You can find me on Twitter @DelRayBoston
Is it just me or does it feel like the Buccaneers only play in Prime Time? Now of course I know that’s not true but sometimes it feels like it. Tonight’s matchup with the Eagles should offer plenty of Fantasy goodness to go around, with Tom Brady and his wide recievers healthy (sorry Gronk) and the Tampa Bay secondary giving up yardage and points like it is their job.
Today’s article is going to focus on a quick peak at ownership in the Showdown and Single Game tournaments. After all, how can we help you to build a better lineup if we can’t help you find leverage, right? Overwhelmingly and maybe not surprisingly, on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Tom Brady and Jalen Hurts are garnering massive ownership in the Flex. 50+ for Brady and 49+ for Jalen Hurts. However what strikes me is in the Capatin or MVP spots, neither man is seeing above 17% ownership. What that says to me is that in that top spot, DFS players are a) multi entering like whoa and b) are trying to build each of their lineups with variance by trying out multiple players in their top spots. I completely understand this strategy but this brings me to my first leverage play – Lock the QBs in as your Captain or MVP 100% and build down from there. Now, this might be tough because of cost on especially on Draft Kings – but if you are exclusively using them in the top spot and creating variance with your flex plays, I think you may gain some leverage on the field tonight if both men have a good game.
The second piece of ownership news I want to highlight is how the Wide Recievers in this game look to be shaping up. Over the weekend we saw Mike Evans be the lowest owned of the Buc’s WRs with Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown above him respectively. Now on both sites, it has flip flopped with Evans looking to be the most popular and Brown the least. Even if it is only a difference of 5 – 8 percentage points (based on the site), take the leverage and use Brown as the core of any double stack you are playing with Buccaneers WRs. In the 4 games he has played, Brown has seen no less than 7 targets and has 3 Touchdowns. Mix and Match them Evans + Brown + Brady, Godwin + Brown + Brady… but I would keep Brown as the core of those double stacks.
Meanwhile the most popular Eagles pass catcher on either site tonight isn’t even a WR, it’s Zach Ertz – with Dallas Goedert ruled out tonight, Ertz is the 3rd highest owned flex play on both DK and FD behind Brady and Jalen Hurts. Hurts to Ertz has a certain ring to it. It isn’t just the Goedert news that is driving Ertz’s ownership though. HE IS CHEAAAAP tonight. $3,200 in the Flex on DK, $6,500 on FD. I get it, it is tough to look away from that price when you are building an otherwised high priced lineup and for what it’s worth – I do think Zach Ertz is a good play tonight. But find a way to get Devonta Smith in your lineup. Smith is the clear #1 WR target for Jalen Hurts and he is AWESOME – and at 26% average ownership (aka half of Zach Ertz ownership) Smith is simply a variance play off of the ultra chalky Zach Erts. Smith is the 9th highest owned player on the sites and over the last 3 weeks he has been targetd 24 times, caught 17 balls and totaled 227 yards. Sure he hasn’t scored a TD since week 1 but against this terrible Tampa Bay Secondary, I will find a way to have a lot of Smith in my DK lineups.
The last ownership points that I think need to be made center mainly around dart throws, and Miles Sanders. Even Miles Sanders (who has barely been a part of the offensive plan for 5 weeks) is seeing close to 20% ownership, when we all know – ya can’t run on the Bucs. Sanders who has yet to crack 50 yards recieving this season and if he can’t run on the Bucs – how is he going to ‘get there” for you?Well 20% of the DFS players tonight think he will. Sure, of course he could – this is the NFL – but is it likely? I don’t know, but what I do know is that there are a whole lot of players that think they are being “different’ by playing the Eagles’ running back against a defense that (again) ‘ya know ya can’t run on’. So how am I going to try and get different tonight? I actually don’t know. I do know that Leondard Fournette at just a little OVER 20% ownership has a great matchup tonight and in my opinion the better running back play, but around $1,200 more than Sanders keep in mind.
The problem with both of these teams is – we know where the ball is going to go 90% of the time and as we just spoke about – those high opportunity guys are the highest owned and highest priced plays on the slate. So I think the best thing I can do is share the pool of Low Owned, Cheap, Dart Throws that I am eyeing tonight….
Giovanni Bernard – Buccaneers RB
Jalen Reagor – Eagles WR
Cameron Brate – Buccaneers TE
Quez Watkins – Eagles WR
Kenneth Gainwell – Eagles RB
Ronald Jones – Buccaneers RB
Tyler Johnson – Buccaneers WR
OJ Howard – Buccaneers TE
Jack Stoll – Eagles TE
Greg Ward – Eagles WR
I tried to rank these guys as my favorite Dart Throws to the Dartiest of Dart Throws, but in general – slim pickens! However none of these guys are seeing a ton of ownership with only Bernard and Brate over 10% and all of these guys are cheap and can really fill a lineup nicely. Use them wisely to help fit as many studs as possible in. The sneakiest of plays here (I think) is Jack Stoll who if Zach Ertz is playing the Dallas Goedert role than Stoll could be playing the Zach Ertz role tonight, so keep an eye on him.
Here is a Draft Kings Bucaneers focused lineup I built and am playing:
Captain: Tom Brady Flex: Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Giovanni Bernard, Zach Ertz, Quez Watkins
What I am trying to do here is stack Brady with pass catchers first with Evans and Brown. Then add on a third with Bernard, but you can also go down to Cameron Brate here. Then I am using Cheap Zach Ertz which leaves me money to take a dart on Quez Watkins, who if he does what he did last week 3 for 48, is all I really need at the cheap price. If you go down from Bernard to Brate, you could go up from Watkins to Jalen Reagor – but I am happy where this lineup sits. This lineup leaves $200 left for salary and I can use it to clone and swap Evans for Godwin. I’d then look to try and upgrade Bernard to maybe Fournette if I can find some savings elsewhere.
Here is a Draft Kings Eagle’s focused lineup I built and am playing:
Captain: Jaylen Hurts Flex: Devonta Smith, Zach Ertz, Jack Stoll, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans
Again here I am trying to layer Jaylen Hurts with his two top most likely targets and I am testing my theory that Cheap Jack Stoll will be TE2 and involved. This allows me to double stack both Evans and Godwin which I think will be different in Eagles stacks. However if you don’t like Stoll I get it, swap Godwin or Evans for Brown and you can then upgrade Stoll to Kenneth Gainwell or Ronald Jones or OJ Howard another Dart Throw I mentioned.
Lastly here is a mix match lineup that contains both Brady And Hurts:
Captain: Jaylen Hurts Flex: Tom Brady, Leondard Fournette, Zach Ertz, Jake Elliot, Ryan Succop
Now I don’t ever reccomend double stacking Kickers – but a lot of people do this. So in this lineup what I am saying is that the offenses have some success moving the ball but ultimately it’s a game of field goals. The variance here is stacking Brady with Fournette as his pass catcher here which I do not see a lot of players doing. It’s not a lineup that I am in love with but it’s one that has variance and you never know.
While I am not crazy about defenses tonight as I just think there will be to many points … I will say, if you are using the Eagles Defense in a few lineups – stack WR Jaylen Mickens with them in at least one. Mickens is their primary kick returner and in the off chance he runs one back, you can double your points stacking him with the DST. Just a pro tip. #Analysis
GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS!