Week 3 Concludes – Monday Night Football DFS Strategy & Picks – Cowboys Eagles – Real Deal Fantasy HQ

You can find me on Twitter @DelRayBoston

Always fun to have a divisional battle on Prime Time and tonight’s matchup with the Cowboys and Eagles should be one for the record books! When you take a look at both teams they have talent that can really make this a fun matchup and one that I think DFS players can really capitalize on!

For both teams tonight is a big game and a chance to take the lead in the NFC East. I personally see a high scoring game and Las Vegas agrees with the line set at 51.5! In DK Showdown and FD Single Game tournaments, Raw Points will matter big time – so we will need to be choosy when stacking the studs and plugging in the value. So LET’S GO!

The Philadelphia Eagles

Here’s the deal – Jaylen Hurts ($16,500 Captain, $11,000 Flex, $16,000 FD) is in a GREAT spot tonight. The Cowboys are coming into this game ranked 31st against Quarterbacks and allowing a whopping 346+ Passing Yards per game. On top of that they are allowing over 419 total yards to opposing offenses and 24 points. Hurts himself averages over 240 passing yards and over 54 yards on the ground. Hurts has a real chance to dominate the Cowboys defense and for me he is the most logical Eagle at Captain or MVP. While I think Hurts will be close to 50% owned in the Flex, I think he will come in less than 30% owned in Captain/MVP where most players are looking at targeting a Wide Receiver or Running back. The reason however I like Hurts best in that top spot is the volatility he provides with his legs. If I am trying to maximize Raw Points, his chance to run 50 or more yards – possibly run in a touchdown or two – all the while passing for 250+ … those are the raw points I like.

The issue with the Eagles however is who to stack Hurts with? I think the two most logical plays rookie Devonta Smith ($10,800 Captain, $7,200 Flex, $10,500 FD) and second year man Jalen Reagor ($9,300 Captain, $6,300 Flex, $7,500 FD). Of the two, Smith would be my preference seeing 7.5 targets per game based on the first two weeks, but that isn’t to say I don’t like Reagor as he has seen 5.5 targets on average. Last week against the 49ers, neither man produced with the targets they saw – so I am more looking at Week 1 where both not only saw the most targets they each have had in the young season, but both also had a touchdown. Could that happen again? Possibly! But I do think a double stack with Hurts – Smith and Reagor will be popular. On DK I will be playing more Hurts – Smith as I like Smith’s price for a Flex. I am not crazy about his FanDuel Price, where I much prefer the Hurts – Reagor stack. I am a big fan of the pricing on Reagor on both sites for what it’s worth.

If you are interested in double stacking though, the guy I have my eye on most to pair with Hurts, Smith and/or Reagor is WR3 Quez Watkins ($8,100 Captain, $5,400 Flex, $7,000 FD) who really stepped up in Week 2 against the 49ers and sure it was only 2 targets but it he put on 117 yards and a score! Yes, this is a dart throw target as it is an unknown how many targets he will see with a “softer” defense that will likely give Smith and Reagor more opportunities – but I love the DK price and if this leads to Quez being the X in this offense, I’ll definitely take a shot on him against this Cowboys’ defense! If you are multi-entering I would certainly recommend having a few Quez lineups especially if you are full stacking Eagles.

I think it will be popular tonight for many DFS players to have a stack with Dallas Goedert ($9,900 Captain, $6,600 Flex, $9,500 FD) and to a lesser extent Zach Ertz ($3,300 Captain, $2,200 Flex, $6,000 FD). It is natural to think Tight End when you think Eagles and a lot of players pay a lot less attention to stats than you may think. They will see the fun green 29 next to both men’s names and say oh – great matchup! However, dig deeper and you will see that Jaylen Hurts has only targeted his tight ends a total of 11 times collectively over the first two weeks. Compare that to 15 total targets for Devonta Smith, 11 for Jalen Reagor and 5 for my man Quez. It just seems with the step up in Wide Receiver talent that the Eagles’ Tight Ends have become more secondary targets.

Now if you are playing either, it is Goedert who has certainly taken over as the #1 but I’ll be honest, I’m not crazy about either tonight. Sure this is a great matchup for Tight Ends and possibly it could lead to more but as I have hopefully pointed out it’s a great matchup for all of the Eagles’ pass catchers and it just seems after the first two weeks, Hurts is looking to his wide receivers more often. I think if you are playing Goedert you are hoping for a Touchdown and for me his prices dictate him more of flex than a Captain (I can’t pay $9,500 for 25 yards and a TD). I certainly can’t pay $9,500 on FD for him. And Ertz … his price tags on both sites could really help the rest of your lineup but he is too much of a risk for me to play. Remember what I said – Raw Points are going to matter, but I just don’t see the Raw Points you need coming from Eagles TEs. If they beat me they beat me, but that’s my take.

The last Eagles skill players I want to mention are Miles Sanders ($12,000 DK, $8,000 Flex, $11,000 FD) and Kenneth Gainwell ($7,500 Captain, $5,000 Flex, $8,000 FD). For the same reason I think Eagles Tight Ends will be popular, I think the Eagles’ running game will be unpopular plays. Dallas lists as the 10th best in the league holding opposing teams rushing attacks to under 80 yards on the ground. Sanders is the clear 1 with over 60% of snaps, but Gainwell is well gaining with over 30%. I actually have a good feeling about both players particularly in this matchup with his usage in the passing game … Philadelphia running backs have seen a combined 13 targets over the last two weeks. If you are building around one it is Sanders as his usage and his overall acumen should be considered even against a tougher Cowboys run defense. Also due to his snap share, I think he is fine to add to 3 or 4 man Eagles stacks. However I really do not mind using Gainwell in stacks tonight either. I’m not suggesting playing them together in lineups, but I will have a few lineups with either or running back in them. Simply as leverage plays – but with upside!

