You can reach me on Twitter @DelRayBoston
Wow what a Week 1 of the NFL Season! It as exciting, high scoring, surprising … everything you want in an Opening Weekend! It also was paced by a rocketbuster of a Thursday Night Football Game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys! Well here we are in Week 2 and tonight’s Thursday Night Football Game … well, I have my doubts we’ll be seeing another shootout to say the least.
As always my name is Sean Weymouth and I’m thrilled to be back writing DFS thoughts and strategy for Real Deal Fantasy HQ! Hopefully you checked out our Week 1 DFS Article this past weekend or our Sunday Night and Monday Night football articles! We had a lot of HITS and not many misses, so make sure you are checking the content each week of the season!
Maybe you have also caught myself and @matechlee “Matech like Radish” Lee on YouTube with our new weekly DFS shows! We just dropped a Week 2 DFS Values show TODAY! You can check it out here: https://youtu.be/vXiKElTcBm0
OK on to tonight’s Thursday Night Football matchup between the New York Giants and Washington Football Team. Before I give my team by team breakdown, I want to mention something that jumped out to me today when I opened up a contest. It will be VERY tough to get all the players that you “want” in this game into one lineup. Let’s face it, there are very few “studs” on either side of this game and (at least for me) even less key players that you can really trust to produce enough raw fantasy points to take down a tournament. And of those ‘slim pickens’ both Draft Kings & FanDuel have priced those guys UP! What I think this will result in is a LOT of similiar lineups in contests and so what I am hoping I can do for you is to give you some ideas on how to be just different enough to seperate your lineups from the competition! It’s all about CASHING … so let’s begin!
The Washington Football Team
For what it’s worth, the WFT is favored tonight by 3.5. So to start, I think a lot of lineups will be stacked with WFT Players. Specifically Terry McLaurin ($13,500 Captain, $9,000 Flex, $12,000 FD), Antonio Gibson ($14,000 Captain, $9,600 Flex, $12,500 FD), Logan Thomas ($11,100 Captain, $7,400 Flex, $10,000 FD) and backup turned starting Quarterback Taylor Heinicke ($15,300 Captain, $10,200 Flex, $14,500 FD). I don’t want to say that I don’t like the WFT tonight, I do – but I think you are going to run into some issues if you are trying to stack all 4 of them together. For instance on DK, if you just add all four into your lineup as flex plays, you are left with a remaining player salary of $6,900 (which I am sure many players will be faced with) I can already see how the rest of a build like that will go … final flex spot, uber cheap dart throw and an $8,000 Kicker captain.
My biggest concern with stacking all four together is I am just not convinced all four of them will “get there” for you. I think the most popular of the 4 will be Antonio Gibson. Everyone will see that the Giants are ranked 25th against the run and also think – well with the back up Quarterback in, they will probably lean on the run. Add in the fact that the Giants gave up a whopping 165 yards on the ground last week and I see a path for Antonio Gibson to be the chalkiest (most popular) play on the slate. In cash games I think he is an absolute lock after his clear domination of the snaps and targets in week 1. But if he is uber chalk, in tournaments I think I will be beginning my build with the Pass Catchers, Mclaurin and Thomas and pairing them with Heinicke. I think less players will go this route and of these top 4 WFT Players – I find Logan Thomas most interesting at Captain on DK. I just find his price tag of $11,100 odd and I think I can build around that.
I think many players will think by rostering Taylor Heinicke, they will be different in tournaments tonight. You know – he’s a backup, no one is gonna play him. I can hear it now. Now I am not saying Heinicke is a bad play, in fact he has looked pretty good! We saw him at the tail end of last year and last week he stepped up admirably. I will have plenty of Heinicke in my lineups, sure. I just don’t know if you will NEED him as you may some other pieces like Gibson. If his passing volume is again low as the whole team’s was last week, he hasn’t shown he offers a ton with his legs – I just don’t know if his salay will equatye his fantasy point production. Especially if he is very chalky tonight, I will likely have more lineups without Heinicke than I will with him.
I also believe that the Washington Defense ($8,400 Captain, $5,600 Flex) will also be very popular tonight. I can understand why. First they have the overall most taleneted Defensive Lines in Football and last week against the Broncos the Giant’s Run Game was a mess and Daniel Jones has never been a quarterback I feared playing a defense against. However, last week – for all their hype – the WFT D allowed 424 Total Yards to the Chargers and while I do not think the Giants come close to that total tonight, I also am a lot less likely to roster the WFT Defense. I am just not convinced of their dominance and plus if they match their Week 1 total of 7 points (12.5 if they were a Captain), I believe there are cheaper dart throws that you can take which will score the same or more and cost you less…
The two dart throws I will mention here are WRs Dynami Brown ($2,100 Captain, $1,400 Flex, $5,500 FD) and Adam Humphries ($7,200 Captain, $4,800 Flex, $6,500 FD). It may not have shown it in Week 1 but rookie Brown is the #2 Reciever on this team behind Scary Terry… meanwhile Humprhries caught only one ball in Week 1 on 1 target. SO WHAT! First Fitzpatrick goes down and then back up Heinicke comes in. The WFT hung one of the lowest total passing attempts on the week – should that have been a surprise? NO! Now with at least one practice and a walk through for Heinicke with his recievers, I could see both of these guys seeing an uptick. The Giants secondary is pretty good and if they are trying to limit the McLaurin damage, it could open up lanes for Brown on the outside or Humphries in the slot… if you are multi entering, I’d take some shots here.
And lastly from the anything could happen side of things, you of course have RB JD McKissic ($3,300 Captain, $2,200 Flex, $7,000 FD) and WR5 Cam Sims ($1,500 Captain, $1,000 Flex, $6,000 FD). It did appear that the passing down role McKissic owned last season, has evaporated this season after Antonio Gibson not only dominated the touches but also the targets in Week 1 – BUT we don’t know if things were gameplanned that way. Could we see McKissic back in a 3rd down role tonight? If you are multi-entering tonight, you’d be wise to have at least 1 lineup with McKissic in it. Cam Sims for me falls into the ‘right place, right time’ category. Could he nab a long ball or even a redzone look if the team goes five wide? Sure … but doubtful. I think they keep things as conservative as they can for Heinicke. But Sims is a deep dart throw, if you are multi-entering. But only on DK for me – there is no way I’m paying 6K for Cam Sims on Fan Duel.
The NY Giants
It’s not that I think the Giants are going to go unowned tonight, but I do think they will not be as popular as the WFT… but for me, they are the WAY more interesting team to try and figure out! Before I start though, I want to mention that the Giants have a real issue with their Offensive Line … they STINK! So there is a real chance that everything I am about to write goes to hell. However this is Daily Fantasy, you have to take some chances. So here are a whole bunch of chances in blue uniforms for you:
Of the Giants, I think the natural most popular play tonight will be WR Sterling Shepard ($12,000 Captain, $8,000 Flex, $11,500 FD) after a MONSTER performance in Week 1 7 for 113 and score. He clearly was Daniel Jones‘ ($15,600 Captain, $10,400 Flex, $15,000) favorite target. I think he has a real chance he could repeat. The Broncos hurried Jones and he needed to get the ball out fast. With a running game that could not get off the ground (no pun intended) and no TE Evan Engram, Shepard was the clear beneficiary. Now they face a much more potent pass rush in Washington and I can easily see Jones looking for Shepard early and often. Shepard would be my Giants Cash Game Lock.
However, I was actually encouraged by Kenny Golladay ($12,300 Captain, $8,000 Flex, $10,500 FD) last week – 6 targets, 4 catches, 64 yards in his first real action in over a year? I think we will slowly see Golladay emerge as the #1 Wide Reciever in this offense and in a Primetime Game against an NFC rival, could this be a break out? I like the Jones-Golladay pairing in Tournaments a lot to be different.
Then there is the biggest question mark of them all on this team. Saquon Barkley ($15,000 Captain, $10,000 Flex, $14,000 FD). He’s been deemed unplayable this week by many analysts. He himself may not actually play as he currently carries a Q tag. But I don’t know why, I am gravitating to him in my builds. It’s not that I thought the Chargers exposed a hole in this defense for a running game to emerge AND it’s also not that I even think he will remotely recieve anywhere close to his pre-injury snap counts … it’s that I love how little ownership he is seeing and in DFS always remember “no riskit no biscuit”. In all honesty I think he has two things going for him. #1 I think the Giants know that if they can establish a running game in some way, they can help to minimize the Washingto Pass Rush. Also the Giants need to win this game just as much the WFT – if Barkley can play, he is gonna PLAY when he is in the game. I think if they have multiple trips to the goal line, Barkley will have multiple opportunities at a Touchdown and I love that upside especially at low ownership. I even have a lineup with Barkley at Captain… THIS IS A RISKY PLAY, and not for the faint of heart – I just have a feeling and maybe Saquon surprises us tonight if he plays).
Where to put Darius Slayton ($9,900 Captain, $6,600 Flex, $9,000 FD) here. In Week 1 he ended with a similar line to Golladay 7 Targets for 65 yards … the difference is Slayton got to that yardage total with 1 less catch and I think that is what he is in this offense – the X, the Deep Ball Threat. I’ll have some shares of Slayton in my lineups. I prefer a double stack with Slayton and Shepard with Jones than a Golladay-Shepard-Jones, I just think right now Slayton and Golladay are playing too similiar of a role, but for speed and big play ability I don’t think Slayton should be ignored tonight. 2 for 75 yards and a score is all you really need here and he does have the talent to get that done.
And of course we have talked about him a bunch here but Daniel Jones is actually another preferred play for me tonight. I think many DFSers will be focusing on Heinicke the backup assuming that will be a contrarian play, but I think the opposite – paying all the way up for Jones will be the more contrartian approach. Jones put together a nice Week 1 for DFS purposes – 267 Passing Yards and a Passing TD, 27 Rushing Yards and a Rushing TD… I’d take that tonight for a lower owned Jones. Plus he just gives you more variance in stacking. With 3 relevant recievers available, I just think Jones can help you build a more unique lineup. Now this could go very poorly and end up with Jones on his back more than standing up, due to the pass rush – but I’ll take my chances on Danny Dimes in Prime Time.
There are a few dart throws to mention for the G Men. First rookie Kadarius Toney ($2,700 Captain, $1,800 Flex, $6,500 FD) who did very little in week 1 and could have a hard time finding the field in week 2 with Shepard, Golladay and Slayton all seeing targets … but he makes for a great dart throw and I always like playing Rookies in primetime for some reason. I probably like Dynami Brown a bit more on the other side of the ball, but I’ll have a couple shares of Toney tonight on DK. He is too cheap to fully ignore. You also hae longtime Viking Big Kyle Rudolph ($4,800 Captain, $3,200 Flex, $7,000 FD) who with Evan Engram still sidelined should be in line as the Top Pass Catching TE for the Giants. Rudolph saw very little in Week 1, but he’s always been a player with a nose for the endzone and we could see Jones look his way tonight as an outlet for against the pass rush. I should also mention Devontae Booker ($4,200 Captain, $2,800 Flex, $7,500 FD) especially if Barkley is ruled out, I think Booker should be on your radar. Even if Barkley plays I think you will see afair amount of Booker on the field. And if he is on the field and the Giants areon the goal line, I could see him nabbing a score. These 3 are dart throws tonight and only on DK for me. Again, I can’t pay the FanDuel prices for them.
Should Heinicke and the WFT offense be as popular as I believe they will be, the ultimate HEDGE on DK tonight is the Giants Defense ($6,300 Captain, $4,200 Flex). The Giants defense isn’t as bad as you may think and they are sneaky decent in the secondary. I think they will see some ownership but not even as close as the WFT Defense or even Taylor Heinicke will. I actually really like a stack with the Giants D, Daniel Jones and 2 of his pass catchers. If Saquon plays, I don’t mind including him in that stack either.
I will have at least 1 lineup with both defenses and the kickers and a few dart throws around them. This could have the makings of a low scoring game driven by the defenses, so I will want to have one lineup like that to take advantage with. Because of that I should mention – don’t be scared to leave some money on the table at the end of your builds. In a game like this, leaving $1,000 or more on the table could be a big time difference maker in tournaments. Trust me on that.
I also always like to include Kickers in some lineups and in the above example I’d include both with the defense. We have Graham Gano ($5,400 Captain, $3,600 Flex, $8,500 FD) for the Giants and Dustin Hopkins ($5,700 Captain, $3,800 Flex, $9,500 FD) going tonight. In a game like this, Kickers Can Matter! Don’t be afraid to use them as cheap Flex plays in some lineups tonight.
My Favorite Captain/MVP Picks
Saquon Barkley (if he plays)
GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS!