Sunday Night Showdown – Packers Bears – Week 12 – One of the oldest Rivalries in the NFL is renewed!

I am sure we will see plenty of historical footage of the many past meetings of these two teams, but tonight we are hoping for new highlights that will help us win our DFS Showdown Tournaments. What makes this game interesting for me, frankly, is that both sides of the game are healthy – knock on wood, no Covid 19 positives and injuries have healed, save one Nick Foles. Which means it’s a return to the field for Frisky Mitchy Trubisky! So now we get to see what Trubisky can do with his full compliment of weapons. Color me interested. Plus Aaron Rogers has his blue chip receiver Alan Lazard back and could that help to expand the horizon for the Packers offense? We shall see. So let’s GO!

My Captain/MVP Picks

I think the natural inclination here will be to plug in Aaron Rogers in the Captain spot on DK and the MVP spot on FanDuel and build from there. It is certainly understandable being that he is playing at an extremely high level this season and has the preverbial chip on his shoulder after a few up and down weeks. However the last 3 Games that Rogers has played against the Chicago Bears he has only averaged 226 yards, including 2 of those games nearly breaking 200 yards passing. Additionally he has thrown for 2 touchdowns and 1 interception over those last 3 games against the Bears. So for me, he isn’t the automatic lock and load at the top spot. Additionally he is the second most expensive player on the slate as well as the projected highest owned player on the slate, which when you have that combination I always get a little more nervous when it comes to my Captain spot.

So if not Rogers – who and perhaps more importantly – is a Packer the optimal play at the 1.5x point position in your lineup? I think the first guy to look at is Davante Adams who over that same last 3 game span against the Bears has two 100+ yard games and 2 Touchdowns. I think on FanDuel he is my favorite Packer in the MVP spot, where on Draft Kings as solid of a play as he is the pricing makes me pause. Additionally he is projected to be the highest owned player on the entire slate. So in other words by rostering both Adams and Rogers together you have to get different to try and seperate yourself from 65% of the field in tournaments. Both should be staples of a “cash game’ lineup, but I also don’t hate the idea of roster Adams without Rogers either.

So if not Adams or Rogers as Captain – then who? Aaron Jones will have a tougher matchup tonight against the Bears but the last time these two teams played in 2019 he did have 2 Touchdowns, despite the struggles between the tackles. One plus for Jones however is that it is very likely that the Bears will be keying in on Rogers dropping back he could have additional targets in the passing game. Jones is chalky but not even close to the ownership levels of Rogers or Adams – but I do think that largely has to do with the salaries. It is very tough to build a lineup with all 3 men on Draft Kings and the majority of the field is likely making a choice – who do they like better Adams or Jones and they are going Adams. On DK, I don’t mind taking shots on Jones in the top spot as a pivot from Adams or Rogers. On FanDuel I prefer Adams and Rogers as MVP.

The way I am most likely leaning however on DK is to go off the board a little at Captain with my first target being the previously mentioned Alan Lazard who currently projects at 50% of Adam’s Ownership and also is roughly half of Adam’s cost as well. Yes we have not seen Lazard in a full compliment of snaps in a very, very long time. However I believe in the trust that Rogers has in Lazard and if he can’t get the ball to Adams, he’ll be looking Lazard’s way. I also think you can take a shot on Marquez Valdez-Scantling here as a salary saver and a very contrarian play here. MVS has had a troubling year to say the least. However, despite some questionable drops we have seen Rogers continue to try and go deep down the field and with his role slightly defined as the deep ball guy, you don’t need him to get 10 targets and 8 catches to necessarily get you yardage, if Rogers can catch the Bears sleeping deep. Plus with Lazard back on the field I think most DFS players have written MVS off. I also think Jamaal Williams is a deep dart throw for Captain here and an interesting pivot from Aaron Jones. Williams has proven a capable receiver and they have even run him in two back sets with Jones. Williams saw 5 carries and two targets and a Touchdown last week. Same also goes for Tight End Robert Tonyon who has seemingly been added to the Rogers Circle of Trust and also has been a Red Zone target as well and makes as an interesting pivot from Lazard when stacked with Rogers. After a down week 9, Tonyon has seen 9 targets from Rogers over the last two games gaining 77 yards and a score. The Bears happen to be near the bottom of the league against Tight Ends by the way and Tonyon could be in line for a big game.

On a whole the worry I have for the Packers offense goes back to Aaron Rogers’ recent performances against the Bears. The Bears have seemingly had Rogers’ number as of late and we will need a big game from Rogers for any of the above picks to really get there. We shall see if the ‘Goat’ can rewrite this narrative tonight.

Honestly for me though The Bears present my preferred Captain/MVP Picks. First – no Bear is even close to the ownership of Adams and Rogers, which I like. Second, the most expensive Bear on the slate is Allen Robinson and he is still a savings of over $2,000 on DK from Adams, with (in my opinion) just as much opportunity being the clear target leader for Chicago. In two of the last three meetings with the Packers, Robinson has gone for over 100 yards as has Adams. The difference though comes with Robinson’s lack of touchdowns against Green Bay. If he can again go for over 100 and get in the end zone tonight, he really makes for an excellent pivot from Adams in the top position.

However, I think you will believe me crazy when I say this but I kinda have a think for Mitchell Trubisky as Captain. Here me out. Over the last three meetings with the Packers, Trubisky has thrown for 3 Touchdowns and that includes an over 300 yard performance when he last met them in 2019. Now he did also have 2 interceptions in that game, but that kinda comes part and parcel with a Trubisky start in my opinion. The one interesting thing about Trubisky is his running, which to the Packers credit they held him to 23 yards or fewer over those last 3 meetings – however, this is now a Packers Defense that is giving up well over 100 yards per game on the season and I wonder if Mitchy can get Frisky tonight. I like the risky here and in a tournament sometimes you gotta be crazy. Mitch is a popular play tonight but again, +20% less ownership than Rogers and nearly $3,000 less than Rogers on DK.

I think another interesting choice for Captain is David Montgomery. The issue here is, well, David Montgomery. He just hasn’t looked great at all this season. However we have seen the Packers be very generous (to say the least) to running backs as of late and I think if you are multi-entering, I think having a couple shots on Montgomery isn’t a bad idea. Montgomery has played the Packers twice before (in 2019) and he hasn’t been able to turn the corner so we will see if that can change tonight. You aren’t really getting any ownership discount versus Aaron Jones as they both are hovering around 45% but you are getting nearly a $2,000 discount, which also makes him interesting.

The issue that I have using any other Bear in the Captain spot is that we simply haven’t seen them enough with Trubisky to know where he is going with the ball. Yes, Jimmy Graham has been kinda think this year but will Trubisky look his way the way Foles has. We don’t know. I think the same thing can be said for rookie Darnell Mooney who Foles has targeted deep often this season and rarely connect. Can Trubisky connect deep with Mooney tonight? Can you risk a goose egg in the Captain/MVP spot, just for the salary savings he gets you? I think if you are going to go deep diving here the guy to look to is Anthony Miller. The last time Miller stepped on the field against the Packers with Trubisky under center he saw 15 Targets and went for 115 and a score. Could Trubisky be the Anthony Miller whisperer? He is minimum salary on DK and if I am going diving at Captain he is my pick. Maybe lightning strikes twice and I love the salary savings I get with him.

The other way to look at Captain/MVP is to consider that this could end up being a slow paced, low scoring game and that Kickers could make the difference. So keep Mason Crosby and Cairo Santos in your player pool. I prefer Crosby to Santos only because I prefer the Packers Offense to the Bears, but both these guys are in play. If you also consider that neither of these teams lights up the numbers in reference to speed of play too, I don’t mind taking a shot with a couple entries with the Defenses in the Captain spot on DK. Keep in mind that just because you roster a defense in Showdown doesn’t mean you can’t also roster the opposing Quarterback. For instance you could roster the Packers Defense at Captain and even though Trubisky throws 2 picks and is sacked 5 times, he could still throw for over 300 yards and a score or run for 50 yards and both the Defense and the Quarterback ‘get there’ from a point perspective.

Flex, Flex, Flex it up

If I am rostering Mitchell Trubisky in the Captain spot I am including as many of his pass catching options as I can. Robinson, Miller, Mooney and or Graham. I think in the flex taking a shot on Cordarrelle Patterson too isn’t crazy. With Montgomery back on the field I think people will stay away from Patterson, but the Bears line him up all over the field and it isn’t crazy to think he could get a target that takes him into the end zone or even a Goal Line run. Also a sneaky play is to stack Patterson with the Bears DST. Should he get a run back on a kick return, you’ll get points from both. SNEAKY!! I also think if you are multi-entering and in lineups that don’t contain Montgomery, an interesting and very cheap pivot is Lamar Miller who will likely back Montgomery up and again – he could be the guy on a goal line stand and NOBODY is looking at Miller tonight.

In lineups that I am not using Trubisky, I’ll have Montgomery. I think the threat of Trubisky running kinda crosses the wires with the Bears running game and it also remains to be seen if Trubisky will target Montgomery at all considering he rarely did in 2019. I don’t mind including Patterson with Montgomery only because the gadget plays Patterson often is used on compliment the running game. I think the stack of Montgomery and the Bears defense will be a popular way people run back a 4 man Packers stack tonight, so I will have little interest in doing so on my lineups. I think a unique approach to that would be to pay up for Allen Robinson in place of Montgomery in that two man stack with the Defense.

With Rogers, I am not as inclined to stack every pass catcher with him but certainly the Rogers Adams stack could be the game winner, despite being super chalky. I will go two deep with the stack though, throwing in either Lazard or Tonyon. In lineups that I don’t use Lazard at all I will include MVS. I also don’t mind stacking Rogers with Jones either, or Jamaal Williams. Simply because the way the Packers use their running backs, both will see targets from Rogers and equally as capable as catching a touchdown as they are running one in. I also think the Rogers Adams two man stack will be UBER popular as run backs for four man Bears stacks. Most of the Bears are so cheap you can make that work. I think it will be unique to run a five man Bears stack with Trubisky, Robinson, Allen, Santos and either Patterson or Miller and choose one Packer to run it back with – Rogers, Adams or Jones. I think more people in tournaments tonight will want to cram Packers into their lineup than Bears, so doing the opposite could be different enough to help you cash. Though certainly Rogers-Adams-Lazard-Jones-Packers D and (enter cheap Bears player here) may end up being the optimal play – we shall see!

For what it’s worth, I think lineups with 4 – 2 combinations, favoring the winning team (whichever you believe that will be) will end up the most optimal, but see where the builds take you and remember in Showdown Tournaments you don’t need to spend all of your salary cap to get your best lineups. If you like what you see and you still have a $1,000 left to spend – trust your gut and not the part of your brain that is saying, oh you have more money – spend it! MOST PLAYERS WILL DO THAT AND TO WIN A SHOWDOWN TOURNAMENT YOU NEED TO THINK DIFFERENTLY! Can’t stress that enough!

GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS!

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