Week 3 Thursday Night Football DFS Strategy & Targets – Panthers Texans – Draft Kings FanDuel – Real Deal Fantasy HQ

You can find me on Twitter @delrayboston

Can I say I hate tonight’s Showdown (DK) & Single Game (FD) Slate? Is that acceptable? Cause I do. Allow me to explain.

Both the Panthers and the Texans are so concentrated in their fantasy relevant offensive production that lineups should be relatively easy to build. BUT if you are building a lineup to win and not just place, you know you can’t just plug the studs in – everyone will be doing that” and you need to be different, to be just contrarian enough, with a piece of your lineup (and a bit lucky) to separate yourself.

The problem is that both sites have priced those 4 or 5 guys who make up so much of both offenses, so so much higher than everyone else that when you plug even 2 of the “main” pieces that you are forced to fill 3 or more slots in the lineup to legitimate dart throws. Additionally you can also pretty much figure out which of these “dart throws” most people will gravitate to just because of the remaining salary left over one Le the studs are selected.

So I hate this slate because a). There will be so so so many of the same lineups in tournaments which means a lot of people splitting winnings and b). There will be so much more reliance on luck that strategy and leverage practically are irrelevant.

So the best strategy I can suggest tonight, probably the best way to gain leverage, the best advice I can give – leave money on the table. If you build your lineup and you have $1,000 in salary left- leave it! You have no idea how many DFS players won’t and will try and figure out how to use every penny of the salary cap and in turn will plug in players that everyone else trying to use every penny will be playing. Be different, leave money on the table. $500 ok, $900 better, $1,000 great… you get the point.

My other best advice – play Christian McCaffrey. I don’t see any way you will cash by trying to be cute and fade him. He’s my favorite play at Captain and MVP and it’s not even close. Everyone will play him – eat the chalk. I think the most popular stack will be McCaffrey and Sam Darnold. I don’t mind it but here’s an idea – don’t do it. Keep Sam in lineups with his non McCaffrey pass catchers. My sneaky, no one will play stack? Stack McCaffrey with his backup Chubba Hubbard. Think about it, there is a real chance the Panthers are up by more than a touchdown going into the 4th Quarter – maybe earlier – there is a real chance that Hubbard sees the field and could he fall in the end zone too? Just sayin’ there aren’t too many ways to get different tonight.

Obviously Sam Darnold could be a fine play tonight but salary wise you’ll find it tough to build with McCaffrey and Sammy in the lineups together, people will try and figure it out though so keep that in mind. Outside of McCaffrey, I think the other “priority” Panther here is DJ Moore. 8 or more Targets 2 straight weeks, 79 or more yards 2 straight weeks, touchdown in Week 2. He’s the clear number one. The number 2 of course is Robbie Anderson – but, the difference in Anderson’s fantasy days in Week 1 or Week 2 is whether or not he caught the deep ball. The question is – will the Panthers need the Deep Ball tonight? On the off chance it happens I don’t mind Anderson in stacks with Moore and Darnold but he’s just not the priority for me to try and jam in with McCaffrey, Darnold and Moore.

I think the Panthers Defense will be extremely popular. One of the only expected “chalk” plays that DK didn’t price up… I think they are a fine play but I think they will mostly be the most common stacking piece (behind Darnold) with McCaffrey. So if you are playing the Panthers D, a different way to attack them if you dare, is to play Alec Erkison with them who is expected to be the punt returner. I mention this because I think there will be way more punts for the Panthers to return than kickoffs and you get double points if Erickson runs the punt back. What do you think the ST in DST means anyway.

You are playing Brandin Cooks if you are running back a Panthers stack or if you are brave enough to stack the Texans. It’s not even close to consider anyone else as the #1 weapon for the Texans. Going deeper on the roster you may assume will make you different but it likely will not. Try and put McCAffrey, Darnold, Moore and Cooks in one lineup and see where you end up? Yup everyone else ended up there too. So if you want to be different and have Texas exposure, be brave – give Davis Mills a shot. Yup I said it. Two reasons why I don’t think Mills will be popular. First, price – both sites suddenly priced him as if he had been a starter all season. What in the general F right? And two – I think the Panthers defense will be extremely tight.

So my Texans stacks will yes contain Cooks and Davis but – did you know Anthony Miller is on this team? He is! But he hasn’t played yet. No Danny Amendola tonight opens some opportunity there for Miller if he is on the field. Hey did you know Chris Conley is on this team? He is! He lined up at Tight End last week! Nico Collins (another WR for the Texans is out) – take a shot on Conley in Texas stacks. I also actually do not mind either Texan Actual Tight Ends Jordan Aikins and Pharoah Brown. I loved what I saw from Brown in Week 1.

This is also a game that I think Kickers Matter in. How about a revenge game for the Texan’s Joey Slye! Remember he played for the Panthers last season! Throw him in a Texas stack! And have one lineup with the Texans defense and if you do, I don’t mind stacking with the Panther’s Zane Gonzales.

As if you couldn’t tell by now. I hate this slate. My advice in the beginning of the article is the best I can give. Be different. Leave money on the table and play Christian McCaffrey. Let Lady Luck be on your side for the rest. Good luck in your contests.

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