Week 7 DFS: Bye-Maggedon Part 1- Value Plays, Ownership Trends, Smash Stacks – Real Deal Fantasy HQ

You can find me on Twitter @DelRayBoston

Week 7 DFS has so much to play for. Great games to target, great value plays to target and smash spots that you just can’t ignore. Let’s get right into it with some of my top values on the slate.

FIrst, if you watched either our DFS Values show or our DFS Stacks show on YouTube this weekend, you know who my absolute favorite play this week is based on value: CALVIN RIDLEY on DRAFT KINGS. ONLY $6,600 for his return to the field and he gets to play the Dolphins. I highly doubt you will ever see Calvin Ridley that cheap AGAIN! PLAY HIM! Incidentally if you start your build with a Ridley – Matt Ryan stack, your average player remaining cost is over $5,300. LOVE THIS! Ryan himself has tremendous value at only $5,700 on DK.

CHRIS GODWIN is expected to see an uptick in usage with Antonio Brown out today AND his ownership is showing that the public is with the sentiment as he looks to be the highest owned WR on DK & FD – but neither site has accounted for this regarding salary. $5,900 on DK and $6,700 on FD. What I really like about Godwin’s ownership however is it is driving Mike Evan’s Ownership down – UNDER 7% owned on both sites! Evans is more expensive than Godwin, but double stacking both with TOM BRADY is a smart play today against Chicago where both Brady and Evan’s low ownership will offset Godwin’s high ownership and give your lineup tons of upside as well.

Miles Sanders has had a rough season thus far. However the Eagle’s have come out this week and stated that they need to get back to basics and run the ball. However Coach speak does not always equate to salary peak in DFS and that is so true with Sanders today. Only $5,100 on DK and $5,900 on FD. Sanders looks to be the 5th highest owned running back today, but I will be taking a shot and leaning on what the Eagles have said. The Raiders haven’t exactly been a stellar defense against the run and dollars to donuts their game plan will be more to stop Jaylen Hurts than it will be Sanders. I like it.

Jaylen Waddle should once again lead the Dolphins in targets with Davante Parker “facing an uphill battle to play” and WIl Fuller on IR. For a guy who could be the entire offense of a team desperate for a win and playing against the 28th ranked team against wide receivers in the Falcons, his price sure isn’t showing it. $5,600 on DK and $5,900 on FD. Love this price and using Waddle as a run back in the previously mentioned Ryan-Ridley stack leaves you over $6,500 per player remaining on FD. Love that.

MAC JONES a starting quarterback for the New England Patriots in a division game against the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets at only $5,300 on DK? Wow. Do I expect Jones to have a 30+ Fantasy Point Day? No, but at next to no ownership and cheap pieces to pair him with like Kendrick Bourne or Jacoby Meyers or even Hunter Henry at TE… Too low ownership and too cheap prices to ignore. The Patriots are on my list.

On the Other side of that game Jet’s Running Back – Michael Carter – is probably their most dynamic playmaker and at only $4,800 on DK … I think he is certainly a great Flex Play. The Patriots are known for taking away a team’s best offensive weapons and in this case I think the Patriots will try to Shut Down Zack Wilson and his pass catchers – namely Jamison Crowder and Corey Dillon – which could leave some running lanes for Carter to expoit. Again for a flex play, $4,800 and no ownership sounds pretty good to me.

Devonta Freeman is expected to lead the backfield today for the Ravens and at only $4,400 on DK I think the Draft Kings gods still think he is on the practice squad. Do we know exactly how the Raven’s backfield will shake out? NO. Do I think Devonta Freeman could have a good game and possibly a rushing score against the Bengals? Yes. $4,400 for the starting running back in Baltimore? Yes Please.

Your top 3 owned Tight Ends today are all values, so ownership aside, let’s talk Tight Ends: Dallas Goedert looks to be the highest owned TE today on DK and without Zach Ertz on the field is expected to see a huge bump in target share. You’d think that may effect his prices but you’d be wrong … $4,600 on DK, $5,900 on FD. Love the prices. Mike Gesicki looks to be the highest owned TE on FanDuel and coming off a massive week 6, why not. Additionally – he plays the Falcons today. At $6,000 on FanDuel he is just at the borderline for Value but I love the price on DK – $4,700. Then we have Ricky Seals-Jones who came through last week for us and got a price bump on DK, of $200 – hardly a bump. $3,700 on DK in a matchup against Green Bay where it is expected the FT will be playing from behind and throwing…. all day man, all day. I should also mention Zach Ertz making his Cardinals debut today against the Texans. Priced up a bit on FD at $5,300 but love the $3,900 price on DK.

And as long as Travis Kelce remains under $8,000 on DK … you should be playing Travis Kelce. Take advantage now because it won’t be long until THOR is over $8,000 and you may be kicking yourself later if you don’t.

Lastly – The Cardinals DST taking on the Houston Texans at only $3,100 is my value DST of the week by a long Texas mile.

SMASHING STACKS

The Chiefs – Titans game should be a wild high scoring affair and while the pricing is reflecting that I love getting a pieces of this game in my stacks. Derrick Henry is the most expensive Running Back. Patrick Mahomes is the most expensive Quarterback. Tyreek Hill is the second most expensive WR… you get the point. I love the primary stack of Patrick Mahomes – Derrick Henry – AJ Brown today. I also love the secondary stack of Derrick Henry – Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce today. I also love the Ryan Tannehill – Derrick Henry – AJ Brown – MeCole Hardman stack today. There are a lot of ways to attack this game and for me, I am going to try and find a way to get pieces of it in my lineups as much as I can. It could be one for the record books.

I am wiling to roll the dice one more time on Sam Darnold today against the Giants. Mainly because DJ Moore is coming in criminally under owned at sub 8% and while everyone is chasing Chubba Hubbard at a value cost, I will take a shot on the passing game. Another reason why I like this stack to build around is that Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton will be likely the Giants’ 1a 1b options for offense and neither are pricey or seeing any sort of ownership. Slayton particularly. Incidentally, I also like the Giants DST at only $2,500 on DK too … you know in case Darnold continues to do Darnold things.

The Raiders-Eagles game is also one that interests me. Yes Dallas Goedert will be popular today. Yes Miles Sanders is cheap today. However, the Raiders looked GREAT last week and no one is looking at Derick Carr and Henry Ruggs, even after the stellar game that they had in Week 6. Additionally Josh Jacobs while priced aggressively is being overlooked too. The Raiders are favored and when that happens I like playing Jacobs. But a Carr – Ruggs mini stack does as well. On the flipside, for all the hype that Jaylen Hurts has gotten this week for 5 straight weeks of 20+ fantasy points, neither his ownership or price is showing it. I feel like this could be a Devonta Smith breakout in the making with so much attention being paid on Goedert. Hurts-Smith-Ruggs, Carr-Ruggs-Goedert, Carr-Ruggs-Smith… you’ll see those stacks in my lineups today.

Aaron Rogers is also being a bit overlooked against the Bears. I think that is because the most likely stack with Rogers is Devonte Adams who is the most expensive wide receiver today and that is likely holding people away from Rogers. However in a very win-able match-up for the Packers don’t sleep on AR. Rogers-Adams-Hockenson? In actuality the Packers are one stack that I don’t think you need a run back on. I like Rogers-Aaron Jones-Devonte Adams as a low owned stack with TONS of upside. Other peices from this game you can mix and match – Add Robert Tonyon who certainly is over due for a score. And I also don’t mind a flex play on Randall Cobb or even AJ Dillon who has become much more involved in recent weeks. Don’t sleep on the Packers today is all I am really saying… If I am playing a Washington FT player as a run back it is Antonio Gibson (if he plays), Terry McLauren, JD McKissic (who I really like today even if Gibson plays) or Ricky Seals-Jones.

And don’t sleep on the RAMS either. Darrell Henderson is gaining a lot of ownership in a matchup against the Lions and their league worst rushing defense. I get it and yea, I love it. However it is suppressing ownership on Mathew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. I think you can take advantage of that and even run the stack back with D’Andre Swift of the Lions and/or TJ Hockenson… trust me, no one is playing Stafford-Kupp-Hockenson or Staffard-Kupp-Woods-Swift and I think that could work in your favor. Grabbing pieces of this game as a secondary stack make a lot of sense to me and I even don’t mind just a stack of the Rams like Stafford – Henderson-Kupp with no run back… also Tyler Higbee will be in this game. Just wanted to remind you since Stafford looks to have forgotten him recently.

Lastly – you know I like the Matt RyanCalvin Ridley stack today, but don’t sleep on three manning it with Cordarrelle Patterson, only $6,300 on DK… the bye week may have had you forget how important he is to this offense. Never forget.

Honestly there is so much to like about values and stacks in Week 7. Mix and match. You’ll have fun.

GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS!!

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