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Yesterday, going into the 4PM games I was in the top 3 of a tournament. My winning were $7,100. Mathew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods my primary stack had performed as I had written they would. By 7pm, to say the least I didn’t win $7,100 and while I cashed I am embarrassed to say what I cashed comparatively. Why am I telling you this? I am telling you this because sometimes when you play enough DFS, you can lull yourself into a false set of security and forget about fundamentals that make a winning DFS Lineup and in my case here the fundamental I forgot – always have a late game hammer.
In showdowns you don’t have the luxury of a late game hammer but it brings me to another fundamental DFS strategy that I think we need to pay attention to, tonight. Creating Leverage in your lineups. Part of this is knowing ownership and using that to your advantage. Another part however in showdowns is finding values that have you believe (via whatever process you use) to have upside that other DFS players are overlooking. So a big part of this article today is going to focus on those plays. After that I will give my Captain and team strategies. The hope here is that you combine both pieces of the article and build a better lineup. And let’s all hope that by 9PM (Half Time) when you are up $7,100, you stay up $7,100 when the game is over.
VALUE WITH UPSIDE PLAYS
DEEJAY DALLAS – After logging several days this week of DNPs Alex Collins looks to be on track to play tonight – but the question remains what will his workload be like. The thing is last week when Collins left the game, DeeJay Dallas came in and quickly saw 5 targets. At $5,200 in the flex on DK and $9,000 on FD he isn’t the cheapest dart throw, but I like the upside here that it is possible Dallas is the first man up on change of pace and 3rd downs. Especially since we have seen him get targets already. Additionally at 13% ownership, versus Collins at 30% ownership he is a perfect sleeper to add to your lineups that don’t include Collins and gain some leverage. And if he sees another 5 targets and one of those happens to be a touchdown … you’ll be glad you took a shot.
Rashaad Penny – of the two Seahawks backs I am mentioning in this section, Penny is the deep dart throw – BUT – even though it looks like Collins will be active, the Seahawks are keeping Penny active as well and that is something we haven’t heard since 2019. If Collins is any way limited or doesn’t finish the game, it is possible the Seahawks see what they still have in Penny and you have to keep in mind the belief in him as a player is the reason why the Hawks have kept him on the roster as long as they have despite the plaguing injuries. At $2,600 in the flex on DK he is seeing a tick more ownership that DeeJay Dallas, but I suspect as we get closer to kickoff both Penny and Dallas’ ownership to drop once it is official that Collins is playing. I don’t think you can play Penny on FD at $10,000 however, unless at game time Collins is suddenly inactive. Then Penny goes from a Deep Dart Throw to a much stronger consideration.
Devine Ozigbo here is another deep dart throw but one that makes sense to mention. The Saint’s backup running back Tony Jones is out and as such the nabbed Ozigbo from the Jaguar’s practice squad. Look we know the Saint’s backfield is the Kamara show, but as a change of pace Tony Jones was seeing a handful of carries … if Ozigbo is slotted in for a similiar workload he is worth a look as an end of the lineup filler at $1,400 in the Flex on DK. No one is playing Ozigbo, believe me and you never know what could happen especially at running back, in prime time.
Alex Armah if it isn’t Ozigbo offering the change of pace for Kamara it will be Armah who logged 16 snaps against Washington last week. Rinse wash repeat what I just wrote about Ozigbo except for one thing – Armah is only $200 in the flex on DK. Deep Dart throw – yes, but at only $200 he doesn’t have to do much but his price tag sure can do a lot for your lineup…
Kenny Stills Stills saw 5 targets last week from Winston in that game against Washington and while it will likely hurt him if Tre’Quoan Smith does return, I don’t mind taking a dart throw on Stills who has been a proven route runner and speedster all throughout his career. Especially if you think the Saints will be trailing and that Jameis will be airing it out. At $1600 on DK in the Flex he isn’t the cheapest but with next to no ownership I think he has some upside to consider. How many times have you been burned by a Kenny Stills Touchdown in prime time … now is your chance to nab one. AND if Tre’Quan sits for another week – Stills becomes entirely more interesting, even on FanDuel at $5,500.
Penny Hart Hart has been playing the role of WR4 for the Seahawks and while he has only seen 3 targets over the last two weeks I find him interesting – especially if the Saints and Marshaun Latimore are able to contain either Metcalf or Lockett or both. Especially if you think the Seahawks will need to be airing it out tonight to play catchup, as I believe they will be, I like Penny Hart as a cheap low owned dart throw on DK. He is $900 on DK as a flex and $5,500 on FanDuel.
Ty Montgomery This is a play only if Tre’quan Smith sits but Montgomery has been in the game plan even if just running routes and collecting a few targets. But if Smith is out I think Montgomery comes back into play for me at only $800 on DK at the Flex. The thing is, Montgomery could easily serve as a backup/change of pace back as sure as he could serve as a WR4 and again if you think the Saints will be playing catchup and airing it out AND Tre’quan Smith sits, I think Montgomery makes for a great end of the lineup filler with some upside.
