Week 9 Begins – Thursday Night Football – Colts Jets – DFS Strategy & Picks – Real Deal Fantasy HQ!

You can find me on Twitter @DelRayBoston

Does it make me sound weird to say that I am excited to see what the Jets can do tonight? As a Patriot’s fan believe me to even write that, I feel dirty BUT it’s true. I am excited to see this game. If you are unfamilliar with this article, what I try and do for you the DFS Player is to give you some idea on strategies to employ when building your lineups. I also like to tell you who I am playing and some additional low owned approches to help you encorporate leverage in your tournament builds.

After taking a quick gander at the slate tonight however, I am going to declare that in your tournament lineups you will need at least one real leverage play to be able to cut through. The reason for this is overall ownership is so concentrated to only about 6 players in the flex on either site and so I think where I will be looking to find leverage is at the top – Captain on DK, MVP on FD. So instead of going team by team here, I’m simply going to go Leverage Play first and the Flex Picks and finally Dart Throws. So let’s get into it.

LEVERAGE

On DK at Captain, the immediate leverage can be found with the Jets. Primarily QB Mike White ($14,700 Captain), RB Michael Carter ($12,900 Captain) and WR Jamison Crowder ($11,700 Captain). These are going to be the Jet’s primary weapons tonight on offense, so from a usage standpoint you shouldn’t have to worry, but of course it is the Jets so yes go ahead and worry. BUT each of these players are literally 50% less owned in DK Showdown Tournaments from their counterparts on the Colts at Captain – Carson Wentz ($16,200 Captain), RB Jonathan Taylor ($17,400 Captain) and WR Michael Pittman ($15,300 Captain). Why does this matter? Well for starters, with salary savings on the Jets at Captain you can certainly still stack Wentz and Pittman in your flex (and I reccomend that you do) but where the leverage lies is that you are betting on at least one Jet having a good game here and keeping the Colts’ offense active. When I look at the Captain/Flex ownership overall on DK, most players seem to think that this game will be competitive, so you aren’t totally going against the grain in thinking the Jets can move the ball – you are just using the Captain’s spot as a point of difference against the competition by using a Jet Stud in place of a Colts stud. and even that potentially one of the Jets studs scores the same or better fantasy points than the Colts studs. Since Captain gives you 1.5x points, you will be ahead of the game with a lower owned player putting up similiar or better fantasy points than a higher owned player. I’ll get into additonal stacking options later.

On FD at MVP it’s kind of a bit more of an open field. Your chalk plays are Carson Wentz ($16,500), Jonathan Taylor ($16,000), Mike White ($14,000) and Michael Pittman ($13,500) in that order of ownership. Comparitively to what I have above about DK, who is missing? First there is Michael Carter ($13,000) coming in at 7% ownership, less than 1/3 the ownership of Wentz. He would be my favorite MVP Pick as I like using Running Backs most at MVP on FanDuel. Then there is Jamison Crowder ($11,000) at UNDER 3% ownership at MVP. Crowder should see some volume tonight and I don’t mind at all rostering him at MVP, just two low owned to ignore…

Or the other way to look at leverage in Showdowns is to pay down for a low owned Dart Throw that you have faith in making an impact tonight. If I am going that way in my lineups I have a short list I’ll mention here:

Colts WR Zach Pascal ($9,900 Captain, $8,000 FD) who is 5% owned at Captain and 1% owned at MVP. Anytime I see a DK price higher than a FD price for a player, I take notice. Pascal has seen 5 or more targets in every game this season and could he find the endzone on one of those tonight? Maybe?

Jets RB Ty Johnson ($9,600 Captain, $9,000 FD) who is 1.5% owned at Captain and 1% owned at MVP. Again higher DK price than FD price, check. But also Johnson not only had 4 rush attempts last week but also 6 targets from Mike White including a TD grab. Mike White LOVES throwing to his running backs.

Jets WR Elijah Moore ($9,300 Captain, $8,000 FD) who is 2% owned at Captain and 1% owned at MVP. Again the FD pricing, gotta like that and Moore saw 6 Targets last week and even a rush attempt. Like the usage here.

Jets TE Tyler Kroft ($6,000 Captain, $6,500 FD) who is 1% owned at Captain and 1% owned at MVP. Kroft saw 1 more target than his running mate TE Ryan Griffin, but that target was a touchdown catch. Lightning in a bottle? Can it strike again?

