Digging into the Seahawks & the Rams – Week 5 Thursday Night Football DFS Strategy & Picks – Real Deal Fantasy HQ

You Can Find Me on Twitter @DelRayBoston

I don’t want to say that the direction this slate will go for DFS players is riding on the back of Chris Carson, but it kinda is. Let me explain. First, if you weren’t aware Chris Carson is looking more and more to be a game time decision with an injured shoulder. Unless we get news sooner than close to kickoff, I think that is going to prevent me from using him as a Captain on DK. The scramble to swap out a lineup with Carson at $9,900 at Captain, would cause me would be too much to do and not a lot of time to do it. So for me on DK, Carson is in the Flex where he is a more maneagable $6,600. The thing is though – if Carson plays, I see multiple ways that he could get there in terms of Tournament Winning Appeal. First the Rams are in the back half of the league against the Run. Then there is the pass rush of Arron Donald & Co where Carson could be peppered with dump off passes. I’d love to capture all that production at Captain. On FanDuel, since there isn’t a price hike for MVP this situation also is a bit more manageable. What I mean by that is at Carson’s Flex price or even his FanDuel price of $11,000, you have other players in similar price ranges that you can easily swap too.

But why am I saying the Carson news will shape the direction of what this slate looks like is because of Alex Collins. Collins is obvioulsy a lot cheaper than Carson at $4,800 Captain, $3,200 Flex and $7,500 FanDuel. Great prices sure but can you play Collins even without knowing if Carson is in or out? No, you really can’t. Even if you build under the idea that Carson will be limited in his touches, well that would mean that Collins also would also be limited in touches. So I believe that as of right now Collins’ ownership will be low and without that cheap piece to build around there will be a lot of players with lineups that look largley the same – one or two higher priced studs, a couple dart throws and likely – Carson.

Now if news breaks that Carson is out at 6PM, I think Collins’ ownership will skyrocket and you should assume that it will, which will lead to a decision – do I play the chalk or do I stay the course to with what I have? So again -the Carson news I think will really shape what this slate looks like.

So how am I handling this uncertainty – I’m fading all of it and playing Darrell Henderson $12,600 Captain, $8,400 Flex, $13,000 FD. With all of the Chris Carson headlines I think Henderson is going to go overlooked and I love his opportunity against the Seahawks – DEAD LAST – against the run. When healthy Henderson has dominated the touhes in the Rams backfield and with no injury distinction locking him in carries a lot less trepadation. I’m not saying don’t play Chris Carson or Alex Collins. I’m just saying, if you see my lineups don’t be surprised to see none of either of them and plenty of Henderson…

Another Ram who I think will be going way underowned tonight is Robert Woods $11,400 Captain, $7,600 Flex, $10,000 FD. First off – love the DK Flex price and the FanDuel Price on Woods. Look, you know everyone will be racing to stack Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, we know this – they have breakfast together, we’ve heard it. However, Woods is coming off a fine Week 4, 6 for 48 and a score and sure it would have been 3 down weeks for the reciever without the touchdown. But during the post game press conference, when asked about Woods, Coach McVay simply said – It’s on me. I, we, need to find more ways to get him involved. That’s enough for me… So Stack Matt Stafford and Cooper Kupp, but throw Woods in for a double stack. It just feels right and because of the multiple down weeks, his ownership shoud stay down as well… gain some leverage!

Staying with the Rams, the Tyler Higbee is a thing… Higbee has seen 6 targets in 3 of 4 games and while he has only one touchdown catch this season, he has had his opportunities. He needs to be in your player pool tonight just like any Rams pass catcher and I love the pricing ($8,400 Captain, $5,600 Flex, $7,000 FD) across the board. I’m also intrigued by the prospect of Van Jefferson. His weeks 1 and 4 were outstanding and weeks 2 and 3 were not. So yes, he is a dart throw – but also keep in mind his targets have gone from 3 in each of the first two games to 6 in the last two games. That says to me he has caught the eye of Stafford and McVay. I like Jefferson as a secondary piece to a Rams stack especially if Higbee’s ownership gets too high. And don’t forget the ultimate boom or bust candidate Desean Jackson $6,600 Captain, $4,400 Flex, $8,000 FD – definitely worth a dart throw, especially if you are multi-entering. You never know when that lightning will strike.

You might be saying here – why isn’t he talking about Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp more? Do I need to? As bad as the Seahawks are against the run they hav been equally bad against the pass and so I am going to assume if you are playing Rams you are starting with Stafford and Kupp and building around them. So what I wanted to do here is give you some thoughts on who to build around them with. My favorite is indeed Darrell Henderson but I’ll have a healthy dose of Woods, Higbee and Jefferson (sounds like a law firm) in my lineups.

I’ll say the same thing about Russell Wilson. The Rams have a great front 7, we know. They also have Jaylen Ramsey. However in spite of that, they have allowed over 273 yards through the air and are ranked 25th in the league against the Pass. Your Seahawks builds are going to start with Russell Wilson.

So the question here is – will we see Metcalf & Ramsey round 3 tonight or will Ramsey do his Ramsey Spy Thing to keep DangeRuss in check. Either way, this just feels like a Tyler Lockett game to me… Lockett is a full $1,000 less than DK Metcalf on DK at $14,400 Captain and $9,600 Flex and while I think you shouldn’t fear Ramsey and play plenty of DK tonight, I’m just sayin’ Lockett will be a little underowned tonight due to two down weeks in a row, so show him some love. And isn’t this the kinda time where The Rocket Lockett always comes out to play? When he hasn’t performed “lately”. I surely like Metcalf don’t mistake that, but I love me some Lockett tonight.

The problem with the Seahawks is after Metcalf, Lockett and Carson/Collins – who the heck to you play to fill out a lineup? Will Dissly? $5,700 Captain, $3,800 Flex, $6,000 FD averaging 2 targets per game? If Ramsey eliminates Metcalf, you may be glad you had some Big Diss in your lineups. I kinda like looking at Freddie Swain $6,900, $4,600 Flex, $6,500 FD though. Did you know Freddie Swain has 2 touchdown catches this season? Yup. Or that he’s seen 4 or more targets in both of those Touchdown games too? In a tough divisional matchup, with that all hands on deck type of atmosphere, I could see Swain sneaking into the Red Zone a nabbing a score? That can be difference maker in Showdowns. I also think if we get news that Carson is out and Collins is in, you should have a couple shots on Travis Homer $1,500 Captain, $1,000 Flex, $5,500 FD who should operate as a third down, pass catching option and a change of pace. It’s not that I’m a homer for Homer, it’s just what I said earlier – the Rams are 25th against the run and allowing over 120 yards on the ground and if he is on the field and Russell Wilson rolls out to his right, or left, or just rolls – you never know what is going to happen.

In a division rivalry game I’m never not going to tell you not to play Defenses and Kickers – but always keep in mind, if you are looking at either and they are the same price as a potential dart throw with some upside like some of the ones I listed here, you always have to ask – is it more or less likely that this kicker or defense can outscore this dart throw if this dart throw does what I’m hoping it does. If the answer is yes, find a place for the defense or kicker or both in your lineup. If the answer is no, feel confident in your choices. #Analysis

And for what it’s worth – Alex Collins looked Damn Good in relief last week…

Favorite Captains/MVP Picks

Mathew Stafford

Cooper Kupp

Darrell Henderson

Tyler Lockett

Russell Wilson

DK Metcalf

Tyler Higbee

GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS!

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