Week 16 DFS Strategy & Picks – Real Deal Fantasy HQ – The most value heavy slate EVER!

This may be the most interesting DFS Slate of the Season. With 4 Games already played containing a lot of our the biggest ‘studs’ that we target each week – plus Green Bay, Tennessee, Buffalo and New England all playing in prime time, this slate contains a really significant funnel for “top plays” and loads of value.

I am going to take this by position on my favorite plays. I will also introduce up my primary strategy on attacking the slate too. I am hoping that if you aren’t in your season long Championship game, you can be a Champion in DFS today.

Quarterbacks:

Quarterback today, from an ownership perspective is pretty simple. It’s Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts and then everyone else. So what I am going to focus on here are pivots from the top two dogs… but before I do, let’s talk about Mahomes and Hurts.

Patrick Mahomes gets to plat the Atlanta Falcons who are giving up the MOST fantasy points to Quarterbacks and the 3rd Most to Wide Receivers. I don’t think you need me to discuss the reasons why Mahomes may be the TOP play at Quarterback on the week. What I am going to mention though is that since his ownership puts him as a ‘chalk’ play, consider how you are rostering him. I will say the same thing about Jalen Hurts in a moment. Most players will stack Mahomes with Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce and why not. Today though I will be thinking a little differently and stack Mahomes with Falcons. For instance game stacking with Mahomes and Calvin Ridley or Russell Gage or both… It isn’t that either of those guys won’t also be popular plays – but the correlation that you create with a stack like this can help you create a unique lineup. If I was to stack Mahomes, I do prefer Hill to Kelce today but only slightly.

Jalen Hurts has been a phenom in Philadelphia over the last two weeks alone. Did you know that he is averaging over 10 Fantasy Points on his rushing alone? Now he gets a Cowboys team that is first in the league for yardage allowed BEFORE contact on the ground and is allowing over 160 yards per game on the ground. Hurts will be the second highest owned QB on the slate – but instead of attacking this with a stack of a Philadelphia Wide Receiver or tight end, what about a game stack with Hurts, Myles Sanders and Ceedee Lamb or Amari Cooper or Michael Gallup? Or Hurts with Zeid or Tony Pollard. Just think a little differently. Game stacking led to the winning lineup last week in the Milly Maker … so it isn’t without warrant. If I am going to stack Hurts with anyone it is either Dallas Goedert or I will go back in time and nab Alshon Jeffery. By the way – Desean Jackson is BACK too … what will Hurts do with a field stretcher like that and how will that open up things for the other receivers. There is a lot to like about this Philly offense today.

The bottom line is that Mahomes and Hurts are excellent plays today – but a lot of people know that and the standard stack of Mahomes and Hill or Hurts and Raegor will be extremely common. So by all means, fire these guys up – just think differently when you do it.

So let’s talk Pivots for a minute. To me the perfect Pivot from Patrick Mahomes is Lamar Jackson at 8% ownership playing the New York Giants. The Giants have been better on Defense lately is the narrative. Don’t care. The Ravens need to win out to make the playoffs and Lamar has all of his weapons on the field today. It should be a competitive matchup with the Giants who also need a win to stay atop the NFC East. The reason I think Lamar is a pivot from Mahomes is he is a QB that you do not necessarily need to stack with any player, for him to deliver for you. If I am stacking Lamar with anyone it is Mark Andrews for what it’s worth.

My pick for a Jalen Hurts pivot – hold your breath – Mitchell Trubisky. Trubisky gets to play the boys from DUUUUVALLL who bleed fantasy points. The reason I like Trubisky as a pivot is his rushing floor, not as prolific as it was – but he does give you points with his legs. Now I would stack Trubisky with either Allen Robinson or Darnell Mooney (Mooney especially if Robinson is out) but at under 10% ownership, Trubisky could be a path to a DFS Victory.

Surprising Low Ownership on a few other QBs I want to mention.

Russell Wilson – playing the Rams and the #1 Rated Defense, Wilson and the whole Seahawks offense is coming in severely underowned. However this game could very well decide the NFC West and I don’t know, Russell Wilson – DK Metcalf – Tyler Lockett all under 10% owned seems like a sneaky play, with risk of course.

