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Well the DFS Gods didn’t shine to favorably on me in Week 2! If it wasn’t for a fantastic high scoring affair on Sunday Night Football, I wouldn’t have seen green all weekend! So that brings me to Monday Night Football tonight! The drama coming into this game is centered on the Packer’s Offense and if Aaron Rogers and Company can bounce back after a dismal showing in Week 1. Good news for the Packers, they get to face the Detroit Lions who have regularly been a beat stick for the Green Machine… so tonight I would expect the Packers to be overwhelmingly popular in DFS and the Lions to be a source of contrarian leverage. Whether the game plays out in the manner that the public thinks it will is irrelevant when you are building a DFS lineup. So for the sake of delivering you the best DFS strategy and picks each and every week, I’ll be starting this article off with the underdogs – the Detroit Lions.
But before I do I want to talk about one of the craziest, most lopsided Vegas lines I have seen recently. Tonight the Packers come in as a whopping -11.5 point favorites. What makes this more interesting however is the game itself has a 48.5 Money Line or Point Total. When I see totals like this, what I see is a game that is a bit more competitive than meets the eye. I read the line and the points that Vegas is setting as a game where the Packers are in control by as many as 2 touchdowns at any time – but the Lions will also put up points potentially coming as close as a touchdown and a field goal from the lead, as the game progresses. I think I am safe in assuming that book makers aren’t sold on the Green Bay defense and that they see the Lions as underdogs with some upside. So while the smart money and most of the DFS community will be banking on a Packers victory by a wide margin, the smart DFS players will not ignore the positives that the Lions can bring to the table in their lineups.
The Detroit Lions
I am going to give you three Lions that I think you need to be thinking about when building a lineup tonight. DeAndre Swift ($12,600 Captain, $8,400 Flex, $12,000 FD), Jamaal Williams ($10,800 Captain, $7,200 Flex, $10,500 FD) and TJ Hockenson ($14,400 Captain, $9,600 Flex, $11,000 FD). In week 1 these three players accounted for a whopping 48% of QB Jared Goff’s passing attempts. Additionally Swift and Williams saw the same amount of Rushing attempts at 8 each. So my two takeaway here, as it pertains to DFS, is that both Swift and Williams need to be rostered and I have zero problem with rostering them together either. The Packers are coming into tonight ranked 26th against running backs, allowing 171 Yards on the ground on average, so I think both will be heavily involved in the game plan tonight. If I am choosing between the pair, I slightly lean Williams. Swift is listed as Questionable tonight and while he is expected to suit up and play the Lions may want to limit his potential for a set back by giving Williams more opportunities. Additionally, (barring news coming out of Swift being limited or OUT) I think Swift will be the more popular play of the two in tournaments – so again since both players are so evenly split in offensive involvement, I have a slight lean on Williams. Overall though, I think both should be in your player pool tonight.
Additionally Hockenson needs to be rostered too, but I think he will easily be the most rostered Lion for DFS Players. In Week 1 he took 10 Targets for 97 yards and a touchdown. Here in Week 2 he gets to face a Packers team ranked 24th against Tight Ends. It is quite possible that between Hockenson and the two running backs, if you stack them together, you will have nearly all of the Lions offensive production. I also think this 3 man stack will provide some leverage as I think most people will go with Hockenson and one or the other running back, with most using Swift. Just adding Williams and making it a 3 man could be a contrarian approach.
So let’s talk about Jared Goff ($15,000 Captain, $10,000 Flex, $14,500 FD). Goff threw A LOT in week 1. He had 57 Passing Attempts, completed 67% of them for 398 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. I have little doubt that Goff will be throwing a lot tonight as it is expected the Lions will be playing from behind – but I am not as high on him as those numbers may make you think I should be. It is his price tags that give me pause. If I am looking to stack the big 3, adding Goff in at even $10,000 leaves me little in the bank to bring back with most of the Packers elites. So where I am mainly going to be using Goff tonight is in stacks that include either Hockenson, Swift or Williams with a Lions Wide Receiver. Tyrell Williams has been ruled out tonight with a concussion which leaves the Lions to trot out the “elite” squad of Kalif Raymond ($6,600 Captain, $4,400 Flex, $8,000 FD), Quintez Cephus ($5,700 Captain, $3,800 Flex, $7,500 FD and Aman-Ra St Brown ($3,800 Captain, $2,400 Flex, $7,500 FD) as your starting 3 wide outs. The standout to me in this group is Kalif Raymond who not only had the most air yardage of the 3 in Week 1 but the Lions also manufactured a rushing attempt for, picking up 9 yards in the process. I think he will be the defacto #1 receiver in Ty Williams absence and if Deandre Swift is limited or OUT, I could see the Lions giving Raymond a handful of snaps at RB too. After Raymond, I think you can flip a coin between Cephus and St Brown who both saw targets in Week 1 but did little with them – Cephus 2 Catches for 20 yards and St Brown 3 catches for 12 yards. What I like about these guys though is their price tags, which can really help to open your roster up and if any of them have a 55 yards + 1 TD game, they won’t kill your lineup either. I’ll have at least one 4 man Lions stack with Swift or Williams, Goff, Hockenson and Raymond.
A few more Lions that I would consider Dart Throws if you are mass multi-entering are WRs Trinity Benson ($1,500 Captain, $1,000 Flex, $6,000 FD and KahDerel Hodge ($300 Captain, $200 Flex, $5,000 FD), TE Darren Fells ($2,100 Captain, $1,400 Flex, $5,500 FD) and RB Jason Cabinda ($300 Captain, $200 Flex, $5,000 FD). With Ty Williams sitting, the WR Depth Chart Moves Up 1 and Benson should be slotted in as the Wide Receiver 4. Additionally if Swift sits, Cabinda will immediately be the RB 2 behind Jamaal Williams. Both Benson and Cabinda saw 1 target apiece in Week 1, so they are already up to speed on the playbook, it would seem. Darren Fells is the TE2 of the team and in 12 man personnel formations he’ll be on the field opposite Hockenson. He caught a ball in Week 1 and if the Packers sell out to slow Hockenson down, Fells could have a slightly bigger role in this game. The real wild card off the wall dart throw here is KahDerel Hodge who the Lions acquired in the off-season. Hodge was a healthy scratch in Week 1 but again with Williams out, the WR Depth Chart moves up 1. If he is activated for this game, Hodge can make for a very sneaky dart throw if you are multi-entering as he showed some burst and agility in the limited time we saw him in action in Cleveland last season.
If I am right I think the most popular Lion on the night not named Swift, Williams and Hockenson will be kicker Austin Siebert ($5,400 Captain, $3,600 Flex, $8,500 FD). Kickers are for the most part DK only plays for me as I always feel they are overpriced on FanDuel – but tonight I think Siebert will be busy as the Lions will be looking to get points on the board in any way possible and I see a lot of drives stalling in the red zone as well. Another reason why I think he will be popular because at only $3,600 as a Flex, I think a lot of players will stack 5 Packers and finish with the cheap Detroit Kicker in the flex.
And the ultimate contrarian play will be the Lions Defense who I don’t think anyone will play – but if we see Green Bay self destruct again tonight, you may be thanking me later for recommending (if you are mass multi-entering) to have at least 1 lineup with the Lions D in it.
The Green Bay Packers
So here’s the thing. You can probably guess without me typing another word who the two most rostered players will be in tonights tournaments. Also the highest owned stack of the night. Two guesses, first one doesn’t count. Ok enough of the dad jokes, it’s Aaron Rogers ($17,100 Captain, $11,400 Flex, $16,000 FD) and Davante Adams ($17,700 Captain, $11,800 Flex, $15,000 FD). In the case of Rogers, first is the notorious “Rogers Chip on the Shoulder” rule that if you have read any of my articles before, you know, I love to take advantage of. However some recent stats that also prove the point of Rogers being a priority tonight? In 2020 Rogers played the Lions twice completing 67% of the 66 Passes he threw, for a total of 530 passing yards, 5 Touchdowns and no interceptions. His second meeting with them, late in the season he was incredibly efficient and scored a nice 30.90 fantasy points. Adam’s on the other hand was injured in Week 2 2020 against the Lions and was held out for a number of weeks of the season. So we look at the second time the Packers played the Lions last year for reasons to believe he is indeed a Lion Tamer. 7 Catches on 10 Targets for 115 Yards and a Touchdown. Good for 19 Fantasy Points if you round up. I fully expect both of these guys to exceed those 2020 numbers, tonight. The Lions have done little to upgrade their secondary or to really generate a ton of pressure up front either. You don’t need me to tell you to play Rogers and Adams – but they will be uber chalk tonight so try and get different with the rest of your lineups and stay above the field.
One way to get different is to stack Rogers with Adams and Aaron Jones ($15,600 Captain, $10,400 Flex, $12,500) too. I actually love the nature of a Rogers-Jones-Adams stack as pricey as it may be. Week 2 against Detroit Jones went nuts, pacing the offense with 18 for 168 and 2 scores on the ground and 4 for 50 and a score through the air. In week 14 last year Jones came back down to earth with no touchdowns and going 15 for 69 on the ground and 2 for 67 through the air. After last week’s disaster, I personally am leaning more on what Jones did in Week 2 last year when I consider his opportunity tonight. And now that Jamaal Williams is on the opposition, I think you can also take a shot on AJ Dillon ($4,500 Captain, $3,000 Flex, $7,000 FD) if you are multi-entering. Dillon didn’t do much in Week 1 but none of the Packers did. But if he slides into the change of pace role that Williams had been for most of Aaron Jones’ career, Dillon could be looking at (on average based on Williams’ 2020) 8.5 Rushing Attempts per game and 4 targets too! Have you seen the Quads on this man? 8 Rushes and 4 Targets could well be enough for him to have an impact on this game and I think he makes for a low owned value play with some upside tonight. For what it’s worth, the Lions come into tonight having allowed over 100 yards on the ground to San Francisco’s Rookie Elijah Mitchell and Second Year Man JayMichael Hasty who each ahead a rushing scores. Hmm, what year is AJ Dillon in his NFL Career?
I’d also make sure you have Green Bay Tight Ends on your radar tonight. Of course Robert “Bobby” Tonyon ($9,600 Captain, $6,400 Flex, $10,000 FD) should be a primary stacking component. As Tonyon became more of a weapon in the offense as the season went on last year, his Week 14 game against these Lions wasn’t a TON to write home about but certainly serviceable – he caught all 5 balls thrown his way for 36 yards and a score – but it’s the “and a score” that I want to emphasize here because that is where Aaron Rogers seems to feed Tonyon the most, in scoring opportunities. Tonyon had a touchdown in 6 out of the last 7 games of the season last year and I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets one tonight. I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets two actually. Play some Robert Tonyon tonight. I’d also like to suggest that if you are mass multi-entering, I think you can take a dart throw on at least one lineup on Mercedes “The Big Man” Lewis ($1,200 Captain, $800 Flex, $5,500 FD). Lewis was always good for a couple touchdowns per year, mainly on red zone gimmick plays and disguised routes – but it was really encouraging to see Rogers target him in the open field in Week 1 and perhaps that continues here. Lewis is a blocking tight end to the extreme, but seeing that he will be on the field for close to 75% of snaps, he may get a few more looks. PS the quotation nicknames I gave these guys came from Aaron Rogers himself in post game interviews last season where one of them scored. I bring this up because Rogers clearly likes his two big Tight Ends … so should you.
So now it comes to the Green Bay Packers weekly guessing game. That game is which wide receiver will step up behind Devonte Adams? (Insert 70’s Game Show Music Here). In Week 1 Marquez Valdez Scantling ($8,400 Captain, $5,600 Flex, $8,000 FD) saw some deep throws, but just like Rogers in Week 1 – they were a little off. That being said he did see an eye opening 8 targets from Rogers which clearly puts him in the #2 Receiver seat on this team in my opinion. The issue I have with MVS is that if Rogers is on like Donkey Kong, I don’t know if he will even need to be throwing the deep ball anywhere else but to Adams. So I’m not as high on MVS, however I do believe he will be popular in 3 man stacks with Rogers and Adams.
This brings me to the recently returned to the team wild card in Randall Cobb ($3,000 Captain, $2,000 Flex, $6,500 FD). Cobb is a slot receiver by trade and a past favorite target for Rogers too. I could see Cobb get some usage tonight as I think Rogers may want to rebuild his report with his old friend. I also could see Cobb getting into the end zone tonight via a short underneath throw. Also don’t forget about Alan Lazard ($7,200 Captain, $4,800 Flex, $8,500 FD) who last year, especially when Adams was out, DID step up and rather famously gained Roger’s trust. Lazard saw 4 targets in Week 1. I’ll also mention Malik Taylor ($900 Captain, $600 Flex, $5,500 FD) who looks to be Wide Receiver 5 in this offense but also saw 3 targets in Week 1, his highest target total to date. Lastly we also saw Amari Rogers ($600 Captain, $400 Flex, $6,000 FD) catch his only target in week 1, but it went for 19 Yards – so when the Packers go 5 wide, you can bet both Taylor and Amari Rogers will see some field time and maybe their 1 target ends up in the end zone? Of this bunch I think my favorite here is Cobb but could Lazard, Taylor or Amari Rogers get a right place right time touchdown catch? Well we saw it happen with Devin Douvernay last night, so as they say – anything can happen.
I think kicker Mason Crosby ($6,000 Captain, $4,000 Flex, $9,000 FD) will go very low owned tonight. With the overwhelming game theory being the Packers scoring at will, I think most players will assume he won’t have many field goal attempts but I am on the theory that while the Packers do score – so do the Lions – and because of that I think if the Packers stall in the redzone at all, Crosby could be in line for a nice game and at low ownership even 10 – 12 fantasy points from Crosby can make a difference. I even bet Crosby outscores MVS tonight … and I love the DK Flex Price.
I do think that the Packers Defense ($7,500 Captain, $5,000 Flex) will be a popular play on DK tonight. Could Jared Goff get sacked? Surely. Could he throw a Pick 6 or multiple interceptions? Surely? Could the Detroit Lions fumble? Yep. You can see why the Packers Defense will be popular. But going back to the beginning of this article, with the Packers favored heavily and a high point total, I’m just not really looking to play either defense in this game. Especially these two, which did less to inspire me than I thought possible in Week 1.
MY FAVORITE CAPTAINS/MVPS
GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS!