You can find me on Twitter @DelRayBoston
Tonight’s matchup with the Kansas City Cheifs and Buffalo Bills could possibly be the highest scoring game of the season and could also possibly be a preview for the AFC Championship game this season. You have two high powered offenses ready to go head to head and it is easily the most anticipated game of the week, by a mile.
I think the permeating feeling going into tonight by NFL Analysts is the question of how the Chiefs defense, which has given up points like crazy all season, will slow down Josh Allen and company. However when I look at this game, I have to wonder if there is any way that the Chiefs can come together and slow the Bill’s … what does this game end up looking like?
If you are playing DFS Showdowns or Single Game contests, I think you need to take both of these game theories into account… at least I am. My plan of attack tonight is to multi-enter and have 70/30 Chiefs stacks with Bills sprinkled in. My reason for this is simply because I think MOST DFS Players will go the other way, loading their lineup with Bills and one high priced Chiefs player following the storyline that most analysts are talking about – again – how can the Chiefs slow Josh Allen and Company down, with the answer being given as – they can’t. If I can gain some leverage and hit on the Chiefs correctly, I think that will put me ahead of the field.
I should mention in showdowns, leverage isn’t found as easily as rostering a low owned player that goes off. Sure, that can happen, but leverage in Showdowns is really found in building an opportunistic lineup that gives you solid production across all 6 of your roster spots. Most players will try and cram every ‘stud’ that they can in leaving their last roster spot to complete chance on the cheapest player possible. If you want to immediately jump the field in your contests, be smart and build your lineup with the most players who will actually see action and don’t sacrifice a roster spot on an absolute wing and a prayer…
The foundation of the Chiefs of course is Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Over the last several seasons in DFS experts have crowed about the negative leverage that a Double Stack of Hill and Kelce with Mahomes creates negative leverage in lineups and there was no bigger evidence of this than Week 4 where if you did stack the big 3, you likely didn’t cash with Tyreek Hill crushing with 50+ FPTS and Kelce ending with a pedestrian 6.3 FPTS. The reason why you likely didn’t cash if you did the Big 3 stack is deeper than the FPTS however. It is because all 3 are routinely the highest priced players at their position, so if you did that stack you likely suffered the lack of points from Kelce but also the lack of points from the rest of your lineup that most likely contained a lot of cheap dart throws.
The negative leverage that comes from the Hill-Kelce double stack with Mahomes becomes all the more apparent in Showdowns/Single Games where you are limited to only 6 Players and in order to Cash, you need all 6 players to perform. With each of Mahomes, Hill and Kelce also all above 9K as flexes and above 13K as Captains, again the rest of your lineup will need to contain a lot of cheap dart throws and your liklihood of getting every dart throw right is not very likely. So my approach here is to try and build Chiefs’ that are following a potential game theory that the Bill’s find a way to limit either Hill or Kelce and stacking accordingly, whil leaving enough salary on the table that I am including a high opportunity Bill’s player. Here is a lineup I built with this in mind:
(Captain) Patrick Mahomes (Flex) Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman, Josh Gordon, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Stefon Diggs
The story I am telling here is that The Bills’ solid secondary keys in on Tyreek Hill which forces Mahomes to look more at Kelce and secondary options, primarily Mecole Hardman ($4,600) who has really taken a step forward in this offense. Additionally, I wanted to have CEH in this lineup in the event that the Chiefs get down to the goal line a few times tonight and he runs in a score or two. I wanted to get Stefon Diggs into this lineup, so in order to do that I took a stab at ultra cheap ($1,800) Josh Gordon. Yes, this is a dart throw – but per the beat writers on the Chiefs, he will be active tonight after “endearing” himself to Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid this week. Plus this fits with the story in this lineup that the Bills limit Tyreek Hill and Mahomes needs to find second and third options to get the ball out.
Now you may think – well it’s negative correlation to have Hardman and Gordon in a lineup. That could be. So other ways to attack a lineup here is to save salary on Diggs and use Emmanuel Sanders in his place. Sanders has definately become a big part of the Bill’s passing game this season so the opportunity is there. However, on DK that will only save you $2000. So where I am looking is $6,200 Dawson Knox who is a Red Zone phenom after the last 2 weeks which allows for $2,800 in the salary where you can upgrade from Josh Gordon to either Kicker – Tyler Bass (Bills) or Harrison Butker (Chiefs) or you can remove Mecole Hardman from the lineup and pay for another Bill – RB Zack Moss, Sanders both in that range.
If I take Kelce out of that stack and add Hill, I am building the lineup completely differently and telling the story that it is Kelce that the Bill’s limit and Tyreek Hill goes bezerk:
(Captain) Tyreek Hill, (Flex) Patrick Mahomes, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Emmanuel Sanders, Zack Moss, Gabriel Davis
The story I am telling here is that Hill does what Hill did last week and goes nuts and the Bill’s are throwing like the wind to keep up. You want Mahomes here to double stack with Hill but I leave CEH in, in case Hill catches 2 or 3 bombs at the 2 yard line and they need the runnig back to run the ball in. Instead of using Josh Gordon as a dart throw, which would go against my storyline that Hill has all the air yards (or most of them) I am using Gabriel Davis – WAY TO CHEAP – at $1,000. The emergance of Emmanuel Sanders in the offense has limited Davis’ upside, but using him here again fits the story I am telling which is the Bills are going all out to keep up with Mahomes and Hill.
So that is two ways to attack the Chiefs tonight and I think I also touched on all of the Kansas City players I am eyeing. If you are mass multi-entering, I’d also suggest sprinkling in Demarcus Robinson and even Byron Pringle into 1 or 2 lineups that you aren’t using Gordon in.
Another reason why I think most players will have lineups that mainly focus on the Bills is because the most of the players you will want to play on the team are CHEAP… Sure Allen and Diggs are pricey, $13K and above at Captain and $8K and above at Flex – but let me run through “the other guys” real quick: Emmanuel Sanders $7,000, Zack Moss $6,600, Dawson Knox $6,200, Cole Beasley $5,800, Devin Singletary $5,200, Gabriel Davis $1,000… that also means any of these guys are UNDER $10k at Captain. It really makes Bill’s stacks, kinda easy … here’s one:
(Captain) Josh Allen (Flex) Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Dawson Knox, Zack Moss, Harrison Butker
A lineup like this is leaning on the near guarntee that each Bill rostered will have opportunities tonight and that the Chiefs are putting up points on every drive – including multiple Field Goals. I include the running back Zack Moss only because of the matchup and the possibility of touchdowns. Moss and Singletary should be rostered tonight with the Chiefs ranked 31st against the run and allowing nearly 150 yards on the ground on average this season. But what if you wanted to capture more of the Chiefs’ offensive production you could also build a lineup like this:
(Captain) Josh Allen (Flex) Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Gabriel Davis, Devin Singletary, Travis Kelce
The point is the pricing on the Bills just allows a lot of flexibility. Swapping Moss for Singletary may seem crazy but it allows you to swap Beasley for Sanders and keeps with the theme of “opportunity” as both Moss and Singletary had the exact same rushing attempts last week (14) and the matchup with the Chiefs defense is just plain Juicy. This construction allows you enough money to and pay up for Travis Kelce here while limiting dart throw to Gabriel Davis’ but the story here again is that the Chiefs are putting up points and the Bills are pulling out all the stops to keep pace.
My CORE Chiefs Plays tonight:
My CORE Bill’s Plays tonight:
My Secondary Plays and Dart Throws (in order of preference):
Tyler Bass (Kicker)
GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS