You can find me on Twitter @DelRayBoston
Week 6 presents one of the most unique DFS Slates that I can remember where it isn’t just 1 injury that is swaying the field in regards to ownership in tournaments. It is multiple and while there is one most notable with Kareem Hunt, the way ownership trends are going right now it seems like more and more of the “field” is following the injury news closer as the week goes on. Here is what I mean:
Kareem Hunt – 51% Ownership: Why? Nick Chubb is out, Browns are a run first offense, Hunt is GOOD. Easy to figure out and let the Cardinals stingy rush defense be damned.
Khalil Herbert – 31% Ownerhship: Why? He is the last man standing in the Bears Backfield, he is CHEAP and we always like to play running backs against Green Bay.
Darrel Williams – 20% Ownership: Why? He is the last man standing in the Chiefs Backfield in the game with Highest Expected point total as the Chiefs play the Washington Football Team.
How do you use this knowlege to your advantage?
If you believe in these Chalk Running Backs – play them. Chalk Hit rates this season have been suprisingly high (meaning how often the Chalk pays off with their fantasy score) but there is a simple approach to off setting chalk running backs – play the pass catchers. In this case, here is a few stack examples for each of the above 3 that help to offset chalk on the running backs.
Browns vs Cardinals: Kyler Murray – Deandre Hokins – Odell Beckham JR – Donovan Peoples-Jones
This stack believe it or not has a combined ownership of 48% and the upside of the Murray – Hopkins combo, while banking on the need for Baker to throw more today makes this a great way to offset the Kareem Hunt chalk, if you believe that the Cardinals are able to shut down Cleveland’s run game. It is pricey however, so that is why I am looking at the very low owned and cheap Peoples-Jones to round it off.
Packers vs Bears: Justin Fields – Davante Adams – Darnell Mooney – Randall Cobb
Now this stack has a total combined ownership of 55% but the reason for that is Davante Adams is looking to be your highest owned wide reciever of the day today. So you are trading Chalk for Chalk, but I tend to lean more on the Packer’s #1 reciever than I do the unproven rookie running back of the Bears. In the above example you have the 1% owned Fields as QB as well as the 5% owned Mooney and 3% owned Cobb to offeset the chalk of Adams. I will tell you though, I think one of the reasons why Khalil Herbert is seeing so much ownership is the popular 2 man secondary stack of cheap Herbert and pricey Adams. I do like that mini stack as a secondary piece to lineups for what it’s worth.
Chiefs vs Football Team: Taylor Heineke – Tyreek Hill – Terry McLauren
Both Hill and McLauren are seeing 18+% ownership so again you are trading chalk for chalk, but unbelievably the Cheap Taylor Hieneke is seeing sub 10% ownership and for me (similar to using Adams in the Packers-Bears Game) I tend to lean more on the ability of Hill and McLauren to put up big games than I do Darrel Williams. This stack has a combined ownership of 48% so despite the high price tags of the receives you can use the rest of your lineup to gain more leverage.
Using ownership to your advantage can be beneficial to help you gain leverage but another way to do it is to build primary stacks on Games that aren’t seeing a ton of ownership overall and then include secondary stacks and one offs from games that are. For the most part you most popular games that are on the slate today are Baltimore/LA Chargers, Chiefs/Washington FT, Rams/Giants, Cardinals/Browns. But even in these expected high scoring popular games you can find low owned plays to build secondary stacks around. Here are some lineups that do just that:
QB: Justin Herbert (5% owned)
RB: Darrell Henderson (25% Owned)
RB: Austin Eckler (14% Owned)
WR: Keenan Allen (6% Owned)
WR: Marquise Brown (15% Owned)
WR: Kadarius Toney (10% Owned)
TE: Mark Andrews (21% Owned)
FL: Josh Gordon (.1% Owned)
DST: Detroit Lions (1% Owned)
What this lineup has going for it is first attacking the Ravens/Chargers Game and using the chalk plays in the game in Hollywood Brown, Mark Andrews and Austin Eckeler but pairing with the suprisingly low owned Justin Herbert – Keenan Allen stack. I am also getting pieces of other games that should be high scoring with Henderson of the Rams stacked with Toney of the Giants and rounding them off with a cheap dart throw on Gordon in that Chiefs/Football team game. The Lions are at home and have been pretty good in their secondary so maybe they get a forced fumble and interception today at an extremely cheap price.
QB: Kyler Murray (5% Owned)
RB: Antonio Gibson (7% Owned)
RB: Chubba Hubbard (15% Owned)
WR: Deandre Hopkins (7% Owned)
WR: O’dell Beckham Jr (8% Owned)
WR: MeCole Hardman (1% Owned)
TE: Ricky Seals-Jones (30% Owned)
FL: DJ Moore (20% Owned)
Here I am attacking the Cardinals/Browns and avoding the Kareem Hunt chalk – instead focusing on the surprising low owned Kyler Murray and pairing him with two other core pieces of the game that are seeing no ownership in Hopkins and Beckham. I am also getting pieces of the Chiefs/Football Team game with low owned Antonio Gibson and Mecole Hardman which allows me to eat the chalk on Ricky Seals-Jones and grab Chubba Hubbard and DJ Moore in the flex as a Panthers double stack. Yes these two guys are seeing a lot of ownership but with no McCaffery on the field, I will eat the Panthers Chalk here for updside.
QB: Carson Wentz (2% Owned)
RB: Jonathan Taylor (11% Owned)
RB: Joe Mixon (14% Owned)
WR: Michael Pittman (17% Owned)
WR: Brandin Cooks (9% Owned)
WR: Cooper Kupp (24% Owned)
TE: Evan Engram (1% Owned)
FL: Darrell Henderson (25% Owned)
DST: Panthers (5% Owned)
Here I am starting off on a game that isn’t seeing a ton of overall attention in the Colts/Texans. Yes Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman are popular today but Wentz and Cooks are not so they make the perfect balanced game stack. Then I am attacking the Rams/Giants as a secondary stack eating the chalk on Cooper Kupp and Darrell Henderson and pairing with the low owned Engram who should be plenty involved today. This also allows me to pay up for Joe Mixon in a great matchup against the Lions and at DST with the Panthers.
So there are ways to attack the slate and balance the chalk plays with low owned upside plays.
The reality of today’s slate is that with so much value at the Running Back Position, it will be very easy to fit in the cheap chalk RBs and load up with Studs at Wide Reciever and even Tight End. I wouldn’t be shocked if the winning lineup today looks a lot like that.
My biggest strategy is to attack the game that should see the highest score as I did above with the lineups and look for secondary stacks and one offs to finish my lineups. I’ll give you one more lineup that I am playing that is using this strategy:
QB: Lamar Jackson (top owned QB)
RB: Kalil Herbert
RB: Deandre Swift
WR: Devonate Adams (top owned WR)
WR: Keenan Allen
WR: Ja’mar Chase
TE: Hunter Henry
FL: Ricky Seals-Jones (second highest owned TE)
Here I am attacking the Ravens/Chargers by stacking Lamar with Keenan Allen. I’m also stacking the Lions/Bengals as a secondary piece with Swift and Chase. I’m eating the chalk of Devonte Adams and offsetting with a low owned Hunter Henry in that Patriots/Cowboys game that is being completely overlooked by the DFS field today. Lastly a piece of the Chiefs/Football Team game with Seals-Jones. I am using the Cardinals DST as leverage against the many Kareem Hunt plays I am assuming I will be up against in tournaments.
Think Differently, Stack Well, Gain Leverage where you are able and CASH!
GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS!