Yesterdays slate of games seemed to leave something left in the tank. The Bills and Colts did not disappoint and in a way neither did the Seahawks and Rams which I predicted to be the lowest scoring of the bunch – but who could have seen Russell Wilson being eliminated at the start of the season right? Good on the Rams – good luck, the hill will be steeper next time you are on the field.
Today we have the main events though – at least in my opinion. Lamar vs Henry. Brees vs Mack. Baker Mayfield vs The World… it’s time for business to pick up. By hook or by crook I cashed yesterday – even if it was a ‘push’ but it makes me feel a little lucky. Let’s talk game by game as I think there is as much a reason to play the all day slate as there is to try your hand at some showdowns today too.
Ravens vs Titans
I love a good rematch with hurt feelings and fear festering for a full year – don’t you? It feels like a WWE Wrestlemania build in a way. Lamar Jackson is coming into this game on a hot streak yes but also the memory of having his MVP Season end at the hands of Henry and Co. I love a guy with a chip on his shoulder. There also is other reasons to like Lamar, none of which are that he is the highest priced quarterback as well as the highest owned quarterback on the slate (30%). 4 out or 5 of Jackson’s last games he has scored 25 or more fantasy points. Additionally during that span he has run for 80 or more yards, 4 times. And he has thrown for 2 or more touchdowns 4 out of the last 5 as well. He is on a hot streak. However, when these two teams met earlier this season the Titans held Lamar to under 200 yards passing, 1 touchdown and 51 rushing yards. So there is some risk. However the reason I like Lamar is his options for stacking. Marquise Brown has been awesome in the back half of the year and at only $5,400 on DK he represents excellent value. He is a bit Chalky at 29% ownership but I do think a lot of what that has to do with is the Jackson-Brown stack being very popular. But you aren’t running on empty after Jackson. (see what I did there? Jackson – Brown, running on empty haha). Lamar gets shifty Willie Snead back today or at least it is trending in that direction. Don’t forget about Dez Bryant too he clearly has made strides in this offense over the last two weeks. Both Snead and Bryant are cheap and 1% owned. Additionally Miles Boykin – 3 Touchdowns in his last 5 games. Cheap, no one is going to play Miles Boykin. But if you look at Boykin or Dez as a cheap flex to give a little differentiation on the chalkier Jackson – Brown stack, it makes some sense. Of course there is always “Mean” Mark Andrews the Tight End. Earlier this season Andrews torched the Titans going 5 for 96 and 1. Andrews will be chalky but a move many don’t make is Jackson-Hollywood-Andrews as the belief is the two eat into each other, but I don’t buy the narrative. In fact if you look at their game logs all season both men are seeing roughly the same amount of targets per game.
By the way – Draft Kings planted a little bit of an easter egg to try and fool players today. You might look at Ravens WR Devin Duvernay at a very cheap price and open him up and read the “latest news”. I had to look twice before saying – oh you almost got me Draft Kings… see if you can pick up on that.
The Ravens running back situation has become a lot less murky lately. It’s JK Dobbins, then Gus Edwards and a sprinkle of Justice Hill. Mark Ingram maybe for a snap or two. So if you are looking at the hierarchy, you have to like JK Dobbins today. He has been averaging 13 touches per games since week 8 and he gets a smash matchup against the Titans ranked 28th against running backs. With both Derek Henry and Alvin Kamara on this slate, ownership on Dobbins is way lower than I thought it would. Dobbins is also coming off a season high 160 yard and 2 score game and will figure heavily into this game plan. I also like Gus Edwards today as a cheap flier. It is tough to predict his role, but if the Ravens are ahead or in natural game script they have no problem going to Gus the Bus for the tough yards. He is a cheap and under owned dart throw. The Ravens make an EXCELLENT Showdown Stack by the way – should you be playing a Showdown tournament.
So what to do if you are the Baltimore Ravens defense? Sell out to stop Derek Henry who already put 133 Yards and a touchdown on you earlier this season and force Ryan Tannehill to beat you? Or do you let Henry be Henry and focus on turnovers and stops playing tough against the pass catchers. The thing is you can’t do both because the last time these two teams played – the Ravens lost. I think the thing about Derek Henry is you just have to play him. Only 4 times this season has Henry not seen 25 or more touches. Additionally, they are at home and he is coming off a record 2,000 yard regular season achievement. Can you slow Derek Henry? Sure. Can you stop Derek Henry? No. At close to 50% ownership, Henry is chalky but I will tell you – I have no problem stacking Henry WITH Ryan Tannehill and one of his pass catchers. The pass catcher I am keying in on is Corey Davis by the way. TOO CHEAP on Draft Kings, $4,800??? He will be chalky but that price tag just makes things work so well…
But what that really opens up is an under owned AJ Brown coming in about 15% less owned than Davis. The targets have been there for Brown all season – averaging 8.5 per game – but the production has been hit or miss. Corey Davis by the way did not play in that game against the Ravens earlier this season, so another reason why Davis will be as popular as he is (but mainly it is the price tag) – but in a big game scenario and an ownership discount, I think AJ Brown needs to be a priority too in your lineups especially if you are multi-entering. I think a lot of people will be on Jonuu Smith today as a pivot from Andrews. He did have a touchdown the last time these two teams met. But I think the ever present Anthony Firsker is even more interesting. Since Adam Humphries hasn’t been able to play, Firsker has been that underneath valve for Tannehill. He is super cheap and no one plays Anthony Firsker. I do not mind at all punting Tight End today with him.
Which brings us to Ryan Tannehill. I think he is my favorite tournament QB today. The reason is – wait for it – his rushing. Over the last 3 weeks Ryan Tannehill has rushed for 5 Touchdowns. Yes, Tannehill. It is just a testament to his will to win and today with the season on the line and playoff dreams in front of him – I like a grinder and that is what Tannehill is. Last time these two teams played he had 22.9 Fantasy Points with 259 yards passing, 2 Touchdowns and an Interception. He also ran for 35 yards. Now you take that exact stat line and add a rushing score to it and suddenly he’s at 27 Fantasy Points. If he doesn’t throw the INT, he is at 30 Fantasy Points. Literally coming in at ⅓ the ownership of Jackson he is the PERFECT pivot play off of the Lamar Jackson chalk today.
Next Up – Saints and Bears
Play a showdown or two on Titans Ravens in the meantime! Good luck if you do!