You ever have one of those weekends where you decide to put the TV Outside and put together a little neighborhood BBQ and get your best bud over to cook ribs, steaks, wings and more on the grill with and have a bunch of beers and just enjoy the weather while it lasts? Oh and forget to really do anything with your Fantasy Football Lineups and still go 3 – 0 in your 3 leagues and forget to adjust the dummy lineups you made on Thursday on Draft Kings and still win some green? No? Oh sorry #Humblebrag. But as great as the last 48-72 hours have been for me personally, why is it that I feel like the good times are about to hit a wall, a wall known as the 2020 Patriots vs the 2020 Jets on Monday Night Football? Oh sorry – too soon? Yeah that is what we are here to talk about. So without further ado ….
(By the way, since I know your mouth is watering from the menu I just described from my BBQ so I will tell you the two “Best Bites” as voted on by the guests were the massive porterhouse steak grilled masterfully by yours truly and the Alabama White Sauce Hot Wing grilled masterfully by my buddy. Hungry yet?)
First off – did you know that MY Patriots Defense has not allowed a Passing Touchdown since Week 5? Yeah, it’s true – go ahead and check the stats. And yes MY Patriots as in @DelrayBoston – that is cause I love my Patriots – but I promise I won’t be biased. So let’s get into it.
CAM NEWTON is not only the most likely Captain to Hit via projections, tonight he is literally the most owned player at 95% Ownership on both Draft Kings and FanDuel and normally I would say – holy cow, easy fade for me – but I can’t here. Why? Let’s honestly look at this slate of players and honestly ask – how do you fade Cam here. He averages 25 Pass Attempts per game (ok not amazing) but he also averages 10 Rush Attempts per game. The reality is this. If he completes 80% of his passes for a minimum of 250 yards and rushes for a minimum of 35 yards, he hits over 20 Fantasy Points. So you are talking about a floor of roughly 19 Fantasy Points and a ceiling of roughly 31. No other player in this game has the Floor to Ceiling Ratio than Cam. So despite the incredibly high ownership, I just don’t think you will be able to cash tonight without a piece of Cam and he is my #1 target for Captain/MVP.
If you want to be a bit Contrarian (and to be honest, at 95% Cam Ownership everything else is contrarian) I’d consider JAKOBI MEYERS who last week saw 10 Targets last week and was far and away the most targeted pass catcher on the Patriots Offense. The Jets are giving up just a hair under 300 yards per game and should Meyers see that level of target share again the opportunity for a 100 yard game and a Touchdown pass increase dramatically. You would also save a significant amount of salary off Cam who is $17K on FD and $19.8K on DK as Captain. Meyers comparatively is $11K on FD and $13.5K on DK at Captain.
On the other side of the ball you could look to Joe Flacco who is starting tonight but if I am playing a Jets captain I think the best possible option would be JAMISON CROWDER. With Flacco under center, Crowder is averaging a massive 20 targets per game and while with both Denzel Mims and Breshard Perriman active that may take a hit – if he sees 15 Targets and Catches 10 for 90+ yards and a score, would you be upset at the results as your Captain/MVP? I would not be.
I should note however if you really want to be contrarian in your Captains pick, this may be a week you consider Defenses. The PATRIOTS Defense has been pretty solid keeping most opponents to under 30 points and despite the struggles have 9 Interceptions and 10 Sacks on the season and to be fair you are talking about a Jets team that is averaging a hair under 20 points per game. I also think you could save a lot of salary and be extremely Contrarian if you look at Jet’s backup kicker SERGIO CASTILLO who could provide the Jets’ only points tonight. And if you are really feeling gutsy and want to go way off the grid, The JETS DEFENSE is seeing little ownership overall. Look as much as Cam Newton could be a smash play, to say anything but he is a volatile player is an under statement. Interception(s), Sack(s), Fumble Recoveries … all within the realm of possibility here. I think this is going to be a low scoring game and in that kind of scenario either defense is viable.
If you aren’t starting Cam in your Captain/MVP, I think he is a must start in your Flex/Utlity spot of your lineup. The bottom line is his ownership is too high that if he goes off for 30+ points, it will be extremely hard for you to cash tonight without him.
I also want to stress that any of the plays I mentioned at Captain or MVP are viable for Flex/Utility. They are good plays for a reason after all. The thing to note however is that in the case of Cam. Meyers and Crowder you are seeing north of 40% ownership. So fading one, could pay off (except for Cam) and so we need to chat about other options to consider.
With both N’Keal Harry and Julian Edelman out, I think you need to be on DAMEIRE BYRD and if mass multi-entering, GUNNER OLSZEWSKI. Neither man saw more than 4 targets from Cam last week but with the amount of available Patriots Pass Catchers dwindling, I think having a share of these guys would be a good idea. I wouldn’t play them together but a three man stack with Cam, Meyers and one or the other could pay dividends. For deeper consideration, I’d take a look at RYAN IZZO who has had a catch in the last 3 games. The Jets are ranked 25th against Tight Ends and while it isn’t an optimal play, it certainly could be a contrarian one.
I’d also consider the Patriots Running Backs. DAMIEN HARRIS does carry a questionable tag but if he plays he will be a solid choice. He already has 2 100 yard games on the season and the Jets are giving up an average of 100 yards per game on the ground. Harris also has been involved in the passing game. You can also look to JAMES WHITE who has a fairly designed role as a pass catching back in the patriots offense seeing 4+ targets per game. If Harris doesn’t play however, I really like REX BURKHEAD who should see most of the snaps between the tackles. Burkhead has a three touchdown game under his belt but that isn’t something you can expect. He just has been more of a runner than White and so from a volume perspective Burkhead has my vote. I’d also keep an eye on kicker NICK FOLK who right now carries a Q tag on his name. This has the makings of a low scoring game and if so, Kickers may play a pivotal role. While I would not play both Kickers or both defenses together, I think Folk makes a contrarian piece to your Cam Newton Stacks and he has been pretty good so far this season for the Pats.
On the Jets side, LA’MICAL PERINE is seeing a fair amount of ownership. As the Jets’ pass catching back it is easy to see why. In addition to averaging around 7 touches per game on the ground he is also seeing 2-3 receptions per game and I much prefer taking a chance on him than Frank Gore against a fairly stout Patriots Run Defense. I also think you can consider JOE FLACCO here, which while not exciting, with give you a player that will at least have passing volume on his side. While I don’t like either DENZEL MIMS or BRESHARD PERIMAN or BRAXTON BARRIOS as a Captain, especially if you are multi-entering I would look to have a share of each. Even if their target share takes a hit with Crowder back on the field, both men represent down the field targets for the Jets and it is tough to say which will get the lockdown treatment from the Patriots and Stefon Gilmore. Also because they largely have a different role from Crowder, I don’t mind stacking one of them with Crowder and Flacco. If you are a glutton for punishment, you can always take a shot on FRANK GORE in the Jets offense too. If for anything else, volume – Gore could get you there. He is getting an average of 12 rushing attempts per game and even though the Patriots have a solid defense, sometimes volume can win out.
All in all I think this is a fairly low scoring affair that the Patriots squeak a victory out of. Here is an example Lineup I am rolling out tonight:
Jakobi Meyers – Captain
Cam Newton – Flex
Damien Harris – Flex
Ryan Izzo – Flex
Patriots Defense – Flex
Jamison Crowder – Flex
La’mical Perine – Flex
Total Salary: $49,500
Good Luck in your Contests!