Week 10 DFS Strategy & Picks – Real Deal Fantasy HQ – 4 Games + 1 and Darts

Week 10 is here and it has a special magic in the air. Tons of value available due to injuries but also some returning players that could have really big impacts! And in potentially the sign of the apocalypse – The Eagles are actually HEALTHY and playing the Giants. God Save us all.

In this article I am going to break down the 4 games that I am targeting the most in my DFS Contests today PLUS one game that is off the board, meaning no one is really paying a lot of attention to that I want to attack. I will finish with my darts – different than dart throw picks, my darts are additional players, strategies and thoughts that just didn’t belong in the rest of the article. My goal here is to help you and your DFS Lineups today and hopefully we can all CASH!

One thing I wanted to mention here are the single game Showdowns which are available for every game, not just Primetime games. I think these contests are largely overlooked on Sundays by most players but smart players are attacking them. I will be attacking them today. There are several games today that could go off and it is very tough to try and have a piece of each of them in a standard lineup without sacrificing other plays that could be solid individually. By mixing in some showdowns in your game, you can focus on games that you think will be high scoring and competitive without worrying if you are missing the boat elsewhere. Just a suggestion. Ok here are my building block games – 4 Games + 1.

Game 1: Buffalo Bills vs Arizona Cardinals

Easily the most anticipated game of the week is Kyler vs Allen and it comes with good reason. Two of the most exciting young quarterbacks in the league squaring off against each other, each with Elite pass catchers and “ok” defenses to attack. Yes it is true – everyone is talking about this game – but I think it will be pretty tough to avoid in your lineups, kinda like a delicious pizza at a party when you are hungry… you gotta have a piece.

Josh Allen is projected to be the highest owned Quarterback on the slate. It’s no wonder really. Allen is coming off a game where he threw for 415 yards, 3 scores and no interceptions. Oh yeah and he also had a rushing score. The upside is clear. The Cardinals have been pretty decent against WRs but have been near bottom of the league against QBs. So you have to like Allen today, especially with the Cardinals are giving up on average almost 270 total yards through the air. But he will be the Chalk today, so you will need to find some plays to balance that out.

Unlike the popularity of Josh Allen, the one piece of this game that is being criminally ignored is the Bill’s Backfield. Namely Devin Singletary and Zack Moss. Now this play comes with risk as the projected game script here is that this will be a QB Duel and a shootout – but I want to throw this stat to you. The Cardinals rank 22nd in the league against the run, giving up over 120 yards per game. Right now Devin Singletary has roughly 1% ownership in tournaments. Moss slightly more at 2.3%. I want to throw this scenario out to you. The Bills are on the 2 yard line, more than once in this game. Yes, Josh Allen is always a threat to run the ball in – BUT what if they go run 1st and they score. Zack Moss touchdown. And they do that 2 or 3 times in the game. In this case, I like Moss more as an extremely low owned play in an expected competitive game – with UPSIDE and NO OWNERSHIP. I’m just saying.

Stefon Diggs is an elite play today. If you want to go into the metrics of Diggs historically vs the Defensive scheme that the Cardinals deploy most often – buy a subscription to a service you trust and dig into it. I day that in jest. But it is a good idea to do so. But you came here for free advice and so listen – Stefon Diggs is an elite play today. He is projected a very high 25% ownership today but there is a term to know – Good Chalk vs Bad Chalk. There is bad chalk on this slate today. Diggs is a Good Chalk. Nuff Ced.

But Stefon Diggs is not the only pass catcher. I like the stack with Allen and John “Smoky” Brown who is healthy and had a great game last week (his first fully healthy in awhile) 8 for 99. Could I see Brown hit 100 yards and a score? Hell yes! As much as Diggs is an elite play, stack Allen with Brown who is projected at ⅓ the ownership and as much of an opportunity! Also criminally under owned today is Cole Beasley. Look, you can’t discount how often Allen looks to Beasley and in a shootout type game with a lot of points expected to be scored, a reliable option like Beasley is a value. Diggs is an elite choice but a Stack with Allen, Brown and Beasley will be very different and carries the upside of this matchup.

If Allen is the Most Owned QB on the Slate – rest assured Kyler Murray is the Second Most Owned. So what’s calling all this. How about a guy who has two straight weeks of 40+ Fantasy points and a Week 9 performance for the ages. 236 yards and 3 touchdowns PLUS 106 yards on the ground an a rushing score. The Bills are second worst in the league against QBs. Do I need to talk more about why Kyler is a great play today? But again we are talking about the second highest owned quarterback on the slate. So you need to keep that in mind as you build your lineups.

It’s expected that Tre’davious White will see a lot of Deandre Hopkins today. That shouldn’t be a discount statement. White is an elite shadow style corner and Hopkins has not always performed well in that type of scenario. This is not me saying don’t play Nuk here – he is arguably the best receiver in the league talent wise. It is me saying proceed with caution. First he is the second highest priced WR on the slate (second only to Davante Adams) and he has had 3 games where he has scored 11 fantasy points or less including last week where he ended at 6 points. Tough to eat 11 points or under at north of $7,500 salary. However, the amount of focus on this game to Diggs is overshadowing everyone so 13% owned Deandre Hopkins may be the lowest ownership you see on him all season long so that is a plus. My preferred pass catcher here though is Christian Kirk who has had two straight weeks of 8 targets and put on a show last week with 123 yards and a score. Additionally we have seen how they are using Kirk as the down field threat and I think there is significant reason to believe we will see several deep throws by Kyler in this game. Kirk is not only half of DHop’s price he is surprisingly projected at only 11% ownership. I like Kirk a lot today.

Kenyan Drake is expected to play today and that makes me want to stay away from the Cardinals Backfield. I think anyone with working eyes can see that Chase Edmunds has been the more explosive back but with him sharing snaps with Drake it just doesn’t make me excited to use either man in a DFS tournament. For what it’s worth it seems most DFS players agree with me as neither man is carrying any ownership. However I think that is for a reason and for me both are fade, outside of maybe a dart throw flex play on a couple lineups. I prefer Edmunds to Drake.

Favorite Play in this game: Stefon Diggs

Top Plays: Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, Diggs, John Brown, Christian Kirk

Secondary Plays: Deandre Hopkins, Cole Beasley, Zack Moss

Dart Throws: Chase Edmunds, Devin Singletary

Game 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers

Mike Davis is going to be the highest owned player on the entire slate today. on Draft Kings. Why? Well first Christian McCaffery is out. Second, the news of McCaffery being out came after Draft Kings set pricing for the main slate this week. Mike Davis is $4,000 on Draft Kings. The Starting running back who has performed solidly for 7 games this season is only $4,000. He is the epitome of a free square. The Bucs are the #1 Defense against the Run, but they are giving up an average 7 receptions to running backs. What does Mike Davis do well – catch passes. If you are playing Head to Heads, 50/50s and the like (aka Cash Games) I think he is a MUST PLAY. Tournaments though – this is my call here and not agreed by most of the industry – I think he is bad chalk. Davis has more sub 15 fantasy point games than he does 20+ fantasy point games this season and I see this game being a sub 15 fantasy point game for Davis. Just my opinion. I will be underweight in tournaments as I like other Carolina Panthers more here.

First is Curtis Samuel. The reason here is that over the last two games he has been the X in this offense and if you look at the Buccaneers, they have had trouble with the X this season. Sure they held Mike Thomas to only 10 catches and under 100 yards last week but Thomas isn’t the X keep in mind there. Samuel is seeing opportunities through the air but also on the ground and I love the dual threat nature here. I am really high on Samuel today. You also have some news coming out of the Bucs camp that maybe their secondary isn’t as healthy today as expected. So why is Robbie Anderson coming in at sub 6% ownership. I mean get after it. I don’t even hate DJ Moore here – yes he has been bad, but the reality is this game could shoot out. I want every piece pass catching piece I can. If you think 6% ownership on Anderson is crazy how about 2% for Moore. I don’t hate a Samuel, Anderson stack with Bridgewater at all and I’ll take some shots on Moore as a dart throw.

You want to know a big story that NFL Network broke today? The Buccaneers travelled close to 12 hours to get to this game and that includes 6+ hours being stuck on a plane that couldn’t unload them. They got to their hotel at Midnight. Why am I saying this? I don’t think it effects the offensive skill position players but think about this big 300+ pound lineman and offensive linemen being stuck on a plane for 6+ hours during the night. So I think playing Panthers today are a good idea. Mike Davis (as much as I am not a fan) could be a smash play at $4,000 and all of the pass catchers I mentioned. These players are humans after all and while it isn’t a guarantee this knowledge on the last 24 hours of the Bucs travel schedule shouldn’t be discounted.

Tom Brady has to be pissed. Not only the worst performance of his CAREER but also the worst performance of a Tom Brady led offense as a whole, of his career. So what’s he gonna do about it. Well – what we hope is that he comes out and lights the Panthers up. BUT and this is a big BUT, I think the Bucs actually go run heavy today. It’s not to say Brady isn’t a good play – he is and you are getting him at very low ownership. But the Panthers have some severe weaknesses in their rushing defense and while they have been sneaky good against the pass, they actually rush the quarterback at the 7th worst rate in the league. So while I think the Panthers expect Brady to come out throwing, I think there will be a lot of Ronald Jones and more notably Leonard Fournette in this game that will help to slow what I expect a very fast paced Panthers offense by – keeping them on the sideline. I think some very sneaky plays here are both Jones and Fournette, neither seeing much ownership attention. Take advantage.

Look – no one wants to say this out loud, but this could be the Antonio Brown break out. He saw 5 targets last week but now faces a Panthers Defense that isn’t even close to the pressure rate on Quarterbacks than the Saints. Like 45% less pass rush to be a little more exact. When Brady has time he can carve up anyone and I think Brown is fast on his way to being Brady’s favorite target. Brown is a very sneaky play today with so much attention being paid to receivers in other games. He also is fairly priced. I like the Brady Brown Stack. This isn’t to say Chris Godwin or Mike Evans are bad plays – absolutely not. The bottom line is the Bucs have arguably the most talented pass catching core in the NFL. Any of these guys could go off. I just like Brown a little more today.

I also like The Gronk. Had Gronk caught that Touchdown last week he would be in the conversation everywhere regarding Tight Ends – but he didn’t and he is not being talked about. The Gronk Brady Chemistry is a real thing – I know, I lived it, I’m a Pats fan. Gronk should see plenty of opportunities today and he isn’t even close to being the top owned tight end on the slate. Not even close. I think a Brady – Gronk stack is not one anyone will be playing, but I will be.

Favorite Play in this Game: Curtis Samuel

Top Plays: Robbie Anderson, Antonio Brown, Leonard Fournette, Mike Davis, Tom Brady

Secondary Plays: Rob Gronkowski, Mike Evans, Ronald Jones, Teddy Bridgewater, Chris Godwin

Dart Throws: DJ Moore, Cameron Brate, Ian Thomas

Game 3: LA Rams vs Seattle Seahawks

Here is some quick analysis. Play Rams Pass Catchers against the Seattle Defense. They are (to coin a term that has been tossed around) the cheat code to the difficult nintendo game of the NFL this season. So instead of heavy analysis I’ll just rank them in the order in which I prefer:

  1. Cooper Kupp – of all of the weakness in the Seahawks secondary the slot is the weakest
  2. Robert Woods – just a great play, not just for his pass catching, but his rushing
  3. Josh Reynolds – has seen 3 or more targets in every game this season and I could see a touchdown coming
  4. Tyler Higbee/Gerald Everett – No one seems to like Higbee today probably because he is expensive but either guy are a nice way to round out a Rams stack. I prefer the WRs to TEs today but if you play for the Rams and Catch Passes against the Seahawks you are in play.

