I hope as you are reading this you are in the lead or have won your league championship. I will be honest, I decided to celebrate my own victory a little too much last night so my #Analysis on the Sunday Night Game stayed in my head and not on the page… if you had Davante Adams in you Captain spot though, you should be pretty happy right now …
Tonight’s matchup with the Bills and the Patriots is an interesting one because in truth, it doesn’t really matter for either team in the grand scheme of things. The Bill’s have already locked up their playoff berth with the AFC East Title and the Patriots have already been eliminated from playoff competition. So sure the Bills can win out and have a shot at being a higher seed in the race, however by and large their destiny is playing in January.
Tonight I expect two things. First the Patriots will try and play spoiler and beat the Bills to show there is still some life in the old bones and the Bills will (I hope) run the ball down the throat of the Patriots Defense and carve up the field with play action. So let’s get into it.
My Captain/MVP Picks
I really don’t have a good statistical reason for saying this, but I like Cam Newton at Captain tonight. With his recent performances his ownership should be way down and I do believe most players will rush to have a Bills player at Captain or perhaps a Patriot receiver. But if you read any media that covered Cam after last week’s loss, he really came across as a guy that not only knows he can do better – he is disappointed in himself and his play. Now this may be his last chance on Prime Time to give the world one more dose of CAM and I don’t mind taking a shot.
I also don’t mind looking at Jacobi Meyers at Captain. No other Patriot comes remotely close to the Target Share that Meyers has been seeing (over 33%) and as I expect the Patriots to be throwing to get points on the board, Meyers should be a big part of the effort.
It may sound really crazy but I also don’t mind looking at the Patriot backfield for Captain or MVP tonight. The Bills are ranked in the bottom 3rd of the league against running backs and are giving up over 120 yards. Damien Harris is inactive again and last week Sony Michel did have 74 yards on the ground and with a much better matchup tonight, I could see the Patriots leaning on the run heavily. I will be taking a look at Michel especially if we get news that JJ Taylor if he is also inactive. If Taylor is active though, I don’t mind taking a flier on him either. James White is always much more popular of a play in Showdowns because of his pass catching – so I don’t mind White as a flex – but no one is going to look at Michel or Taylor especially at Captain/MVP and I could see a path to 75 and a score for one of them if the Pats can get their game plan in action.
With Stephon Gilmore placed on IR I believe Stefon Diggs will be a very popular Captain pick – however it is expected he will see a lot of JC Jackson tonight who is in the Top 3 for Interceptions this year and has been solid. Jackson has been beaten on the deep ball a few times this year, so you will need to hope that Diggs can take advantage of some shots. Diggs leads the Bill’s receivers in target share and raw yardage – and is due for a touchdown too. So I don’t mind Diggs at Captain.
But with John Brown again out tonight, I like taking a look at Gabriel Davis as a cheaper option to get a piece of the Bill’s passing attack. Last week David snapped a 3 game Touchdown streak and I am sure he is hungry to get a new streak going – plus with a lot of attention being paid to Diggs, I think Davis may be a sneaky play.
I also like looking at Zack Moss at Captain. Moss has apparently taken the lead back role on this team and as I said in my opening, I am expecting the Bills to run the ball early and often tonight. He also is a threat on the goal line. Again I think Diggs and Beasley will be some of the most popular Captains, so I do not mind shifting to secondary pieces to gain some leverage.
That being said though – it is very likely the optimal lineup tonight will be with Josh Allen at the Captain/MVP. Let’s face it – Allen has been fantastic this season. With the Patriots Defense in a bit of a rut and down key pieces too, he will for all intensive purposes take advantage. It doesn’t help too that as a proud member of Patriot nation that I know that running quarterbacks give the Patriots fits. As much as I like Davis and Moss, I think I will have the most Bills exposure to Allen tonight.
Flex, Flex, Flex it Up
I think if you are stacking the Patriots you need to think about it one of two ways. That they will try and run the game plan that they have all season, in which case stacking Cam + Meyers + Running back will make the most sense OR with nothing on the line they just go for broke, in which case I’m stacking Cam + Meyers + Dameire Byrd + James White. I don’t mind swapping White with N’Keal Harry in some lineups, but Harry has been as bad as Cam has recently and I don’t mind at all if you want to fade him. I also think you may want to consider using the cheap Tight Ends here – not together – but as a way to fill out the lineup taking a shot on Dalton Keene or Devin Asiasi. If the Patriots use this game as a way to see what they have in their young tight ends, the matchup with the Bills may be the best of the remaining two games to do it. I am not saying to load up on these guys, but they are cheap and can make a lot of things work in your lineup.
For the Bills I think stacking Allen with Diggs, Davis and Cole Beasley is going to be the very popular and pricey. So I might recommend using either Diggs or Beasley and rotating Davis with Isaiah McKenzie and then look at including Zack Moss or Devin Singletary in the stack… I think that the running game of the Bills will be a little underowned tonight but I see them having a big role, unless somehow the Bills fall behind I think including them with one of the secondary receivers will give you leverage on the field.
I don’t want to ignore the kickers in this game entirely but I am not as interested in them as Normal. Nick Folk has been very solid for the Patriots for sure, but if I am going to use him it will be in a stack with Cam and a receiver and not as a run back option on Bills stacks. Tyler Bass also has been solid but I am concerned with his field goal opportunities tonight. I could be wrong and this could be a game where it is slow and low scoring, but again I prefer using Bass in a stack with Allen and not as a run back.
I also think you can take a shot on the Bill’s defense if you are multi-entering. You can’t ignore how bad Cam has been recently and certainly both fumbles and interceptions are at play. And because it is 2020 and anything can happen – having at least one lineup with the Patriots Defense is something to think about. I don’t mind using the Patriots D in lineups with Allen either.
Good Luck with your Contests!