Baker Mayfield – Baker has been lights out for weeks now and in a matchup with the Jets you would think his ownership would be through the roof. You would be wrong – the entirety of the Browns’ Starting Wide Receiver corp is out today and on the Covid 19 list. That has helped keep Baker around 7% ownership. In fact outside of the Browns Defense, no Brown is even close to 10% ownership. Take advantage! Austin Hooper, Kareem Hunt, Harrison Bryant, David NJoku and a host of value Browns wide receivers are available and they are playing the JETS. Could be the sneakiest of all plays today.

Matt Ryan – People hate playing Matt Ryan and I get it. But the guy is throwing the ball 40 times per game and in a game with the Chiefs … yes the Chiefs secondary has been very good, but volume here wins out. Outside of Calvin Ridley (the second highest owned Wide Receiver) the Falcons are going unowned and I like the play of Ryan and Russell Gage as a pivot. Additionally cheap Ito Smith is now the starting running back and while I wouldn’t touch him in Season Long, in DFS – a cheap underowned starting running back in what should be a high scoring game… give it to me.

MY FAVORITES TODAY

I am going to go through my player pool for you to consider. Where value exists I will highlight and where low ownership exists I will highlight – but with a limited amount of players available because of a limited amount of games, I think hitting this quick will give you the most bang for the buck.

Running Backs:

David Montgomery – been playing lights out lately and now he gets the 30th ranked Jaguars who themselves are down their own starting back – James Robinson. I think Montgomery is in store for a big work load and a big day. He is my #1 Running Back on the slate

Austin Ekeler – with Keenan Allen likely out or limited and playing a shaky Denver defense in California, I think Ekeler will be involved from start to finish and is firmly in play today. His targets alone make him a tremendous play.

Myles Sanders – gets to play a Dallas Defense that as I mentioned is #1 for yards allowed BEFORE contact. Big play Sanders should eat today and since Hurts has been entered in the lineup, he has actually seen his usage INCREASE. Going Underowned today by the way. A Unique Stack is Hurts – Sanders – Lamb. Just sayin’

Washington Running Backs – Antonio Gibson is expected to play but is coming back from Turf Toe… yikes. I don’t mind taking a shot on Gibson but I really like JD McKissic as a flex today. Dwayne Haskins will be under center and Terry McLauren is out. Targets, Targets, Targets for McKissic I predict. Both guys going way underowned for the opportunity against the Panthers allowing 120 on the ground per game.

JK Dobbins – gets to play the Giants Defense who rank 25th against Running Backs especially those who catch passes. I like Dobbins as a flex because I’d expect Gus Edwards to get some carries – but the Ravens like Dobbins on the goal line… keep that in mind.

Kareem Hunt – very simple, Baker will need someone to catch passes. The Jets have been pretty good against the run, but the Cleveland Browns have one of if not the best Offensive Line in football and again all of the starting Wide Receivers are out today. Hunt catches passes. Let’s go. Going a bit underowned today.

Melvin Gordon – No Phillip Lindsey Today. Royce Freeman is banged up. This will be the Gordon show – the Gordon REVENGE matchup against the Chargers and this is a Volume Play. In games where Lindsey did not play Gordon has had 20+ touches. Really underowned today for the opportunity.

Gio Bernard – Two Touchdowns against the Steelers #2 defense against the run last week and now he gets the Texans #32 ranked run defense today. With QB issues in Cincy, I think they lean on Gio today. CHEAP VALUE PLAY with a TON of Upside.

Wide Receiver

Tyreek Hill and Calvin Ridley are the top owned wide receivers and both could be EXCELLENT choices to roster – but who else am I looking at?

Allen Robinson – Darnell Mooney. The Bears play Jacksonville and Jacksonville loves to give up points and big plays to Wide Receivers. Robinson is the Alpha but is questionable. Mooney is the X. If Robinson doesn’t play, Mooney becomes the Alpha and the X. Don’t sleep on these guys … many others are.

Robert Woods – The Seahawks have been getting better on defense, yes. Jamal Adams of the Seahawks I think will be keeping a keen eye on Cooper Kupp and Carlos Dunlap on Jared Goff. Will be a tough matchup – that is why Robert Woods is going severely unowned today. Mr Reliable for the Rams is in play for me today.