Colts RB Nyheim Hines ($8,400 Captain, $7,500 FD) who is 3% owned at Captain and 1% owned at MVP. FanDuel Pricing interests me again but if you believe that the Jets could get a lead in this game, Hines will see an uptick in action and we know that the Colts like Hines a lot to begin with. He is an interesting Captain play for me on heavy Jets stacked lineups.

Colts TE Mo Alie-Cox ($7,800 Captain, $7,500 FD) 1% owned at Captain and 1% owned at MVP. Look at somepoint Mo Alie’s size and hands will dominate a game. If he gets on a roll it will be like a boulder running down hill. This could be one of those games against a very beatable Jets defense.

Jets Kicker Matt Ammendola ($6,300 Captain, $8,500 FD) 1% owned at Captain, 1% owned at MVP. Look I never like recommending a kicker at Captain but there is a real chance that the Jets struggle on offense tonight and will stall on the Colts side of the field. Ammendola could be busy and he is an interesting Captain play for me on heavy Colts stacked lineups.

Lastly the Colts Defense ($7,500 Captain) 4% owned at Captain, similiarly to kickers I never like reccommending a defense at Captain but there is also a real chance that the Jets just plain struggle tonight and sacks, turnovers, no touchdowns – all of those things can matter. If you are using the Colts here, I would stay away from Jets pass catchers and since you need at least one Jet in your (what I would assume) heavy Colts lineup I would roster a Jets running back or kicker as the run back on the Colts stack.

FLEX

I feel confident telling you any combination of Wentz, Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman likely need to be in your flex and despite the above I don’t mind using any of these 3 at Captain/MVP with the other two stacked in your flex. In that manner I would likely go Jonathan Taylor at the top with Wentz and Pittman stacked in the flex, but that is just me. On the other side of the ball I think the Jets core will be Mike White and Michael Carter. 14 Targets to Michael Carter from Mike White last weekend, which if that continues tonight coupled with Carter dominating touches out of the backfield makes me most interested in those two players to build Jets stacks around. My favorite Jet though to use as a run back in Colts stacks is Jamison Crowder. Crowder himself had 9 targets last week and he took 8 of them for 84 yards and with Corey Davis out again, I like the odds of that target share continuing. Plus if the Colts watched the tape of the Jets week 8 and put a spy in the flats to cut off the Running Back Check Downs, Mike White will need another outlet and Crowder is the likely candidate for that in my opinion.

If you are double stacking on either side of the ball, I’d start with the names I listed above for Dart Throw Captain/MVP but that also brings me to my Dart Throws:

DART THROWS

Jets’ Keelan Cole $2,400 Flex DK, $7,000 FD. No Corey Davis only opens up opportunities for guys like Cole and he should be in your player pool. 4% owned on DK, 3% owned on FD. Love the DK Price.

Jets’ Denzel Mims $2,000 Flex DK, $6,500 FD. Rinse, Wash, Repeat on what I have above about Cole. 3% owned on both sites.

Colts’ Jack Doyle $4,600 Flex DK, $6,000 FD. Doyle has seen at least 2 targets in 4 games this season including last week where one of them was a Touchdown Catch. Lightning? Bottle? Worth a dart throw consideration. 3% owned on DK, 2% owned FD

Colts’ Ashton Dulin $200 Flex DK, $5,000 FD. Dulin has seen 4 targets in two straight games and will have an opportunity with the Colts down a reciever (TY Hilton). 3% owned on DK, 2% owned FD.

Colts’ Ryan Griffin $1,400 Flex DK, $6,000 FD. Griffin has seen as many as 6 targets in games and as little as 1 target in a game all season. The only reason why I mentioned Kroft earlier is he caught a touchdown last week. Griffin likely has the same opportunity. 5% owned on DK, 1.5% owned on FD.

Jets’ Braxton Barrios $3,800 Flex DK, $7,000 FD. Again with no Corey Davis on the field, Barrios should see some run. He had two targets last week, one was for a touchdown. 4% owned on DK, 1% owned on FD.

Jets’ Jeff Smith $1,200 Flex DK, $5,500 FD. Similar to Elijah Moore, Smith saw both a target and a running attempt. The Jets are throwing everything against the wall to see what sticks. 1% Owned on both sites.

Lastly The Jets Defense $3,000 Flex DK. You just never know.

GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS!

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