The Dallas Cowboys

Man for all the praise Dak Prescott ($16,800 Captain, $11,200 Flex, $16,000 FD) got after his week 1 performance, he go the equal amount of Day looked awful chatter after Week 2. In this case I think you have to fade the noise. While I prefer Hurts as a captain or MVP, I don’t want that to sound like I don’t like Prescott. In fact I think where you can including Prescott in lineups with Hurts will be a smart move. Again – Raw Points. Yes, the Eagles are overall a pretty good defense and yes Prescott is coming off of a 8 point fantasy day against another good defense in the Chargers, but I think there are three differences that you should be aware of. First, the Eagles’s best performance so far was in week 1 against the hapless Falcons. In week 2 they recorded exactly no sacks, no interceptions and allowed 17 points. The second is this is a division game for the Cowboys against a team they are familiar with and lastly, the Cowboys are at home tonight. I look for Prescott to bounce back in a competitive game and I think you need to consider him in your lineups…

Before I get into the Prescott’s pass catchers, I think I need to address Ezekiel Elliot ($12,600 Captain, $8,400 Flex, $12,000 FD) and Tony Pollard ($11,400 Captain, $7,600 Flex, $5,000 FD). Here’s some #FantasyAnalysis for you. You are playing them both. Not together of course. But you are playing the both. Simply put – there is no question Big Zeke is still the workhorse in this offense and yes the Eagles are ranked 9th against the running back. But they are still ceding over 120 yards on the ground and with Zeke on the field for 90% of snaps, I don’t think he can be ignored. I think with all of the press on Tony Pollard this week, it will actually help to keep Zeke’s ownership down in tournaments and so while he isn’t my favorite Cowboy to play, I think it would be a mistake to not have a healthy share of Zeke. Regarding Tony Pollard – I think he makes a fine play as well and I love him in stacks with Prescott and his other pass catchers, moreso than I do as a run back in a Philly stacks – which I think he will be very popular in. In fact it wouldn’t shock me if Tony Pollard was the second or third most played Cowboy. His targets in week 2 certainly has raised his stock. So again, you are playing both – but be judicial in how. I like Zeke more in Philly stacks and I like Pollard more in Passing themed Cowboys stacks. However in if you are building an Onslaught Cowboys stack or multiple – both of these guys should be in consideration.

Ok so now let’s have some fun. I love CeeDee Lamb ($14,700 Captain, $9,800 Flex, $12,500 FD) tonight – but everyone else does too. He is looking to be the highest owned Cowboy and the highest owned player on the slate – including the highest owned captain. Now it is tough not to like Lamb tonight, even in a tough matchup against the Chargers he turned 9 targets to 81 yards and even saw a rushing attempt for 13 yards. But I love trying to find a way to double stack him with Amari Cooper ($13,500 Captain, $9,000 Flex, $13,000 FD). While Cooper only saw 5 targets last week, I think in a tougher defensive matchup his superior route running will be key to the Cowboys success and seeing as he saw 17 targets against a tough TB defense gives me hope that his 5 targets last week is an outlier. I love the double stack of these two but the wild card in the mix has got to be Cedrick Wilson ($6,600 Captain, $4,400 Flex, $6,500 FD). It isn’t that Wilson has fully captured the Michael Gallup role, it’s more so that he is in the Michael Gallup role that is intriguing and if the Philadelphia defense slows either Lamb or Cooper, I think Wilson could be the beneficiary. And who knows maybe he is the Quez Watkins or the Cowboys this week taking 2 for 100… anything can happen. Love his price on DK for what it’s worth.

The Cowboys Tight Ends are in play as well. I like them more than the Philly duo. It has been a long truth in Fantasy that you play your tight ends against Philadelphia. The other reason is because with so much attention on Lamb, Cooper and the Philadelphia offense – both Dalton Schultz ($7,200 Captain, $4,800 Flex, $6,500 FD) and Blake Jarwin ($4,500 Captain, $3,000 Flex, $6,000 FD) I think will go overlooked. I am not talking start your Cowboys lineups with them, I am just saying – don’t overlook either’s sleeper appeal here. I more favor them on DK because of their prices, but I much prefer them as a end of the lineup filler than the Philly guys and definitely more than the defenses here.

Speaking of defenses – again #FantasyAnalysis I’m not playing them tonight. I just don’t see either getting more fantasy points than any of the second or third tier players on either team and I just see many people playing the Eagles based on Dak’s performance last week so I am staying away. Kickers however are prime time live as these two rivals will try and get any points they can. Greg The Leg Zuerlein ($6,000 Captain, $4,000 Flex, $9,000 FD) and Jake Elliot ($5,700 Captain, $3,800 Flex, $8,500 FD). As always these are DK plays for me – there is no way I am paying those prices for kickers on FanDuel but I do think a few smatterings of kickers in your multi-entered lineups won’t kill ya – and I kinda like the Leg for what it’s worth tonight.

Good Luck in your Contests!

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