So if you haven’t already had enough excitement from Week 7 (which is hard to believe the way that some of the games have finished) on tap is Sunday Night Football and the highest projected point total of the week. Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson doing battle. It should be a high scoring affair and one that could have great DFS Implications to take advantage of.
Now if you read my Week 7 DFS Strategy article, I did hit on this game already considering it was being listed as a part of the main and late day slates on both Draft Kings and FanDuel. Showdowns are a different beast however. As a rule you want to use the Captain/MVP spot which gives you 1.5x a player’s point total to give you the most possible points at the best possible dollar value. You also need to be somewhat selective in who you roster in the other flex spots as when you are only playing 1 game, offensive production can often be funneled to only a select amount of players and you have to assume your competitors in the contests you choose know who those players are just as well as you do. So your goal is to create the most optimal lineup that you can with a roster that contains high upside picks as well as near guaranteed picks. Sometimes those picks are one in the same and sometimes they are not. That really becomes the game here for DFS.
Fortunately you have two teams tonight that are high powered offenses who not only have multiple weapons being deployed but also quarterbacks who themselves could be your ‘slate breaker’. Why this is an advantage is that you have more options to choose from regarding roster construction and more than a single likely scenario to base you lineup construction around.
For instance if you look at the Arizona Cardinals last game you will see a big stat line for Kyler Murray, a big stat line for Kenyan Drake the running back and a secondary receiver Christian Kirk outscoring the #1 receiver Deandre Hopkins. However if you look back at the previous games as well you will see that the results of last week are unique. Now if you happened to have chosen correctly with the right combination last week you may have won yourself some money, but the smart player understands that repeating the same path this week may not repeat it’s success this week against a different opponent. For instance, in that game it was noted several times on commentary that both Christian Kirk and Andy Isabella were running virtually the same routes simultaneously. So could Murray have targeted Isabella on an 80 yard bomb the way he targeted Kirk? Yes, sure. Should we assume that he won’t call Isabella’s number if that same scenario appears before him tonight – no not necessarily, but we also can’t out right ignore either player this week if these routes could be successful. Does that make sense?
Ok enough of the theory. Let’s talk the game. I already went into the individual game pieces in my earlier article, so this article will focus on my strategies for DK and FD specifically.
Starting with Draft Kings you 5 Most Owned Players should come as no shock to you. #1 Russell Wilson, #2 Tyler Lockett, #3 DK Metcalf, #4 Kyler Murray, #5 Deandre Hopkins. Now usually on a slate like this you will see massive ownership on a few with a quick drop offs allowing you to find contrarian high value plays. However each of the above are between 55% – 46% owned and just below them are names like Chris Carson, Kenyan Drake, Christian Kirk even Greg Olsen is nearing 30% ownership. So here lies the strategy. Eat some chalk. When you look at both Quarterbacks you need to consider who will most likely be productive on each side. The Cardinals face a defense that is #32 against the pass and 7th against the run, while the Seahawks face a defense that is ranked 19th in the league against both run and pass. Without going to deep into stats, it is reasonable to believe that there will be a lot of scoring tonight. I think the most common lineup build on DK tonight will have either Kyler Murray or Russell Wilson in the Captain chair and then build down with his receivers and a cheap Arizona player to run back with. However if we are to assume this will be a shootout, I don’t think I want to exclude too many players from either side of the game. I think because this game has the chance to be a real shoot out the 5 – 1 (5 players on 1 side with 1 player from the other making 6 for your lineup) or even 4 – 2 strategies will be less likely to be successful. I think that a balanced 3-3 strategy will give you more opportunity for a high scoring lineup.
A great way to start a 3 – 3 build is to use the lead receiver on a team in the Captains seat. If that receiver acts as he should, you will want the 1.5 bonus on his points. Then I would build out my lineup with his quarterback and another skill position player that would not necessarily impede with your captain’s ability to receive targets or touchdowns. So not using a running back as your third player but choosing either a receiver who receives different targets in different formations or the kicker. With Arizona you have two receivers – Christian Kirk and Andy Isabella for example that see most of their success from deep ‘go’ style routes, where Deandre Hopkins is going to garner more volume and YAC. In a 3 – 3 I would then try and use the most likely players from the other side that can keep the game close. If you had Hopkins in as your Captain and Murray and Kirk in your flex, you may then use Chris Carson since he projects well and another Pass Catcher – be it Lockett and Metcalf. With money left over I’d look to see if you then round your stack up with a third option or fourth option in the passing game for instance Greg Olsen or David Moore who may see high low volume but high value targets, 3rd and longs and redzone. I like my DK Lineups to all project for at least 100 Points and if you can find a way to include Russell Wilson on the team I mentioned above, without completely punting the rest of the lineup – good for you!
FanDuel ownership is a little different tonight and may give you a chance for a more creative lineup. Your top 5 Owned Players on FanDuel project to be #1 Russell Wilson, #2 Chris Carson, #3 Kyler Murray, #4 DK Metcalf, #5 Kenyan Drake. Part of this is due to Running Backs having more advantage on FanDuel where receivers don’t get a bonus for yardage totals. However this also allows you to play Deandre Hopkins at 15% less ownership than DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett at nearly 20% less ownership of DK Metcalf. I personally feel this will be more of a passing shootout between the teams and less of run heavy game – but both Carson and Drake are capable pass catchers – so I do think the ownership there makes sense. The advantage you have on FanDuel is the increased salary cap, which really allows you to stack your lineup. I don’t have any issue using a Running Back in your MVP, but here I think your advantage will be to stick with Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson. Both offer running and passing yardage and both will be taking this game on their shoulders. Including whichever one you don’t have as your MVP in the flex is smart and stacking the receiving studs definitely make sense. You should be able to build out your lineup without many dart throws.
Overall you can see who my favorite players tonight are based on what I had listed in my earlier article regarding favorite stacks, top plays and dart throws. Generally I will be building my player pool from these names and building accordingly per site as I have mentioned here. I have copied and pasted that part of my earlier article here for you to take a look at. Nothing should be too surprising to see. Good Luck in your Contests tonight and hold onto your hats – this will be a wild one!
(Reposted from Week 7 DFS Article)
Favorite Stacks Murray-Hopkins, Murray-Hopkins-Kirk, Wilson-Metcalf, Wilson-Lockett
Top Plays: Kyler Murray, Deandre Hopkins, Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, Chris Carson
Secondary Plays: Christian Kirk, Tyler Lockett, Kenyan Drake
Dart Throws: Andy Isabella, David Moore