Freddie Swain the often overlooked WR3 on the Seahawks is in play tonight but he makes my list here as he is only looking at around 13% ownership and if the Saints are able to limit either Metcalf or Lockett I’d look to Swain to becoming much more involved. He isn’t a cheap dart throw at $2,000 in the Flex on DK and $6,000 on FD, he is more a don’t forget about Swain in your Geno Smith Stacks.
Captain/MVP and Strategy
My favorite Captain/MVP on the Saints tonight is Alvin Kamara ($19,200 Captain, $12,800 Flex, $16,000 FD) and it probably isn’t even close. He will be the most popular player on the slate tonight at both Flex and Captain/MVP so it isn’t a leverage play, it is a raw points play. The Seahawks rank 30th against running backs and are allowing OVER 140 yards on the ground… Tough to argue with what Kamara is bringing to the table tonight with double digit touches in 4 of 5 games this season and last game before the bye he got back to business with 8 targets too.
My strategy if I have Kamara in the top spot is to fill my lineup with Seahawks skill position players, Metcalf and/or Lockett, tight end Gerald Everett, a Seahawk running back and lastly Jameis Winston ($17,700 Captain, $11,800 Flex, $16,500 FD). The story I am telling here is that the Seahawks are doing enough to keep Kamara going and I want to collect the double catch points with Jameis. It is also saying that the two highest scoring fantasy plays on the Saints are Kamara and Winston which isn’t outside the realm.
I also don’t mind using the Saints Defense in stacks with Kamara tonight in place of a Seattle Running back (as I mentioned above as my preferred Kamara led lineup build). They are at home, rested from a bye week and playing the back up Seattle Quarterback. $5,800 in the flex on DK, I’ll have a few shares.
If I am not using Kamara in the Captain/MVP, I am using a pass catcher and pairing with Jameis. Winston will be the second highest owned player behind Kamara in the Flex or in the Captain/MVP spot, so I want to gain a measure of leverage by using one of his pass catchers in the top spot. My #1 here will be Tre’Quan Smith ($7,200 Captain, $4,800 Flex, $8,500 FD) who is coming in at a great price because he hasn’t played, but should be the #1 WR on the team if he plays. I also like Marquez Callaway ($12,900 Captain, $8,600 Flex, $10,500 FD) even if Smith is out there. Callaway finally showed his pre-season spectacularness last game against Washington and I’d look for Winston to build on that chemistry tonight. In lineups that I have Smith or Callaway in the top spot, and Winston in the Flex, I want to continue the build with one Seahawks stud – Metcalf, Lockett maybe a running back … but I also want to include another pass catcher for Winston. Here I like the tight ends, Adam Trautman ($2,700 Captain, $1,800 Flex, $5,500 FD) would be my first choice because of the price but also because he sees the most targets – but don’t forget Juwan Johnson ($3,300 Captain, $2,200 Flex, $7,000 FD) who has shown to have a nose for the endzone. This is also a fine place to use one of the Dart throws I highlighted earlier in the article.
(Editor’s Note – 5:15PM Tre’Quan Smith has been activated to play)
With so much uncertainty in the backfield for Seattle, my favorite Seahawk captain/mvp is Tyler Lockett ($13,500 Captain, $9,000 Flex, $11,500 FD). I do think the Saints will key in on DK Metcalf and while I believe in Metcalf more than I do any defense, I think Lockett will go severely under owned at Captain/MVP largely do to multiple down games in a row… but if the Seahawks are throwing to keep pace tonight, I like the chances of a Lockett Bounceback.
I will have DK Metcalf ($15,000 Captain, $10,000 Flex, $13,500 FD) at Captain/MVP in some lineups, but I like the savings Lockett gives me a lot. Either way, in Seahawks Stacks I am pairing the WR 1a and 1b with Geno Smith ($14,100 Captain, $11,800 Flex, $14,000 FD) in the flex. Now I want to point out, Smith has the rare honor of having a DK Captain and FD Salary nearly identical, which says to me I should play him at Captain but I do respect the Saints defense a lot and where Smith can throw INTs., the Wide Receivers can not and that is why I am more than OK with Smith in the Flex. In my Seahawks stack, where I can I am running them back with Kamara and Winston or both as I believe they will be the highest point totalers on the NO side and I’d finish the lineup with Freddie Swain and/or Penny Hart for some savings as another passing option for Geno in the lineup. I also will take a shot on the Seattle Tight Ends Gerald Everett ($6,600 Captain, $4,400 Flex, $6,000 FD) or Will Dissly ($5,100 Captain, $3,400 Flex, $6,500 FD). This is also a spot where a cheap pass catching running back like DeeJay Dallas would make sense to plug in.
The Seattle Defense ($2,800 Flex on DK) is also interesting to build around tonight as no one will expect them to come out at the Superdome – but they are playing Jameis Winston after all … I like using Alex Collins ($11,100 Captain, $7,400 Flex, $12,000 FD) at Captain in a lineup with the Seattle Defense and I think using Kamara here would be ok as well as Geno Smith and a Seattle Wide Receiver, as well as the Saints kicker Brian Johnson ($5,700 Captain, $3,800 Flex, $8,500 FD).
And lastly, if you think that the Seahawks will have issues moving the ball, have a few shares of Seahawks kicker Jason Meyers ($6,000 Captain, $4,000 Flex, $8,500 FD) in your Saints Stacks.
GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS!