Week 8 – DFS Strategy & Picks – Real Deal Fantasy HQ

This week I am going to do something different. I am going to give you my “Slate Breakers” both expensive and cheap and I am not going to worry about Ownership. The reason why I am going to do this is because of results of a two week test that I ran on Draft Kings.

For the last two weeks I put $20 in on the Draft King’s $1 $40,000 20 Entry Max Tournament. This tournament regularly has around 300,000 entries. I did this because I wanted to test a theory I have been mulling around that in 2020, the ways to win at DFS have changed dramatically. So here is what I did.

On each of the 20 lineups I built a stack for every quarterback who was playing on the main slate. I stacked that Quarterback with their most likely target in the matchup (be it Wide Receiver, Tight End and in some cases pass catching running back) and then included a run back player from the same game (be it a running back, Wide Receiver or Tight End) who I believed would be the most likely target for the opposition to the quarterback I was starting. Then with my remaining dollars I stuck in one offs based on their ownership and cost. Where possible, I used the chalkiest players for example and when impossible due to cost, I played the best player I could find for my remaining budget. For defense I pinpointed the two games projected for the lowest scores (based on Vegas projections) and used one of those 4 defenses based on cost.

My results from the tournament were basically a push. In week 6 I won $22 with 30% of my lineups cashing and in week 7 I won $17 with 20% of my lineups cashing. I then went and looked at the top 2 lineups in the tournament from each week and what I discovered was that the winning lineups may have started a quarterback that I also had started, they actually avoided team stacking and instead focused on game stacking. So for instance in Week 7 My Justin Herbert lineup stacked Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry, the winning lineups stacked Herbert with the opposing Running Back James Robinson and the rest of the lineups were generally not correlated one offs. Fortunately both guys had either Davante Adams or Tyler Lockett as one of their one offs, but the flexibility in not stacking a Chargers Pass Catcher and their prices allowed for these players to nap top plays elsewhere.

That leads me to what I have for you today. A list. The list will be called “Slate Breakers”. These are plays that I think you should consider in building today. I think you should also consider that you may not necessarily need to have a perfectly correlated team stack to hit either. Today I will be playing a lot of Game Stacks within my lineups. That may be QB and Opposing Running Back or Opposing WR both of whom both of which I think will smash or it may be WR WR from two teams playing against one another. Or it could be Running Back and Defense from One team and nothing from his opposition. I believe we have all gotten very caught up in the traditional QB, WR stack and I for at least this week, will actually be avoiding the traditional.

What is a Slate Breaker? A Slate Breaker is a player that has the best potential to dominate the game with not just high yardage marks but with multiple touchdowns as well. Look at Davante Adams and Tyler Lockett in Week 7 or Derrick Henry in Week 6 as examples. These are beyond “great plays” which there are always a lot of. I would look at these picks as fundamentals for your lineups. Even if you don’t play as I do and go more traditional, look at these picks as the one offs that will surround your QB stacks.

At the end of the Slate Breaker List, I will give you an example lineup that I will be using on DK today with this method. So let’s get into it:

SLATE BREAKERS: QB

My picks here are based on a number of factors and you will see a lot of notable names absent. This is because I am weighing not just game opportunity and game environment (weather) into who I am listing.

High Price (Over 6K): Joe Burrow, Ryan Tannehill, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes

Low Price (Under 6K): Jimmy Garoppolo

Slate Breakers: RB

High Price (Over 6K): Derrick Henry, Kareem Hunt, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jamaal Williams, Dalvin Cook (if active), Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor

Low Price (Under 6K): Le’Veon Bell

Slate Breakers: WR

High Price (Over 6K): AJ Brown, Tyreek Hill, Marquise Brown, Tyler Boyd, Davante Adams

Low Price (Under 6K): Brandon Aiyuk, Cole Beasley, Michael Pittman

Slate Breakers: TE

High Price (Over 5K): Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, George Kittle, Jimmy Graham

Low Price (Under 5K): Jared Cook, Jonuu Smith, Harrison Bryant, Drew Sample, Cole Kmet

Slate Breakers: DST

High Price (Over 4K): Chiefs

Mid Price (Over 3K): Bills, Patriots, Titans, Saints

Low Price (Under 3K): Raiders, Browns, Bengals

Here is a lineup that I have put together on DK using my method of game stacks and high value one offs.

QB: Joe Burrow ($6,200)

RB 1: Derrick Henry ($8,000)

RB 2: Jamaal Williams (6,100)

WR 1: Tyreek Hill

WR 2: Marquise Brown ($6,100)

WR 3: Brandon Aiyuk ($5,800)

TE: Cole Kmet ($2,500)

Flex: Cole Beasley ($5,300)

DST: Bills ($3,300)

Projected Points: 118.4

Lastly, touching on ownership:

Top Owned DK QBs: Jimmy Garoppolo, Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert

Top Owned DK RBs: Jamaal Williams, Kareem Hunt, Derrick Henry

Top Owned DK WRs: Keenan Allen, Tyler Lockett, Denzel Mims

Top Owned DK TEs: George Kittle, Travis Kelce, Darren Waller

Top Owned DK DSTs: Saints, Packers, Bills

Good Luck in your Contests!

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