You can find me on Twitter @DelRayBoston
Going into Week 8 I was really excited. With the Cardinals, Packers, Cowboys, Vikings, Giants & Chiefs all off the main slate I was excited to see the value plays that opened up and excited to try my hand on teams some teams that I haven’t played in DFS all season long yet. But now on Sunday Morning, I see that the way ownership is going, it just doesn’t have the feel I was hoping for. Replace Kyler in ownership with Jalen Hurts, replace Mahomes in ownership with Josh Allen, replace Dak in ownership with Matthew Stafford… and then there is everyone else.
Confused? Let me land the plane. The top 3 owned quarterbacks on today’s DraftKings and FanDuel main slates are Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford. Which by process of elimination would mean that a Jalen Hurts – Devonta Smith (or Dallas Goedert) stack will be very popular. Likewise will be a Josh Allen – Stefon Diggs (or Emmanuel Sanders stack). And everyone will be playing Matthew Stafford – Cooper Kupp. Are any of these plays ‘bad plays’? No! Each stack is up against a struggling team and a struggling defense and on paper should smash. On paper. So if everyone is playing one of or all three of those stacks… how do you get different in your tournament builds? How do you stand out and find leverage… So what I want to talk about here is using that general collection of players: Jalen Hurts, Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders as the base of your player pool today and help you to find secondary stacks that have upside as well as ways to gain leverage. So let’s look at some lesser owned games, with upside to build a secondary stack to pair with one of any of the above combinations.
Bengals vs Jets
There is attention on this game but it is ALL on the Bengals Side and specifically the skill players. Joe Mixon 19% owned, Tee Higgins 15% owned, but here’s a scoop, Ja’mar Chase is 12% owned – the lowest he has been since week 2. Part of what is driving that down is his higher salary, but I love that ownership if it stays. But like I said all of the ownership is going on the Bengals side. So you have Jamison Crowder sitting there at 9% ownership with Corey Davis doubtful to play and the Jets already rolling out their backup quarterback. How much usage do you think the slot receiver extrarodinaire will see … a lot maybe? Or what about the running back Michael Carter 7% ownership with Tevin Coleman already ruled out. The Jets backfield was already becoming Carter’s but now even more so and do the Bengal’s scare me as run stoppers? NO? You also have the Tight End Ryan Griffin who is seeing only 2 targets a game from Zach Wilson but with a backup under center in Mike White, the tight end could be a lot busier with quick throws today… So what if you use low owned Ja’Mar Chase and pair him with Jamison Crowder and plug that into a Mathew Stafford – Cooper Kupp lineup. You are left with $4,220 and you still haven’t picked a defense yet which will only help raise your remaining salary. Here is a lineup I built with both the Rams-Texans game stack and the secondary stack of the Bengals – Jets:
QB Matthew Stafford
RB Michael Carter
RB Zack Moss
WR Cooper Kupp
WR Ja’mar Chase
WR Jamison Crowder
TE CJ Uzomah
FL: Kenneth Gainwell
DST: Washington FT
Not a bad tournament lineup and there is a lot of strategy and leverage here. First I am using the Chalk of Stafford and Kupp. I am leveraging the popularlity of some pieces in the Ciny NYJ game by nabbing lower owned pieces with upside in Chase, Crowder, Carter and Uzomah. I am then finishing with pieces of two other popular and potentially high scoring games with Buffalo and Philadelphia and using secondary low owned plays in the game: Zack Moss and Kenneth Gainwell respectively. Also spoiler – the ONLY defense I am playing this week on DK is $2,100 Washington against Sam Darnold. What do you think of this lineup … would you play it? Let’s look at another game shall we?
49ers vs Bears
This game is going WAY under the radar and it makes for perfect secondary stack fodder. First of all Deebo Samuel for being THE GUY in this offense is looking to be Sub 10% owned today which is nuts, especially with Jimmy G under center. Also Elijah Mitchell who looks to be the guy to play in the SF Backfield, 12% ownership. And while the Bears are not a team I love to target this year, superstar RB replacement Khalil Herbert is only 4% owned and seeing ALL of the work in that backfield – plus it hasn’t really seemed like the 49ers are interested in stopping the run this season either. So let’s build around Josh Allen – Stefon Diggs with a Bears-49ers secondary stack and see how it shakes out:
QB Josh Allen
RB: Khalil Herbert
RB: Kenneth Gainwell
WR: Stefon Diggs
WR: Emmanuel Sanders
WR: Deebo Samuel
TE: Cole Kmet
FL: TJ Hockenson
Here I am double stacking Josh Allen with Diggs and Sanders, his 1a and 1b receivers. I can do that on DK because despite the targets and production they refuse to price Emmanuel Sanders for anything over $5,400. I’m making a secondary stack with the 49ers and the Bears with Herbert and Samuel and taking a flier on Cole Kmet who got a score last week and is cheap at $3,100. Then I am again leaning on another popular game with Philly and Detroit by stacking Gainwell and Hockenson. Again – a pretty good tournament lineup. If we get news that Davante Parker will play for the Dolphins I might switch off Sanders for him as a run back on the Buffalo stack but other than that not a bad build. What do you think?
Seahawks vs Jaguars
Another game seeing little attention (except for Dan Arnold at $2,800 on DK seeing 15% ownership as a cheap tight end) is Seattle and Jacksonville and I love that it is being overlooked. For instance DK Metcalf, sure it’s Gino Smith throwing him the ball but it’s still DK “Freakin'” Metcalf against the Jagauars and he is only 5% OWNED! You want to talk about a leverage play off of 15% owned Dan Arnold? Yup. Or how about James Robinson, stud Running Back against a Seahawks team we have been running on all season long – sub 10% ownership. Or what about the Seahawks Alex Collins – 2% ownership against the Jags… and here’s a dart throw for you, Jamal Agnew WR Jags $3,700 on DK. Coach Meyer came out and praised Agnew for his abilities this week. In the last week Agnew has seen 14 targets. Yeah, I’ll play some Jamal Agnew – will you? PS. Agnew is less than 1% owned. My point is, this game has plenty of pieces with plenty of upside so let’s build a secondary stack around Jaylen Hurts – Dallas Goedert here:
QB: Jaylen Hurts
RB: Deandre Swift
RB: James Robinson
WR: DK Metcalf
WR: Jamal Agnew
WR: Brandin Cooks
TE: Dallas Goedert
FL: Darrell Henderson
DST: Washington FT
So first I am building around Jaylen Hurts with the stack with Dallas Goedert and Detrot’s Deandre Swift. Then I am using Seattle and Jacksonville as a secondary stack and taking low owned pieces of that game for leverage – Alex Collins, DK Metcalf, Jamal Agnew. I am finishing this off attacking another popular game in LA and Houston with Cooks and Henderson. What do you think? I could swap Henderson for James Robinson and go a different direction at RB, but I like the upside here.
OTHER GAMES I AM TARGETING:
New Orleans Vs Tampa Bay: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, GRONK, Fournette, BRADY; Marquez Callaway, Kamara
Titans vs Colts: Derrick Henry (Sub 12% Owned Today!), Tannehill, AJ Brown, Firsker, Carson Wentz, Michael Pittman, Jonathan Taylor, Zach Pascal.
Falcons vs Panthers: Matt Ryan, Kyle Pitts, Russell Gage, Touchdown Patterson, Chubba Hubbard, DJ Moore, TE Tommy Tremble
Pittsburgh vs Cleveland: Chase Claypool (Browns Killer!), Deyonte Johnson, Friarmuth, Najee Harris, Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb, D’ernest Johnson (Flex), NJoku.
NE Patriots vs LA Chargers: Damien Harris, Brandon Bolden, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Justin Herbert, Hunter Henry
Build Better Lineups – Good Luck In Your Contests!