You can find me on Twitter @DelRayBoston
When I think about tonight’s matchup between the Browns and Broncos, I am hearing the echo of former Celtic’s Coach John Calipari’s famous post game press conference as it pertains to the Browns: Baker Mayfield ain’t walkin’ through that door, Nick Chubb ain’t walkin’ through that door, Kareem Hunt ain’t walkin’ through that door … and it gets worse. Odell is facing an “uphill battle” to play and on top of that 60% of the Browns Defense are all questionable tonight – most notably Jadeveon Clowney. YIKES!
I already expected this to be a fairly low scoring game, but now I think all bets are off. Considering there are a lot of question marks and not a lot of answers on the Brown’s side of the ball this article is going to mainly pertaining to Ownership and Leverage Plays as well as touch on Pricing as it pertains to value. In between that I’ll be mentioning some picks that I think you should be looking at. Let’s start with the Browns.
Easily the highest owned Brown tonight, somewhat surprisingly is Case Keenum at 65% ownership in the Flex and 18% ownership as Captain/MVP. Yes, Case Keenum is starting tonight for the Cleveland Browns. In fact, Keenum is the highest owned Brown by 30% …. wow. The plus on Keenum in my opinion is that he is not afraid to push the ball down the field and throw deep. The minus on Keenum is that over the last 22 months he’s played very little snaps and on top of that, this is first time starting as a Brown – and without some core weapons mind you. But let me turn you onto something that should make you jump especially if you are playing on FanDuel. DK priced Keenum correctly as a starting QB at $9,800 in the Flex and $14,100 at Captain – BUT FANDUEL DID NOT and Keenum is only $5,000! He has to be a lock on that sight no matter the ownership. Where or When have you ever seen a Starting QB that cheap on FanDuel?
I would normally be saying with their starting running backs out, Cleveland will need to lean on their defense – but given that half their defensive starters potentially out tonight too … it’s got to be Keenum time! So if you are playing Keenum tonight, the good news is it looks like Jarvis Landry will be back. Landry looks to be coming in at 30% ownership which sounds high BUT believe it or not he is looking to be the 6th highest owned play and since I told you that Keenum is the only Brown with more ownership – yes do the math 4 Broncos are more owned than Landry tonight in the Flex. So I say play Landry at the Ownership discount and stack him with Keenum. He also makes a contrarian 12% owned Captain or MVP. Here’s the other thing about Jarvis – TOO CHEAP as a Flex on DK – only $6,600! Also Landry is $9,900 Captain, $10,000 FD. Are you kidding me? $6,600 for a guy who should be peppered with targets all night?
If indeed Odell Sits, which it is sounding like he will – the public doesn’t seem to know or care about it as both Donovan Peoples-Jones and Rashad “Hollywood” Higgins are sub 20% owned. DPJ at 18% and Higgins at 12% … one of or both of these guys will be targeted deep tonight by Keenum and I will be mixing and matching with my Landry-Keenum Stacks. DPJ is a $6,400 Flex, $9,600 Captain on DK and $8,500 FD. I LOVE THE PRICING ON HIGGINS ESPECIALLY THOUGH – $3,600 Flex, $5,400 Captain on DK, $7,500 FD. If O’Dell sits, I think these guys become a priority.
Another guy to look to if Odell sits I think is TE David Njoku under 15% owned largely becuase of the red 7th in matchup on DK, I believe, but I could see Keenum relying on his tight ends should Denver’s pass rush give him fits. So don’t forget dart throws on Austin Hooper and you can even take a deep deep, even deeper dart throw on Harrison Bryant. Hooper and Bryant are coming in under 5% owned and they are cheap end of the lineup fillers if you are mass multi-entering.
So let’s talk Cleveland Running Backs! D’Ernest Johnson is coming in slightly higher owned than Jarvis at 32% but here’s the thing … Draft Kings didn’t adjust his price for his expected opportunity because both Chubb and Hunt were officially ruled out AFTER Sunday Night. Should it be Johnson’s show – TOO CHEAP AT ONLY $4,600 as Flex on DK! Only $6,900 at Captain! Who knows the Browns could just keep the same game plan and rely on the run tonight… Johnson is too cheap to not play on DK I’m sorry… Then theree is Demetric Felton who is expected to be the Hunt to Johnson’s Chubb tonight. Only 12% Owned and somehow $500 more than Johnson on DK at $5,000 in the Flex. Me thinks DK expects the Browns to be playing from behind… I think you can rotate both these guys in your lineups if you are mass multi-entering. I think both see opportunities tonight, but I love the price on Johnson on DK.
For me, in Browns stacks, I will also have a heavy dose of Kicker Chase McLaughlin. Do I think the Browns win the game? Who knows, but do I think the Broncos completely shut them down either – no. I do see a lot of drives stalling and I am banking on McLaughlin having enough Field Goal attempts to be worthy of a more serious look at Kicker. And I should mention – if you are multi-entering, I think at least one lineup with the Browns Defense isn’t a terrible idea. 2021 NFL has surprised us thus far… you never know.
From an injury standpoint the Broncos have had their fair share… but they seemed to have figured most of it out. Teddy Bridgwater is second only to Keenum in regards to ownership tonight and I think that has a lot to do with the Broncos being favored. Here’s the thing – the Broncos are CHALK tonight. If you read what I wrote about the Browns and low ownership on many of the expected Browns starters, it’s because the Broncos are taking up the rest of it… honestly, I don’t need to go into the nitty gritty. So here is how I rank Bridgewater’s likely targets to stack with:
Courtland Sutton – the Clear #1, if Cleveland’s Defense is down as bad as it sounds – he should eat.
Tim Patrick – should be right there with Sutton for looks and I bet he scores a TD Tonight
Noah Fant – the Browns have been solid against TEs this season, but if we have a lot of defensive starters out I think Fant may have a shot at a decent game
All of these guys are chalky and playing them together as a 3 man will be popular. So my strategy is to a). Build Lineups with Bridgewater stacked with either Sutton or Patrick and not both. Then build around that. Yes you can add Fant for a 3 man, but I also have my eye on WR3 Kendall Hinton who is super cheap on DK at $2,000 in the Flex and caught all 5 of his targets last week – he also happens to be only 3% owned. I don’t mind using Hinton over the chalky Fant in stacks with Bridgewater.
The Broncos aren’t hard to figure out and the best advice I can give you if you are mass multi-entering is to try and mix and match your stacks with Bridgewater and mix in the super low owned and cheap Hinton where you can. Additionally in Broncos Stacks I think you can mix and match Melvin Gordon and Javante Williams since both seem to be 50/50ing the Backfield. On DK you are only saving $400 if you go Williams over Gordon but on FanDuel you are saving a full $1,000. Gordon is the more popular play, so you also get a ownership discount on Williams in lineups with him in it. My strategy here is to have enough of both guys in my lineups in the event one or the other goes off…. #Analysis
The Broncos Defense is getting a ton of ownership as well, so don’t think you are being sneaky by captainining them … but, I mean, it’s Case Keenum at QB for the Browns after all so anything could happen. They are more of a flex play for me. Same for kicker Brandon McManus who I like in stacks that are heavy on Browns players, which tell the story that the Browns are ahead and McManus is there to keep pace.
This could be an ugly one so GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS!