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Week 4 presents a lot of options for DFS with 4 games coming in with a line over 50 as well as notable injuries in games that are being overlooked, simply becuase the lines on them are under 50 and in some cases well under 50.
I think the natural inclination here is to attack the games with the highest point totals, but along with that will come the realization that these games will have the most ownership. This is a bit of a falicy. I think what we will see is higher owenership on Quarterbacks that are in percieved “tougher matchups” because most players will asssume that by going different at Quarterback, espcially a cheap one, will allow more chalky players to enter their lineup… but let me burst your bubble a bit. Quarterbacks are the most random players found in lineups, people spread their ownership on quarterbacks so much, you rarely have a Quaterback over 15% owned. In fact you may have one or two quarterbacks that reach 10-13% ownership like we do this week (Josh Allen, Dak Prescott) and then literally every other starter sits between 8 – 3%. So what does that mean?
If you are understanding what I am saying here, what that means is (especially if your are multi-entering) if you need to pick a pool of QBs and stick with it. That Pool should contain 2-3 of the QBs featured in the projected highest scoring games, 2 should be in games that are being labeled “Sleepers” and then your final 1 or 2 should be “dart throws”. That pool should be your building blocks of your lineups. So here is my core QB Pool:
Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Sam Darnold, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill.
JOSH ALLEN ($8,000 DK, $8,500 FD). The Buffalo Bills have the highest projected team total on the slate. They come into this game allowing Quarterbacks a lot of room to move, but interestingly a pretty tough secondary. The reason Allen though tops my list is because of his weapons – Stefon Diggs ($7,600 DK, $8,500 FD) is your most likely stacking option but look at the price tag on Emmauel Sanders ($4,900 DK, $5,800 FD) on DK. I love this double stack Diggs and Sanders with Allen. I think the natural inclination is to think that the Texans can’t keep this game competitive, so the Bills will go up and run the ball to chew up the clock. However the Buffalo Bills don’t play like that. Even if they are up by a touchdown or more at half time, it isn’t like they are going to start scoring points and I think both recievers are in line for a solid day. I also really like what Running Back Zack Moss ($5,300 DK, $6,000) has been doing over the last two weeks. 13 for 60 on the ground last week and 3 for 31 and a score, last week. He is a solid option today along with Devin Singletary ($4,800 DK, $5,700 FD). I like attacking with the Bills today and building around them and while I could mention Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis and Dawson Knox, they aren’t as large of a priority for me in tournaments, but if you are playing a showdown or single game here, they should be in your mix as well.
DAK PRESCOTT ($6,700 DK, $7,700 FD)
Prescott looks to be the second highest owned QB behind Allen but where he differs from Allen is his matchup. The Panthers Defense has looked great through 3 games… it will cause every DFS player to see the dreaded red 1 next to the matchup on DK. It will also cause DFS players to consider doing a lot of crazy things, like ignoring the Dallas Run Game and starting Dallas TEs over Travis Kelce … I think that is a mistake. I like this to be a very competitive game and I like Prescott with Ceedee Lamb ($6,700 DK, $7,400) and Amari Cooper ($6,000 DK, $7,600 FD) as the top stacking options. It is so easy to run this stack back with the Panther’s DJ Moore ($6,600 DK, $7,300 FD). I also love the sneaky play of Tony Pollard ($5,700 DK, $5,600) as well. If there is a way to neutralize a pass rush it is to get the ball out fast to the flats and I like Pollard to be involved from the first series on. Additionally do not be afraid to look at Eziekiel Elliot ($6,500 DK, $7,000 FD). If Dak can get his recievers working, it will open up plenty of space for the Work Horse of the offense to run through.
The Other side of this game is definitely where most of my lineups will start with. Sam Darnold ($6,000 DK, $7,200) is coming in literally with half the ownership as Dak and has every bit of the opportunity that Dak does to put up a tournament winning score. We already mentioned DJ Moore but don’t forget, after a week of practicing without Christian McCaffery I think this could be a Robbie Anderson ($5,100 DK, $5,700 FD) bounce back opportunity. Use 2020 Anderson without McCafferey as my guide. I think that a lot of players will gravitate a cheap Chubba Hubbard ($5,900 DK, $6,300 FD) but I am not so sure he will have the game that many think. He certainly will have the opportunity, but I do feel like this will be a game that Darnold takes on his shoulders and my priority here is the Darnold-Moore stack, with Anderson slipped in here or there. I also love Amari Cooper’s price as a run back here.
RUSSELL WILSON ($7,100 DK, $7,700 FD)
In what could end up being the most fantasy friendly games of the season, two loaded offenses playing two not so loaded defenses, Russell Wilson is coming in at about 4% ownership on the day and that to me makes no sense. Did you know Tyler Lockett will play today? He will and I love both DK Metcalf ($7,200 DK, $7,700 FD) and Tyler Lockett ($7,100 DK, $7,900 FD) in this matchup with the 49ers who have shown a lot of weakness in thier secondary. They will not be the popular stack that you think they will be, in fact they individually will be more popular as one offs than they will in a stack. Completing this stack, I have to look to Chris Carson ($6,300 DK, $7,300 FD) as he should have a great opportunity today against a venerable 49ers defense. I like Carson to add a touchdown – maybe two to his line and no one plays QB with RB and WR …
However, I actually really like a game stack here. George Kittle ($5,900 DK, $6,700 FD) will play today. Elijah Mitchell is doubtful so uber cheap on DK Trey Serman ($5,000 DK, $5,900 FD) should have a much easier matchup today to show what he can do. Deebo Samuel ($6,500 DK, $6,900 FD) is an obvious run back but the guy I like to continue to return to form after last week is Brandon Aiyuk ($5,000 DK, $5,700 FD). This will be a sneaky game stack as much like the Seahawks, I think most of the 49ers will be popular one offs in lineups. Wilson-Serman-Lockett-Metcalf-Aiyuk-Kittle. That’s hot.
KIRK COUSINS ($6,400 DK, $7,500 FD) gets no respect from DFS players. All 3 weeks this season he has ended with 25 or more Fantasy Points and at the time of this writing, less than 3% of lineups has him in them… what gives? Let’s mirror image this – Cousins with his two top recievers Justin Jefferson ($7,300 DK, $7,800 FD) and Adam Thielen ($6,800 DK, $7,500 FD) will be a big stack I am looking at in a matchup where they come in as underdogs with the Browns. It should be noted that Dalvin Cook will play today and I just heard him on NFL Network say “look for me to be me”. While it’s a tougher run matchup with the Browns, I like Cook’s passing game involvement and if I am playing Cousins I am stacking him with his most likely pass catchers – Cook included.
RYAN TANNEHILL ($6,300 DK, $7,400 FD)
NO ONE wants to touch Tannehill this week. No AJ Brown, No Julio Jones. I get it. Additionally EVERYONE wants to touch Derrick Henry ($8,800 DK, $10,500 FD) and why not. Even if the Titans had all of their weapons, I’d expect Henry to destroy the Jets. Henry will end close to 25% owned on both sites and while I will certainly have plenty of exposure to the King – I think an extremely sneaky way to gain leverage on the Chalk is to have a lineup with Tannehill – Henry and one of these cheap Titans Recievers, with my favorite being Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($3,200 DK, $5,300 FD) with some secondary interest in Chester Rodgers ($3,300 DK, $5,100 FD). NWI took most of the targets after Jones left the game last week and I like him to act as today’s Titan’s #1 this week. Additionally, running this stack back with Corey Davis ($5,000 DK, $5,700 FD) is a smart approach. Davis is likely to be around 10% owned and if you are playing the ownership game the balance of a stack like this can give you a lot more leeway on the rest of your lineups.
Other Games, Targets and Stacks on my Radar
The Colts and Dolphins are being extremely overlooked today and I like the mini-stack of Jaylen Waddle and Michael Pittman as secondary peice to a lineup. No one is looking at this game but neither team wants to take a step back in their divisions and I think it will be quietly competitive.
Everyone is flocking to the $2,100 Detriot Lions Defense on DK, but I think you can gain a lot of leverage with David Montgomery. If I am the Bears and I saw the struggles of my young QB, for my money I am putting the ball in the hands of my stud RB and I think Montgomery is a major sleeper with a lot of upside today.
The Chiefs and Eagles should have an offensive explosion today. Each of your primary Chiefs studs are the most expensive plays at their position. My favorite of the Chiefs studs is Travis Kelce. There is no way Thor doesn’t smash in this matchup. But the Eagles are being practically forgotten about and my favorite Eagle here is Miles Sanders. A mini stack of Sanders and Kelce is one of my favorite secondary game stacks. I am also interested in some one offs coming from this game more than any other. Devonata Smith, Jalen Reagor lead that pack. Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman and Clyde Edwards-Helaire also are in my one off mix. While a full game stack is warranted, I think using pieces of this game will be a way to differentiate your lineups.
The Browns are going to be popular. Baker is cheap, Odell is cheap, Kareem Hunt just had a monster performance and his price didn’t move. Sure I love the Browns today against a Vikings D that is for lack of a better word – Trash. However the guy that is being overlooked that I talk about every week is Nick Chubb. Don’t ignore Chubb. Last week the Browns were in a much more competitive game than perhaps was expected so Hunt saw a lot of work, but today in this matchup I think the Browns come out pounding the rock agains the generous Vikings run defense and I think Chubb will dominate. I love countering the other Browns chalk by playing an underowned Nick Chubb.
While I can’t talk about every game I did want to mention another game that is largely being overlooked and that is the Chargers and the Raiders. This is going to be a sneaky one and I love the game stack here. But maybe not the one you think. Derek Carr – Austin Ekeler – Keenan Allen – Mike Williams – Darren Waller. Play it. I think the Raiders will make life tough for Justin Herbert with a red hot pass rush. However I also can’t ignore 3 straight week of top 5 QB performances from Derek Carr. All of the guys I just mentioned will be very popular one offs. The full stack will not be. I’ll have a couple lineups mixed and matched with that game stack though and I’d reccomend you do too.
Last think to mention – don’t overlook Daniel Jones – Kadarius Toney – Alvin Kamara as a sneaky no one is looking at game stack … oh yeah and Curtis Samuel makes his debut on the Football Team against Atlanta. Everyone will be playing McLauren and Ridley… think differently.
GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS!