Gurley is coming off a 100 yard performance and 2 scores and is in a great position to match that today against the porous Vikings defense. Gurley isn’t washed and which side do you want to be on, the one where you have Gurley and he goes for another 2 scores or the side that you don’t. Good Answer.
Ronald Jones ($6,000) – We won’t know what is going on with Leonard Fournette until game time and Keeyshawn Vaughn rifles 3rd down touches but here is the deal. RJ is the #1 on that depth chart and the Packers are not good against the run. Don’t over think this and don’t sleep on a potential 100 yard TD game from Jones either. Great run back on a Packers stack BTW.
Tough Matchup – High Upside Plays.
Aaron Jones ($7,600) against the very well known tough run D of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Don’t let matchups dictate what you do when you have a talented player like this.
Myles Sanders ($6,600) against the scary Baltimore Ravens defense. Yes they are scary but the Browns ran all over them and no one is cutting into Sanders’ workload in Philly – who needs playmakers. Don’t let matchups dictate what you do when you have a talented player like this.
Joe Mixon ($6,200) against the #1 Ranked Colts Defense. Guess what – the Colts Defensive line has got some major injuries and is at a weakened state. Does that make Mixon a smash? No. But is Mixon in my player pool because you know, he is Joe Mixon? YES!
Lamichael Perine ($4,000) – The Jets will actually play football today and in the wake of Lev Bell leaving, Coach Adam Gase stated that Perine will see more opportunities as they can’t continue to lean on 37 year old Frank Gore. His words not mine. He is cheap and worth a dart throw.
Deandre Swift ($4,500) – I do have a feeling we will see a lot of Adrian Peterson today against the Jags but Swift looked great in his last time out and saw opportunities on the ground and in the air. If the Lions happen to get down in this game, I could see Swift taking a big step forward. He is cheap and worth a dart throw.
Top Games to Target For Stacking:
Tampa Bay vs Green Bay: QB+WR, QB+WR+WR, QB+RB+WR all viable.
Atlanta vs Minnesota: QB+WR, QB+WR+WR, QB+WR+TE, QB+RB+WR, WR+RB all viable.
Tennessee vs Houston: QB+WR, QB+WR+WR, QB+WR+TE, WR+RB all viable
Detroit vs Jacksonville: QB+WR, QB+WR+WR, QB+WR+TE, WR+RB all viable.
The Dolphins vs the Jets: Just have a lineup with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Myles Gaskin, Davante Parker, Mike Gesiki and the Dolphins defense and call it a day.
Last things I will mention are three Pivots you can look to if you want to avoid the CHALK wide receivers I have mentioned:
Laviska Shenault ($5,200) – pivot off Chase Claypool at the same price. DJ Chark is banged up and the Detroit Lions can’t stop anyone. Shenault should see heavy usage today at ⅓ ownership of Claypool.
Marvin Jones Jr ($5,100) – pivot off AJ Brown at $500 less. Marvin Jones has yet to impress this season but a matchup with the Jaguars is just too juicy to ignore. Yes Kenny Golladay is a great play but at a ¼ of the ownership of Brown, I think Jones is a fine play too.
Marquise Brown ($6,500) – pivot off Adam Thielen at $800 less. The whole of the Ravens offense is largely being unowned today which is a mistake. The Eagles are a bad team riddled with injuries but they have yet to be blown out and this game has every chance to be a shootout just like last week when the Eagles faced the Steelers. I’d have some shares and Hollywood makes a nice pivot from the Uber chalky Thielen at 1/3rd the ownership. We have seen Brown have 3 TD games in the past ya know…
Good Luck in your Contests.