Thursday Night Football – Packers Cardinals – Davante Adams at Home – DFS Showdown Strategy & Picks – Real Deal Fantasy HQ

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Oh what will the Packers do tonight? That is the overarching question. What do I mean? Well, if you haven’t already heard Davante Adam’s is in the Covid Protocal and he didn’t fly with the team to Arizona. What makes matters worse is, so is Alan Lazard. On top of that Marques Valdez-Scantling who had a chance to come off the IR is now also OUT tonight – and no surprise really, since he also hasn’t logged a practice in 3+ weeks too…

So now the question moves from “Oh what will the Packers do tonight?” to “Oh what will DFS players do with the Packers tonight?” Well first, I can tell you “Avoid Aaron Rogers” is NOT something DFS players are looking to do as Rogers looks to be the Highest Owned Flex Play on the Slate tonight. But another thing that you should expect in tournaments is CHALK Aaron Jones. Which signals to me that the DFS players think this will be a run heavy game for the Pack… I’m not entirely convinced though. With Adams, Lazard and MVS on the field, if I am the Cardinals I am stacking the box against the run and force Rogers to try and beat them with Equanimeous St Brown. But let’s get into it:

The Packers

The first question you may ask me is am I playing Aaron Rogers ($17,100 Captain, $11,400 Flex, $15,000 Flex). The answer is, a little. Currently he looks to be over 66% Owned in the Flex and that is a red flag for me. With Adams in, ok, but with his top 3 recievers out I am just concerned on his upside here. Sure he could throw 3 touchdown passes to Aaron Jones but does that make him the upside play in that equation or is it Jones, who likely handled a lot of the work to get the Packers into the Red Zone. So I will have a little Aaron Rogers but I’ll be way under 66% ownership in my lineups. That just seems like a trap to me…

So let’s talk Aaron Jones ($13,500 Captain, $9,000 Flex, $12,500 FD). Intereastingly, Jones is looking to be the highest owned Packer Captain/MVP tonight, which I think has a lot to do with the salary savings you get versus Rogers in the Captain spot (close to $4k). As much as I like Aaron Jones tonight to be the workhorse of this offense, I am worried about him. Again I wouldn’t be surprises to see the Cardinals come out and stuff the box on Jones and force the passing game. Which wouldn’t hurt Jones too much as an adept pass catcher, it’s just the Cardinals on the Season have been allowing over 115 yards to running backs per game and I’d love to see Jones dominate here as I think he is too cheap in the flex for the projected opportunity. He is a flex play for me for sure tonight but, it is with some concern.

With all of the injuries to pass catchers tonight though, I also really like AJ Dillon ($2,100 Captain, $1,400 Flex, $6,500 FD) to have a bigger role tonight. First of all I love the flex price on DK, additionally I love that he looks to be sub 15% ownership tonight – literally half of the ownership Aaron Jones is seeing. However since week 4, Dillon has started to carve a path and in a competitive game with Cincinnati earlier this season, Dilon had 8 carries and 4 targets. Not bad for a backup. I already expected this game to be competitive, but with the injury news I think the Packers will use every weapon they can to try and stay competitive and so I think we will see a good share of AJ Dillon tonight and at only $1,400 on DK in the Flex I think he makes a great leverage play in lineups without Jones.

When you talk Packers Pass Catchers you have to talk the Aaron Rogers Circle of Trust. So if I am stacking Packers I am starting my stack with the remaining pieces of that circle – namely Randall Cobb ($5,400 Captain, $3,600 Flex, $7,000) who I would have to think will be Aaron Rodger’s #1 WR target tonight. TOO CHEAP on DK for the projected usage. He is close to 40% owned though but I wil eat the chalk here. Next you have Tight End Robert Tonyon ($6,900 Captain, $4,600 Flex, $8,000 FD) who is also very popular tonight. The thing is, the Cardiunals are the #1 Defense against Tight Ends, so I have my concerns. Tonyon is coming off his best game of the seasonb but keep in mind that was with Adams and Lazard both playing and keeping the Washington Defenses’ focus. But I’ll have some Cobb – Tonyon double stacks. The guy I have a lot of interest playing tonight is the other TE Mercedes Lewis ($1,500 Captain, $1,000 Flex, $6,000 Flex). Lewis has been a long time Roger’s favorite and is usually good for a catch or two per week, maybe a red zone target – but with vacancies at pass catcher tonight I wouldn’t be shocked to see Lewis’s usage go up at all. He’s cheap and no one is playing or thinking of him. He is a great end of the lineup salary saver.

If I had to rank the remaining WRs in Green Bay it would be 1. Equanimeous St Brown 2. Kylin Hill 3. Amari Rogers 4. Malik Taylor. The thing is these guys are cheap and unbelievably they are next to no ownership. In fact as of right now the only ones seeing any ownership are St Brown and Rogers. So Mix and Match them… One of them is bound to get targeted tonight, it’s not a bad idea to have shares of each for the event that happens. Oh and it looks like the Packers have activated TE Dominique Daffney tonight as well…. do with that information as you see fit but he is dirt cheapiest of all of these guys and at only $300 in the flex on DK, he’s worth 1 roster spot if you are multi-entering.

I am making Kicker Mason Crosby ($6,000 Captain, $4,000 Flex, $8,500 FD) a bit of a priority tonight. I think there will be a lot of opportunities at field goals tonight. I’ll also have at least one lineup on DK with the Packers DST just for a leverage play as there is a lot of chalk on the Cardinals side of the slate.. they are $2,800 in the flex on DK.

The Cardinals

My favorite Captain/MVP Play tonight is Kyler Murray ($18,000 Captain, $12,000 Flex, $17,000 FD). My strategy tonight isn’t going to be hard. It’s Kyler at the top. Then I am building in three ways.

First is stacking Kyler with 2 Pass Catchers out of this group: DeAndre Hopkins ($15,900 Captain, $10,600 Flex, $12,000 FD), Christian Kirk ($10,800 Captain, $7,200 Flex, $11,000 FD), AJ Green ($10,200 Captain, $6,800 Flex, $10,500 FD), Rondale Moore ($7,200 Captain, $4,800 Flex, $7,500 FD). My favorite pairing out of this is Kyler – Kirk – Green believe it or not. I love Dehop any night but we have also seen the ‘didn’t practice all week but he’s out there’ routine a couple times this season so I so I am a little concerned. The wild card is Moore who I will likely stack with Hopkins more than Kirk. I could see a Kyler – Green – Moore stack being interesting too though

Second is stacking Kyler with one of his Wide Recievers and one of his running backs. Chase Edmonds ($10,500 Captain, $7,000 Flex, $9,500 FD) or James Connor ($11,700 Captain, $7,800 Flex, $10,000 FD). Despite the higher price for Connor, I do prefer him as he is seeing nearly half the ownership that Edmonds is seeing and I also, I like the touchdown upside that Connor brings. Mixing and matching the Wide Recievers, primarily Hopkins, Kirk and Green in a stack like this is a way to gain some leverage.

Third is stacking Kyler with 1 of his wide recievers (primarily 1 Hopkins, Kirk or Green) with 1 of his running backs (Connor or Edmonds) and TE Zach Ertz ($9,300 Captain, $6,200 Flex, $8,500 FD) who immediately saw action and scored a touchdown in his first week with the team. He will be involved tonight mark my words.

I am filling these lineups with Cheap Packers – there are plenty to chosoe from! Randall Cobb, Robert Tonyon, Mercedes Lewis, AJ Dillon etc etc… Start with the Circle of Trust and work your way back. These Kyler stacks will make up the majority of lineups tonight. Here is one on DK:

Captain: Kyler Murray

Flex: Deandre Hopkins

Flex: James Connor

Flex: Aaron Jones

Flex: Randall Cobb

Flex: Equanimeous St Brown

The Cardinals DST will be popular tonight with the injury news and I don’t mind throwing them in the Flex in Cardinals Stacks too – but despite the lack of WR Depth, you are still playing a DST against Aaron Rogers so proceed with caution at $3,000 on DK. I also will have a share or two kicker Matt Prater ($6,300 Captain, $4,200 Flex, $9,000 FD) mainly in Green Bay Stacks and lineups with the Green Bay DST. However only on DK – I can’t pay $9K on FanDuel for a kicker.

GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS!

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