Week 4 Begins – Thursday Night Football DFS Strategy & Targets – Jaguars Bengals – Real Deal Fantasy HQ

You can find me on Twitter @delrayboston

It’s the battle of back to back #1 Picks and it should be a great one for Fantasy and Daily Fantasy players! You have two teams in the Jags and Bengals who aren’t defensive powerhouses going up one another with largely funneled offenses and so I think tonight’s tournaments will need you to find as much leverage as you can while not sacrificing raw points. The issue is where do you find the leverage when these offenses are so concentrated that the players you most want to play are all over 25-30% owned all the while being fairly moderately priced (compared to other recent Showdown/Single Game Slates). For instance, tonight on DK there is no player over $17,500 at Captain or $11,600 at Flex and on FanDuel, no player over $15,500. The point I am making here is there will be ways to put most any player you want into a lineup and stay under the salary cap and since (again) these are rather ‘funneled’ offenses, you have to go in assuming your lineup likely won’t be unique…

So you need to find leverage in your lineup construction and not necessarily with a player you select. This may be one of the rare times in single game scenarios where I think that lineup construction leverage will be who you select at Captain or MVP, epsecially on DK.

The Bengals

With the Bengals the favorites tonight, you need to expect a lot of ownership on Joe Borrow ($17,400 Captain, $11,600 Flex, $15,000 FD), Joe Mixon ($16,500 Captain, $11,000 Flex, $14,000 FD), Ja’Mar Chase ($15,300 Captain, $10,200 Flex, $12,500 FD) and Tyler Boyd ($11,100 Captain, $7,400 Flex, $10,000). From a Raw Points Perspective with no care of ownership, I think my targets would be Chase and Mixon. With Tee Higgins off the field tonight, this should be Chases’ show and the connection between Chase and Burrow has been the talk of the town over the last 3 weeks. Mixon on the other hand continues to dominate the touches out of the backfield and with the Jags allowing over 100 yards on the ground each game, I think Mixon could be in store for a nice night. But from a leverage perspective on DK, out of this group I think your pick is Tyler Boyd who should be the lowest owned of the Bengal’s Big 4 but with ample opportunity. I think DFSers will look at Boyd’s FFPTS score from last week and shy away, but in that same game Higgins saw 10 targets from Burrow before exiting. With those targets now needing a home, I think Boyd is a strong play at Captain help you gain some leverage. Additonally with Boyd being the cheapest of the big 4, theres a bit of salary saving advantage with him as Captain.

On FD, I think the best MVP play in the group is Joe Mixon, since FanDuel doesn’t award passing yard bonuses, Mixon’s raw points will likely be a necessary piece to a winning lineup.

The other ways I see you gaining an amount of leverge while not totally giving up raw points is to look at the secondary pieces to the Bengals puzzle – and I am not talking about Dart Throws here either. First is Kicker Evan McPherson ($5,700 Captain, $3,800 Flex, $9,500 FD) and the Bengals Defense ($8,400 Captain, $5,600 Flex). While you are still going to be looking at around 20% ownership on both of these plays, I think what makes them interesting leverage is in Bengals onslaught stacks. Where instead of playing 2 Jags to work in with your Bengals stack, you are playing either the Bengals kicker or defense to complete the onslaught. I do not know how much that tactic will be taken but I don’t think it is a bad strategy.

I know that many of you will be looking for #DFSAnalysis on the Bengals Dart Throws in TE Drew Sample and WRs Auden Tate and Mike Thomas but I have to be honest, outside of salary saving I don’t know what to do with any of them. With Higgins off the field during last game the target share didn’t shift to any of these guys and I am not sure it will NEED to shift to any of them tonight either. I do think the Bengals jump to a lead here and never look back and sure absolutely, any of these 3 could get a right place right time red zone look – I’m looking for dart throw value elsewhere tonight….

The Jaguars

So here’s the thing … my favorite dart throw Captains on DK are the Jaguars Recievers aka the Juniors. Marvin Jones Jr ($12,900 Captain, $8,600 Flex , $11,500 FD), DJ Chark Jr ($10,800 Captain, $7,200 Flex, $10,500 FD) and Laviska Shenault Jr ($9,900 Captain, $6,600 Flex, $8,500 FD). A couple reasons and the first being that I see each of them coming in considerably lower owned in the Captain spot versus any of the Bengals and the second being (and I hate saying this) I think the Jaguars will be throwing to make up points. The latter reason is simple – they have had to be throwing every week this season already, why stop now! From a raw points perspective I think you could flip a coin between Jones and Chark. Jones has emerged as the #1 WR in this offense so his targets are there as well as his excellent route running. He should see plenty of work. Chark on the other hand offers more explosive, chunk yardage plays, so I could see either of these guys being the highest scoring Jag tonight from a Fantasy perspective. Shenault feels like the odd man out this season but if you are multi-entering, I might suggest at least one Shenault captain lineup. He certainly offers the most versatility and I love his flex price on DK for a guy who should see 70-75% of offensive snaps.

You may think because I like the Jaguars’ receivers so much I must like Trevor Lawrence ($15,600 Captain, $10,400 Flex, $14,500 FD) but you would be wrong, well kinda. I just don’t like how popular Lawrence will be as play tonight where I’d estimate him at north of 40% ownership. This is a rookie starter with more interceptions thrown than touchdowns through 3 weeks and while that sounds like it will hinder the receivers, it shouldn’t as he is still throwing an average of 39 passes per game. So I just don’t think you need to stack Jags receivers with Lawrence and I think that alone will be different in tournaments tonight. On DK I will have some shares as you’d think since I’ll be multi-entering, but on Single Entry or 3 Entry Max tournaments, I’ll save the money and the ownership and hold off. Anything can happen in the NFL of course, but I just haven’t seen enough positives out of Lawrence to invest that level of salary in Showdown and Single Game tournaments tonight… #HotTake

I also kinda feel the same about the Jaguars running game. James Robinson ($14,100 Captain, $9,400 Flex, $12,000 FD) has for many fantasy players thankfully been taking the majority of running back work once again but what has that meant? Well last week a lot – over 100 yards from scimmage for the first time this season and a score. However, the Bengals have been pretty good against the run thus far, averaging 78 yards allowed to opposing running games. So what do we do? We know Robinson will see the work, but he is expensive and there is a real risk we could be looking at 11 for 47 again. The Jaguar’s offensive line is trash and I could really see the Bengals forcing Lawrence to throw by containing Robinson and to a lesser extent Carlos Hyde ($2,700 Captain, $1,800 Flex, $8,000 FD) who at his prices is a DK play for me only by the way. Twice this season Hyde has ran for 44 yards, but he also hasn’t caught a pass since week 1 and he wasn’t targeted once last week. I think sprinkling some of the Jaguars running backs, with Robinson being the priority of the two, into your lineups if you are multi entering is a smart move. However I much prefer the Wide Receivers in this game for what it’s worth.

So now let’s talk Jaguars Dart Throws. The biggest one has to be newest Tight End to the team Dan Arnold ($6,600 Captain, $4,400 Flex, $7,000 FD) , who is coming off the best game of his career last week and now finds himself in DUVALL… running alongside former Seahawk Jacob Hollister ($1,500 Captain, $1,000 Flex, $7,000 FD). You can’t play Arnold in the main slate this weekend on DK but you can here and while I can’t think he has a grasp of the playbook coming in on a short week from him, I could see him get a couple targets – but with James O’Shaughnessy out – I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jacob Hollister get more involved – at least for tonight. I think Hollister makes for the better play tonight only becuase he has been a Jag through training camp but I’ll have a few shares at both these guys at extremely low ownership. The same goe for Kicker – oh wait, you don’t have a Jags kicker to play on Draft Kings. You can play Mathew Wright on FanDuel for a whopping $9,000 (seriously FanDuel) but I think I’d rather play another reciever on either team. The Jags could be kicking a lot but $9,000? I’ll hard pass.

And if you are gutsy throw a couple lineups together with the Jags Defense – just remember, we are a long way from Sacksonville, Toto…

GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS!

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