So with all of that said, the analytics tell you that Jared Goff is an elite play today. He plays against the leagues worst passing defense, he is well rested after coming off a bye week and he is at home. He is also the 3rd highest owned quarterback on the slate with Kupp and Woods also seeing north of 15% ownership. So know you won’t be alone in playing your Rams – but like I said there is Good Chalk and Bad Chalk and I think Goff and his pass catchers (primarily Kupp and Woods) are Good Chalk.

I will say though, I am not crazy about the Rams Backfield. The Seahawks for their deficiencies in the secondary have been fairly stout against the Run and Darrell Henderson is banged up, Malcolm Brown just doesn’t excite anyone and seemingly the Rams just don’t want to play Cam Akers. Look – there is a game theory here that a Rams Running back could walk away with multiple touchdowns simply due to red zone and goal line opportunities certainly potentially be available multiple times today. But I think you are playing a Rams running back in hopes of that scenario playing out. So the three are a fade to me – too much risk involved and you have cheaper options available on this slate.

Russell Wilson has a hill to climb today. Pound for Pound the Rams are the #1 Defense in the league. They are great against Quarterbacks. They are good against Running Backs and they are Good against Pass Catchers. So what is a MVP Hopeful to do. He needs to make something happen and no one is better at doing that than Russell Wilson. Look to this game to be very competitive as Wilson will need to Cook Today. Therefore Wilson is always in play. From an ownership perspective, Wilson is just below Goff regarding ownership. People recognize that this game has great potential for points. I like Wilson today mostly as a Pivot to the more popular Goff on the other side.

DK Metcalf vs Jalen Ramsey is easily the most anticipated Wide Receiver Corner Back matchup of the week. Two Heavyweights going head to head right? Not really. Yes Metcalf will see plenty of Ramsey – but Ramsey is not normally a shadow cover player. Ramsey makes his impact in a Zone scheme and when I hear DK Metcalf is going into a game against a Zone Scheme, I smile. Here is the thing. Everyone is looking at this matchup as being a down game for Metcalf due to Ramsey. Therefore – DK Metcalf is seeing 10% ownership. 10% ownership – what? Take your shots on Metcalf today. It could pay off in spades.

Everyone loves Tyler Lockett today. Lockett is the 5th highest owned Wide Receiver. So what’s causing all this. Well first – it’s been two weeks of DK Metcalf Games so now it’s Lockett’s turn. Yuck. That is literally a line I heard on 3 podcasts this week. Second – Jalen Ramsey will SHUT DOWN DK Metcalf so Lockett will see all the targets. Well that was addressed above and I don’t think that is entirely true. Third – Aaron Donald will chase Russ around the field and when Russ is scrambling he looks for Lockett the most to bail him out. Ok now that one I believe. Lockett does have a great opportunity today – BUT – if we are talking about a primarily zone defense of the Rams, that means they will try and keep as much in front of them as possible. So I actually see Lockett’s upside limited – on paper. That being said, Lockett is firmly in play today. Russ will be cooking – grab any piece of that puzzle. I do prefer Metcalf a little more though due to the ownership disparity.

Also – David Moore – this guy has been a great source for Fantasy Points and if Metcalf and Lockett are being shut down, Moore finds a way to sneak out receptions and touchdowns. At only $3,400 on Draft Kings you have a player with double digit upside. Grab some shares of Moore.

Both Carlos Hyde and Chris Carson are out. That means Deejay Dallas will get the start. Due to the amount of attention Mike Davis is getting, Dallas is being entirely ignored with a similar opportunity. The Rams don’t scare me on the ground and Dallas could be a very sneaky play today for solid production. And at the SAME PRICE as Mike Davis, don’t ignore Travis Homer in this game who should see third down and change of pace snaps today and has solid pas catching chops.

Favorite Play in this Game: Cooper Kupp

Top Plays: Jared Goff, Robert Woods, Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett

Secondary Plays: Deejay Dallas, Josh Reynolds, Rams Tight Ends

Dart Throws: David Moore, Travis Homer, Greg Olsen

Game 4: Green Bay Packers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Snow is expected in Green Bay. The Jaguars are from Florida. Why do I like this game? Three Reasons: Aaron Rogers, Aaron Jones, Davante Adams. All of these names are highly owned today and for good reason. I just don’t see the Jaguars stopping Rogers, Jones and Adams. They are as close to the Top Plays on the entire slate as you can get. I will have a lot of them – do you need me to give you analysis?

I also think the Packers Defense is a smart play today.

Seriously though if you are looking for some value on the Packers side of the ball I like Marquez Valdez-Scantling a good deal today. While the deep ball is his specialty and the deep ball in a snow game isn’t likely multiple times, you only need a couple to get the job done. He is cheap and he is not very highly owned at all. I also like Tight End Robert Tonyon who if the weather gets worse in the second half could see a lot of targets in the short yardage. The Jaguars defense is not good against well anyone, but they have been torched by Tight Ends. Tonyon is in my player pool. I think you also need to consider Jamaal Williams who will see a decent amount of snaps especially if the Packers go up big and they want to rest Aaron Jones. Williams is an adept pass catcher and makes a solid flex play today.

Jake Luton surprised everyone last week in his debut and now he gets to play the Packers at home in the snow. Good Luck. You want to be super contrarian – take a shot on Luton. Anything can happen. If you do I would stack him with DJ Chark. As I predicted last week – rookie quarterback in his first start, he is going to lean on his #1 Pass catcher. He did. In a very difficult matchup today, I think we see more of that.

However the piece of the Jaguars that I want the most in my lineup is Running Back James Robinson who is surprisingly only projected at around 13% ownership today. The Packers are GOD AWFUL against the Run (see Davlin Cook as example) and with an 85% Snap Share, Robinson will be the guy. Especially if the weather is a factor, I could see the Jags concentrating on the run even in a negative Game Script. I think Robinson could be a slate breaker today.

Favorite Play in this Game: Aaron Jones

Top Plays: Davante Adams, Aaron Rogers, James Robinson

Secondary Plays: DJ Chark, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Jamaal Adams, Robert Tonyon

Dart Throws: Jake Luton

DARTS:

  1. The Browns and the Texans is a game that is being completely overlooked today. Largely due to 25 MPH Winds expected. But you have Nick Chubb back for the Browns and you have an extremely cheap Duke Johnson starting for the Texans. I like both guys. I also like Deshawn Watson here. These teams need to win and in a situation like that I think Watson is one of the best. Sneaky play here is Randall Cobb who has probably the best matchup against the Browns Secondary. I also like Austin Hooper on the other side. If winds are bad, Baker may be looking at underneath throws. Hooper and Kareem Hunt – both in play.
  2. I referenced it above – the Eagles are Healthy. Alshon is back, Raeger is back, Miles Sanders is back, Dallas Goedert is back. An Eagles Stack is being completely ignored against the Giants. I’d take some shots. And Miles Sanders is a great play today at RB. If you want to run an Eagles stack back with a Giant I like Evan Engram the best. This is a great Showdown tournament choice. I also like the Eagles Defense against the Giants.
  3. I think another sleeper is the Washington Football Team against the Lions. Alex Smith is making is first start in over 700 days and I think people aren’t looking at this as a great game for Fantasy. Yes most of Smith’s performances so far this season have been check down after check down but both times we saw him he was coming in as a reliever. Now he has had a full week practicing as the starter and the Lions defense is TRASH. Antonio Gibson is a fine play as is JD McKissic – but Terry McLauren being TOTALLY IGNORED. Why? Take a shot here… seriously. I also really like the Washington defense. They are expensive, but they have been solid and I think there is a lot of positive emotion on that team this week with Smith back under center. Don’t sleep on Gibson, McLauren or McKissic.

GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS!!

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