Houston Texans Wide Receivers. I should mention Deshaun Watson here, also a solid Pivot from the higher owned QBs – the Bengals though have been actually limiting teams over the last 4 weeks to 20 or under points. However Watson, Cooks, Coutee – upstart Chad Hansen. No one is looking here and in fact David Johnson (after 11 targets last week) has more ownership today than any of the pass catchers. I trust Watson enough to make these wide receivers, all values in their own right, viable for you.

Bengals Wide Receivers – Tee Higgins, AJ Green – yes Ryan Finley at QB is a question mark, but when have we not played Wide Receivers against the Texans this year? Why stop now?

Jamison Crowder – Breshard Permian – the Browns for their solid win streak have been allowing big plays to wide receivers and with the Browns offense severely limited today, you could have a very tired Browns defense playing especially as the game drags on. I like the volume of Crowder and I like the Big Play ability of Perriman.

Russell Gage – great pivot from Calvin Ridley, Gage has stepped up in Julio Jone’s absence and has also scored a touchdown twice recently. Cheap, under owned and in potentially the most competitive game on the slate. Don’t be afraid at look at a cheap Gage here.

CeeDee Lamb – my favorite pairing with Jalen Hurts, he has more targets than any other wide receiver on the Cowboys over the last 3 weeks AND Amari Cooper has struggled against Big Play Slay’s shadow coverage in the past. Let’s go CeeDee…

Tyler Lockett – He has been terrible recently. Doesn’t this just feel like the right time for a Lockett explosion game? We have the DK Metcalf Jalen Ramsey thing going on. We have the Aaron Donald Russell Wilson thing going on. I think Lockett is being largely ignored and I wonder if he will be ignored by the Rams too a little bit. No one is playing Seahawks today – but I am.

Chargers Wide Receivers – Mike Williams is healthy. Keenan Allen (even if he plays) is not. I like Mike Williams. Jaylen Guyton – cheap and most likely to fill the Allen Role should he sit. Tyron Johnson, already a part of this Wide Receiver corp and even cheaper than Guyton. I really don’t mind a Justin Herbert stack with Ekeler and any one of these guys.

Darius Slayton – Danny Dimes will be back under center and Golden Tate will be on the sidelines. With the Giants likely playing from behind, Daniel Jones will take some shots on his big play guy Slayton and if a couple of them are successful, I want to have a piece.

Curtis Samuel – yes the Football Team has a wicked pass rush and have been very good against wide receivers but how Samuel is used makes him a solid value play today that no one is looking at. Lining him out of the backfield and on wheel routes – these help to slow pass rushes. I think he is a solid dart throw and cheap and unowned at that.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce is the alpha today no question. But he is very pricey and very highly owned. Pretty much every other tight end today is a VALUE…

Logan Thomas – 10+ Targets in back to back games and no Terry McLauren today. He could be in line for a monster game against the Panthers.

Browns Tight Ends – Austin Hoopper, Harrison Bryant, David NJoku. Baker needs someone to catch passes and by the way – You can’t even play any of the wide receivers they will have on the field on Draft Kings. Literally – they aren’t there. Cycle Browns TEs in your lineups.

Donald Parham – Hunter Henry is out with Covid and Parham has been named the Starter. He is big. He has two touchdown catches already this season. He was a stud in the XFL. He is also VERY CHEAP – $2,500 on DK.

Mark Andrews – great pivot from Kelce with a great opportunity

Noah Fant – coming off his biggest game of the season and playing the Chargers ranked 20th against TEs

Tyler Higbee – could be a safety valve for Goff today and always a Red Zone threat. The Seahawks have been better lately, but they still aren’t great against pass catchers.

Hayden Hurst – again the Chiefs and Falcons should have a competitive game and Julio Jones will miss it. I will be taking a look at any of the pass catchers in this game and Hurst has been getting more targets recently.

Dalton Schultz – the Eagles stink against Tight Ends and the Cowboys need a win just as bad as the Eagles do. Cheap, underowned, what else can you say here?

Dallas Goedert – mentioned already, a favorite of Jalen Hurts and probably the most likely stacking option with the young QB. But what about a Goedert – Lamb game stack?

DSTs

Honestly I think you can make a case for all of them but I’ll give you one to consider that maybe you will think I am crazy to mention … but

The JETS. $2,000 on DK and the Browns are doing walk throughs as we speak in the stadium parking lot lining tight ends up as Wide Receivers. Yes, really. I’ll have some shots on Gang Green Today.

Good Luck in your Contests!

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