You can find me on Twitter @DelRayBoston
The Buffallo Bills look unstoppable. Let’s face facts. The way they played the Chiefs on both sides of the ball looked like a varsity squad squaring off a junior varsity squad – only this JV team had Patrick Mahomes under center. So the question is what will the Tennessee Titans do to slow down Josh Allen and the Bills AND does Tennessee have enough fire power to out duel a defense that held the Kansas City Chiefs to 20 points (ie; their lowest point total of the season thus far)?
The X Factor tonight will be Derek Henry. I know what you are saying – DUH?! – but the reason why Henry is the X Factor is more to do with what he will be able to open up for Ryan Tannehill in the passing game. Let’s face the facts, if the Bills are able to slow Derek Henry and the rushing game down and funnel the Titan’s defense to the pass, Tannehill and company better pack a lunch, or in this case a box dinner – because it will be a long night.
So how does this all relate to DFS? Well it has to do with your lineup construction more than anything else. I think in this game environment, building lineups around potential game scripts will be more relevant than perhaps in any DFS Showdown slate that we have seen this season. I personally will be steering away from Single Entry or 3 Entry Tournaments for that reason. Even if I build only 3 lineups, I am going to want to lean on the variance of large field tournments and hope that by building off of game scripts I can gain some leverage on the field. Let’s get into the teams and I can explain this further.
The Tennessee Titans
It really shouldn’t shock you that the two most popular Titans in tournaments tonight are Derrick Henry ($17,100 Captain, $11,400 Flex, $13,500 FD) and Ryan Tannehill ($14,700 Captain, $9,800 Flex, $12,000 FD) at 41% and 39% Flex Ownership respectively. This actually says to me that many players are finding a way to put both Henry & Tannehill in their lineups together. For me though, I don’t want to do this. Here is why. Let’s say you plug Henry & Tannehill in your lineup in the flex on DK. This leaves you with a remaining Salary of $23,900 and you still need to find a Captain. Plug Josh Allen in the Captain spot you are left with $11,000 or $3,700 per player in the flex. Impossible to do? No, but what I think the result will be a lot of similiar looking lineups and I am going to try and avoid it as much as possible. Will I have at least one lineup with Henry and Tannehill in it together my strategy is to seperate them as much as possible. Again telling a story with my lineup.
For instance if Henry runs wild tonight he will be most likely the most optimal Titan to play for the most Fantasy Points. Adversely if the Bills are able to stifle Henry at all, it will most likely be Tannehill or one of his pass catchers that will be the most optimal play. In other words, I see negative correlation for optimal points by playing both.
Now what if both Henry and the Passing Game go nuts and score 60 points in a shootout? Well that is why I’ll have one lineup with both in it – but I don’t see that necessarily being the case tonight.
So if you are playing Henry, what other Titans do you stack him with? I think you are safe stacking Henry with either AJ Brown ($11,700 Captain, $7,800 Flex, $10,500 FD) or Julio Jones ($9,900 Captain, $6,600 Flex, $10,000 FD). Jones by the way – TOO CHEAP as a Flex Play on DK. The reason I say one or the other is because if Henry takes over this game it is unlikely both will ‘get there’ in terms of Fantasy Points. Regarding AJ Brown, he is currently questionable with an illness. If he cannot go tonight I’d expect Chester Rogers ($6,600 Captain, $4,400 Flex, $5,500 FD) and/or Marcus Johnson ($2,100 Captain, $1,200 Flex, $4,000 FD) to see an uptick in usage and should Brown be out I don’t mind the double stack with either of these guys and Julio along with Henry. Rogers is Questionable tonight so if he can’t go, I’d lock in on Marcus Johnson for sure. In fact even if Brown suits up, it wouldn’t shock me to see either Rogers or Johnson see some looks – and due to that + their cheap price tags, I’ll have them in my player pool regardless..
(EDITORS NOTE – THE TITANS ANNOUNCED AJ BROWN WILL PLAY AT 5:15PM)
Adversely if I am making a Ryan Tannehill lineup, I am including as many of his pass cactchers as I can – Brown (if he goes), Julio, Rogers or Johnson and you can’t leave out the occaisional fantasy stud TE Anthony Firsker ($6,000 Captain, $4,000 Flex, $4,500 FD). I also don’t mind taking a dart throw on TE Mycole Pruitt ($900 Captain, $600 Flex, $3,500 FD) who caught a nice 14 yard TD pass last week, which perhaps opens the eyes of the Titans for him.
(EDITORS NOTE, THE BELOW PERTAINS MAINLY IF BROWN WERE TO SIT, WHICH HE WILL NOT)
A couple other guys to mention that I think you could take a dart throw on if you are mass multi entering AND AJ Brown AND Chester Rogers sit – WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine who saw 8 Targets with both Brown and Jones out. He is $3,300 as a DK Flex, $5,000 on FD. Also WR Josh Reynolds who saw only 1 target last week, but 9 in week 4 when both Brown and Julio were out. He is a cheap Flex Play on DK at $400 and $5,000. Reynolds I prefer of NWI, simply because I saw what he could do for 2 seasons on the Rams. Again if both Brown and Rogers sit, I don’t mind a deep dart throw on TE Geoff Swaim who saw a target last week too. Again Cheap Dart Throw Flex play on DK.
The Last thing to monitor for the Titans tonight is the situation with their Back Up Running Backs. Jeremy McNichols is questionable tonight. He has been Henry’s backup and has seen some work this season, annoyingly for Henry fantasy owners. If he can’t go the next man up would be Khari Blasingame, but he is questionable as well. That would leave Darryington Evans who the Titans elevated as a fullback – but, you guessed it, also questionable. So today the Titans elevated Tory Carter from their practice squad. If it ends up that McNichols, Blasingame and Evans all sit, Carter at only $200 for a Flex play on DK appeals to me as an end of the lineup salary saver in lineups that don’t include Henry. Outside from Carter, I don’t have a lot of interest in the backup running backs outside of McNichols if he plays.
The Buffalo Bills
The Bills should have little trouble moving the ball tonight against a Titans Defense allowing 264 Passing Yards per game and 112 Rushing Yards per game. However to the naked eye, the Titans have looked far worse than those stats say.
Consequently, my favorite Captain/MVP Tonight will be Josh Allen ($19,200 Captain, $12,800 Flex, $15,000 FD)… more so on FanDuel where the pricing is a little better but I will be over weight on Allen at Captain on DK tonight. Why not, right? Stefon Diggs ($14,400 Captain, $9,600 Flex, $11,000 FD) is due for his monster performance and why not tonight against the struggling Titans Defense. Love the opportunity for Diggs to smash tonight. I also think I was proven right last week when I reccomended the stack with Emmanuel Sanders ($12,900 Captain, $8,600 Flex, $9,500 FD). Tough to replicate a two TD game but, not tough to imagine both Diggs and Sanders finding pay dirt. I also have to give another nod to the last time I wrote about the Bills, but how can you not find a roster space for TE Dawson Knox ($11,400 Captain, $7,600 Flex, $9,000 FD) with a TD or more in the last 4 games, the Bills are finding a way to get Knox the ball and even with the Titans being decent against tight ends, I like Knox to continue his hot streak.
I think the odd man out this season has been Cole Beasley ($8,100 Captain, $5,400 Flex, $6,500 FD) and while I love what he brings to the table, the underneath routes that he specializes in haven’t had the same need in most of the Bill’s games this season. I don’t really see that changing tonight against the Titans – but if you are Mass Multi-Entering, I think you have to have Cole Beasley in your player pool. Anything can happen in the NFL keep in mind.
I will also be including the running backs in my Bills stacks. It just has seemed like the Bills have found a good game plan of incorporating the run. Zack Moss ($10,500 Captain, $7,000 Flex, $9,000 FD) has looked tremendous thus far, but to his credit – so has Devin Singletary ($6,900 Captain, $4,600 Flex, $7,500 FD). The Titans are giving me no fear for the Bill’s running game and who knows maybe one of these guys fall in the endzone a couple times. I particularly love the Flex price on DK for Singletary.
I don’t know how much deeper you need to go with the Bills regarding dart throws but if I were to pick two, it would be Gabriel Davis ($2,000 Flex on DK) who is a field stretcher and Isiah McKenzie ($200 Flex on DK) who I really like stacked with the Buffalo Defense, in the event any kick returns come back. You can also stack Cole Beasley with the Defense for the same reason – double the points on Kick Returns.
My strategy with the Bills will be to stack Allen with either Diggs or Sanders plus Knox and a running back. If you mix and match, one of your lineups should be in a good position to cash. I know this sounds fairly simple but the Bills run more offensive plays than any other team even in Neutral Game Scripts, so I am building to try and maximize my touchdown potential with the Bills tonight. I am not as worried about ownership on the Bills as I am with Titans, only because I think the potential for the most raw Fantasy Points will come from the Bills’ side and you will need the Raw Points to Cash. #Analysis.
I think the Buffalo Defense will be popular tonight – but now that we know AJ Brown will play, I am not as high on them. I am OK using them a DK Flex at $4,800 but I’ll be underweight. On the off chance that the Titans shut the Bill’s down, if you are mass multi-entering, I’d recomend rostering at least one lineup with the Titans Defense $3,600 Flex on DK – but please don’t use a Defense at Captain tonight … I just don’t think the savings are there or the value.
Lastly, I think Titans Kicker Randy Bullock should be in your player pool and I don’t even mind him in at least one lineup at Captain or MVP – $4,800 Captain, $3,200 Flex $7,000 FD. I am not as high on Tyler Bass because I don’t see the Bill’s needing many field goal attempts but he is ok as a flex play on DK at $3,400. For what it’s worth, Bass has a better leg. If you play a lineup with the Titan’s defense in it I don’t mind pairing with Bass.
GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS