You Can Find Me on Twitter @DelRayBoston
Tonight’s showdown between the Colts and Niners is all about UPSIDE for me. This game has the “potential” to being a low scoring affair – and yes, there are a lot of great plays here but the reality is both of these defenses have been hit or miss at best and especially in the case of the 49ers – underwhelming. However either could turn it on at the drop of a hat as they have the players to do so … So as I am building my lineups tonight I will be looking to make plays with the MOST upside possible and trying to limit the dart throws. In the event that this game is somewhat low scoring I want as much of those raw points as I can.
So believe it or not, the first thing I want to focus on is the Kickers. Joey Slye for the 49ers and Michael Badgley for the Colts. Kickers are primarily a DK play for me because I just can’t see paying the high prices FanDuel puts them at. Tonight will be much of the same with Slye $4,400 at Flex, $6,600 Captain and $9,500 on FD while Badgley is $4,200 at Flex, $6,300 Captain and $9,000 on FD. However, I have an inkling that you will want to have a decent share of the kicking game for both teams so probably for the first time ever, I’m recommending using them in stacks with your offensive pieces. I favor Slye over Badgley only because, even with Jimmy G back, I think the 49ers play from behind for a good part of this game – but again, don’t sleep on kickers in this game tonight.
This will actually lead me to the Defenses, where even though I do feel this may be a low scoring game, I am not as high on as I am the kickers. First the Colts are just playing solid football all around and Carson Wentz has looked pretty solid. Anything can happen yes, but I don’t see the turnover game being very strong for the 49ers. On the other side, with Jimmy G back under center it wipes away the potential for the turnovers and loss of downs that rookie Trey Lance had been causing. So if I am playing defenses, I am not playing them as I traditionally would and even in saying that, I am likely to maybe have one lineup only with each. Of the two, I am more high on the Colts at $5,400 on DK but I’m not excited about the play.
OK – on to the Good Stuff right? Well, kinda…
My favorite Colts captain/MVP tonight is Jonathan Taylor ($16,500 Captain, $11,000 Flex, $15,000 FD). I think the Colts lean on Taylor tonight, facing a 49ers defense allowing over 110 yards per game on the ground. Part of this is due to thinking that the Colts have a lead for most of this game, but from a point per dollar perspective I think Taylor has the highest upside of any Colt player. If I am not using Taylor at Captain/MVP, he will also be my highest owned flex play of the night.
If I am not using JT in the top spot, you may think I’d be looking at Carson Wentz ($15,300 Captain, $10,200 Flex, $14,000 FD) but I am not as high on Wentz here. Part of that is the lack of likely targets he is throwing too. With TY Hilton and Paris Campbell both officially ruled out, the likely target tree diminishes. So instead in lineups without JT in the top spot, I am actually looking to save a bit of salary and use Michael Pittman Jr ($13,200, $8,800 Flex, $12,000 FD) or Zach Pascal ($9,300 Captain, $6,200 Flex, $10,000 FD) or take a shot on the big man TE Mo Alley-Cox ($7,800 Captain, $5,200 Flex, $7,500 FD) and pair with Wentz in the flex. The reality is one of these guys could go off and while it can help Wentz, it doesn’t necessarily mean the Wentz will ‘get there’ as well. So I like the upside of using the passcatchers at the top. Pittman should see the volume with Hilton off the field, Pascal has shown 2 touchdown upside already this season and Cox – well he is the X in the equation. His size could take over any game if the Colts allowed him to …
If you are looking for salary savers I think you’d have to qualify Colts salary savers as deep dart throws… I’d rank them like this: Jack Doyle (TE), Nyheim Hines (RB), Marlon Mack (RB), Ashton Dulin (WR). All of them qualify as cheap, end of the lineup, darts – but honestly I think I’d rather play the Kicker Badgley or the Colts D in stacks over them… If you think the game goes differently than I do and it is the Niners that are in command, then I think you’ll want to have shares of Hines ($8,400 Captain, $5,600 Flex, $8,000 FD).
My favorite Captain/MVP for the 49ers may surprise you, based on what I just wrote… believe it or not, it’s RB Eli Mitchell ($12,300 Captain, $8,200 Flex, $11,000 FD). I don’t think a lot of players will look to Mitchell who is in line to lead this backfield tonight and I think it is because of the little red 3 on DK saying it is a bad matchup. But if you look under the hood, the Colts are allowing nearly identical yardage to opposing running games as are the 49ers – 110+ and we know hat the 49ers are a run first offense. Plus with Jimmy G back, there should be a much more even division of run/pass – especially with play action – that I can think only helps Mitchell’s chances at a good to great game.
If I not rostering Mitchell at the top, you may again think I’d be looking at Jimmy Garoppolo ($15,900 Captain, $10,600 Flex, $14,500 FD) but much like Wentz, I am much more interested in the pass catchers. Primarily Deebo Samuel ($14,400 Captain, $9,600 Flex, $13,000 FD) who has shown to be a bit matchup proof and only takes a giant leap forward with Jimmy G back in the lineup… or believe it or not I’m looking at Brandon Aiyuk ($10,500 Captain, $7,000 Flex, $8,500) who admittedly is probably the Sleeper play of the night, but without George Kittle on the field and two weeks of practice, I have to wonder if the 49ers will look to the shifty Aiyuk in Kittle’s absence. I of course will stack Jimmy G with either or both of these guys, but like with the Colts I prefer the pass catchers up top to the QB.
Regarding dart throws on the SF side of things, I think you have more options and a couple with potential upside. I’ll rank them like this: RB Trey Sermon, TE Ross Dwelley, WR Mohammed Sanu, WR Trent Sherfield, RB Jaymycal Hasty, RB/FB Kyle Juszczyk. With Mitchell back and Sermon being shaky, he really could only be used in a change of pace way – but in the event that he is more involved I think having him in your player pool is smart. I mention Hasty here again a dart throw to keep in your player pool and throw in your A lineup if you are mass multi entering in the event something happens to Mitchell, Sermon or both … you’ll look like the smart one with 1 Hasty lineup. In lineups without Aiyuk, I don’t mind taking shots on Ross Dwelley who could end up getting a share of Kittle’s vacated targets, you know ’cause he is a Tight End #Analysis. The deeper dart throws are Sanu, Sherfield and Juszczyk. Sanu saw a handful of targets from Trey Lance and as the Veteran WR3 tonight he could see the same from Handsome Jimmy (George Kittle’s words, not mine). Sherfield stepped up when there was no one else to turn too and in 4 wide sets, he should be on the field. Worth keeping him in your player pool as you build. And Kyle Juzczyk the Fullback. Look, TD Pass/Goal Line Dive to Juszcyck in Prime Time is a thing … look it up. I’m getting ahead of it by mentioning.
The thing is, at the time of this writing Sermon, Dwelley, Sanu, Sherfield, Juszczyck – they are seeing NO OWNERSHIP AT ALL and with the exception of Sermon all are cheap cheap. There is way more interest in Nyheim Hines and Marlon Mack in this game than these guys. For me though, I lean on what I believe will happen and that is the Colts go out ahead for most of this game and the Niners have to find a way to scratch and claw back …. so that makes any of those guys viable as end of the lineup dart throws for me. Could I be wrong and the Niners dominate? Anything can happen. That’s just my take.
GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS!