Week 9 DFS – Injury Advice and Picks – just the Picks – Real Deal Fantasy HQ

You can find me on Twitter @DelRayBoston

Today’s DFS Article will be a quick run down on a few major topics. First Injuries and how I see them relating to your lineups and whether to consider playing someone or not. Second stacks that I am keying in on as the foundation of my DFS lineups. Lastly, picks – just the picks. I’ll go position by position and rank my favorite plays. Where possible I’ll mention game stack strategies to consider using. Ok – LET’S GO!

INJURED PLAYER REVIEW

Christian McCaffrey – Probably the biggest news this morning is that there is a chance that McCaffrey plays in the Panther’s game against the Patriots. The Panthers activated him off of IR on Friday and he is going to “give it a go” during warmups. ADVICE If the Panthers elect to play McCaffrey, I say find a way to get him in a lineup for a few reasons. First, price – on DK McCaffrey is only $8K, the lowest I can ever remember seeing him. If he plays and he does what McCaffrey does, there is no chance he is this cheap again rest of season. Second, ownership – because this news of McCaffrey potentially playing coming late Friday and that we still don’t know if he will play his ownership is severely low as of right now 4% owned on DK, 5% owned on FD. If he literally is a game time decision, you could catch 95% of the field sleeping on the news and suddenly have Christian McCaffrey at next to no ownership. Third, matchup – of course the Patriots are a well prepared team but for 90% of the week they were game planning without McCaffrey in the mix. Now suddenly do you think the Patriots are throwing what they worked on all week out because of this news? Probably not? My point is, if McCaffrey ends up playing minutes before kickoff the Patriots could be as caught off guard as the rest of the DFS field you are playing against. I’ll take my chances.

Kenny Golladay – here is another player that by mid week we had written off. BUT, the Giants have activated Golladay and he will play today after ramping up activities to a full practice on Friday. ADVICE: My first advice is to take a shot at Golladay in stacks with Daniel Jones. With Sterling Shepard already ruled out, the attention of the DFS field (myself included) went squarely to Kadarius Toney as THE GUY – but my gut here is telling me that in a game the Giants need to win to stay relevant in their division, they wouldn’t trot Golladay out there if they weren’t going to use him. I think you can catch a lot of players sleeping and if Golladay catches 3 balls for 75 yards and a score, you could be sitting pretty. Golladay is less than 7% owned on DK and less than 6% owned on FD. Additionally at $5,200 on DK and $6,000 on FD – you are potentially getting a #1 receiver at a massive discount. In his final season with the Lions, Golladay’s average cost on DK was $7,700.

KYLER MURRAY & DEANDRE HOPKINS – I am grouping these guys together because of how frequently they are stacked together. Hopkins hasn’t practiced all week and neither he or his coaching staff are optimistic in him playing. Kyler on the other hand still has a chance to play, but it is narrowing. What to do? ADVICE: If Kyler plays with or without DHOP, I am staying away from him as there is a reach chance he doesn’t finish the game and at a high salary cost he is too risky for me. If Deandre Hopkins plays with or without Kyler, I am also staying away again too high salary cost for a real chance he is used mainly as a decoy (we have seen this in the past and it burned me). However, whether either of these guys plays or not, I do like two Cardinals a lot. Zack Ertz the tight end and Chase Edmonds the running back.

Ertz has seen 9 targets in only 2 games with the Cardinals and scored touchdowns in each. Whether it is Kyler or Colt McCoy, I think they will be looking for Ertz in short routes and red zone looks. $4,700 DK where he is 4% owned, $5,500 FD. where he is 2% owned. Take advantage in a game stack with Deebo Samuel.

Chase Edmonds mainly if Kyler is out, I like for the check down work I am estimating he will see and he already has seen 6 or more carries per game and 4 or more targets per game. He even ran for a score last week. $5,300 on DK where he is 11% owned, $5,900 on FD where he is 12% owned. If Kyler plays, I would swap Edmonds for James Connor at the same price and 1/3 the ownership, for what it’s worth.

Tua Tagovailoa – Tua’s latest ailment is a swollen finger on his throwing hand. There is little doubt that he will play today against the Texans, but the swollen finger on his throwing hand worries me greatly. What does that do for potential long balls to any of his receivers first and second, what if it worsens and he has to sit. Advice: Spoiler Alert, Tua is now the 5th highest owned QB on DK and the 4th Highest owned QB on FD. This has come down greatly as on Friday he was second only to Lamar Jackson. What that says to me is there are more DFS players who are like me that are concerned about the finger. What is amazing however is how that drop in Tua’s ownership has effected Myles Gaskin who has jumped to being the HIGHEST OWNED RUNNING BACK… Could the Dolphins finally lean on the run with Gaskin in a very winnable game against the Texans? SURE. But, I see a trap coming here that you can take advantage of.

If it was Davis Mills under center for the Texans I would fire up the Chalk Myles Sanders all day and not think twice – but it isn’t. Tyrod Taylor is starting at QB and the last time we saw Tyrod in a full game he went 21 for 33, 291 yards and a Touchdown and he ran for 40 yards too. In half a game against Cleveland he had a touchdown through the air and on the ground. This is a huge upgrade for the Texans offense and it makes me think that the Dolphins will need to be throwing to keep competitive… but we still have Tua’s finger to worry about. So what I am doing is offsetting the Myles Gaskin chalk by stacking him with Tua AND TE Mike Gesicki who’s own ownership has also dropped in the last 24 hours. Gesicki now sits at less than 8% owned on DK and less than 6% owned on FD. This smart stack is banking on Tua needing to dink and dunk his passes and get the ball out quick with the most likely targets for that being the running back and tight end.

George Kittle – Kittle will be active today but the both the coaches and Kittle himself have announced he will be on a “pitch count”. In fact a report from the beat writers in SF say that they expect Kittle to play HALF the game – at most. ADVICE: I like George Kittle but I am avoiding him today. If he beats me he beats me but a couple things. First the Cardinals are no longer the auto play the TE against them team. They have really sewn up the middle of the field. So the matchup isn’t right for me. And while I am on 49ers Pass Catchers, I hate to say it but I feel the same way abouyt Deebo Samuel. Do I want to play Deebo today – YES! But the Niner’s have said they “don’t know how long he will or can go”. YUCK! I’ll have a couple shots on Deebo, but he isn’t the lock and load play for me this week as he has been in the past…

James Robinson – similar to McCaffrey, Robinson will test himself in pre-game workouts to determine he will play, but reports out of DUVAL is that he is still doubtful. ADVICE: Whether or not Robinson plays, I am not using a single Jaguar today against the Bills. Not as a run back to Bills’ stacks – nothing. The Bills are #1 against QBs, #1 against RBs, #1 against WRs. Maybe the Tight End Dan Arnold sneaks in a lineup but that’s about it #Analysis

Eli Mitchell – it is expect that Mitchell will play today but similar to George Kittle, it is expected he will have a lessened workload. ADVICE: I’m staying away. Too many question marks. If Mitchell gets hot could the Niners elect to keep him in? Sure, but most likely we will see a rotating door with Jay’Micheal Hasty and the returning Jeff Wilson trying his own injured self out. Too many question marks. Plus the Cardinals have been pretty good against the run anyway. I’ll stay away.

Sam Darnold – Darnold is reported today as “going to give it a go” after earlier in the week he sought guidance from an independent neurologist. ADVICE: If McCaffrey plays, I’ll take a shot on Darnold in a stack ONLY. If McCaffrey is out, there isn’t a chance in hell I click Darnold’s name. Says more about McCaffrey’s potential impact than it does Sam’s, but that is just the facts. #Analysis

Amari Cooper & CeeDee Lamb – they are both cleared to go without restriction. As is Dak. ADVICE: Play the Cowboys today. In fact, you may be able to gain some leverage here with a Dak – Cooper or Dak – Lamb stack as Ezekiel Elliot is currently the second highest owned Running Back on the slate behind Alvin Kamara. It’s not that I think Zeke is a bad play (he isn’t he is a smash play) it’s just that for once Dak and his two main receiving targets are all under 10% owned, it’s definitely a leverage spot that you can take advantage of if this game gets into any kind of shootout. Oh and don’t forget Dalton Schultz the tight end. Blake Jarwin has been ruled out which means Schultzy could be in for a heaping of targets especially in the Red Zone.

Albert Okwuegbunam – after being labeled the #1 Tight End for the Broncos this week, Albert O suffered a set back and is now questionable. ADVICE: If he can go he is the ultimate value play at Tight End. As my DFS partner in crime often says – you beat the Cowboys with the Tight Ends. But if he can’t go? I am staying away from any other Denver Tight End. Too many question marks there for me.

PICKS

QB:

HIGH PRICE:

Lamar Jackson – Love the stack with Marquise Brown who is way under-owned. Jackson is the highest owned QB, great way to have a balanced stack with Brown.

Josh Allen – we’ve seen the Bills put up mad points in games like this one against Jacksonville. He is my favorite point per dollar play at QB. Love the Allen – Diggs stack best.

LOW PRICE:

Derek Carr – low ownership on a guy with a lot to prove in the wake of Gruden’s exit and Rugg’s tragic end to his Raider’s career. Matchup with the Giants is solid and a stack with Hunter Renfroe and Darren Waller seems like a winner to me.

Daniel Jones – in that game against the Raiders, Jones comes in with Golladay, Slayton and Toney all healthy. Also Evan Engram. Point is, I like Jones today to put up a big game today in a Must Win.

Low Price

Tyrod Taylor – Love the opportunity against the Dolphins allowing the most fantasy points to QBs in the league and I love the stack with Brandin Cooks, run it back with Gesicki or Gaskin.

Baker Mayfield – the cheapest I have seen Baker on DK over the last 2 seasons. I think the exit of OBJ only helps and I love the stack with Jarvis Landry. Also, in 3 meetings with the Bengals- Baker is a bit of a Bengals killer, look it up. I’m not wrong. #Analysis

RUNNING BACK:

High Price

Alvin Kamara – find a way to get Kamara in your lineups

Austin Ekeler – find a way to get Ekeler in your lineups

Ezekiel Elliot

Joe Mixon

Nick Chubb

Aaron Jones – with Jordan Love starting, I see a big game from Jones

Dalvin Cook – Love the run back in Lamar/Hollywood Brown stacks

Mid Range

Darrel Henderson

Josh Jacobs

Devontae Booker

Darrel Williams

Value:

Boston Scott

Derrick Gore – Flex Play

WIDE RECEIVER

High Price

Tyreek Hill

Stefon Diggs

Davante Adams – you will never see Davante Adams this low owned in tournaments ever again

Ja’Mar Chase

AJ Brown

Mid Range

Adam Thielen

Keenan Allen

Brandin Cooks

Marquise Brown

Courtland Sutton

Emmanuel Sanders

Cole Beasley – if he plays

Christian Kirk – if Hopkins sits

Kadarius Toney

Jarvis Landry

Value:

Rashard Higgins – Donovan Peoples-Jones is doubtful and OBJ is gone.

Hunter Renfrow

Brandon Aiyuk – TOO CHEAP if both Kittle and Samuel are indeed limited

Rashod Bateman – if he plays

Isiah Ford – Dart Throw Flex in the absence of Davante Parker

Zay Jones – reported to be taking the role left by Henry Ruggs, mint price on DK

TIGHT END

High Price

Travis Kelce – look for a bounce back today with suppressed prices and suppressed ownership

Dallas Goedert

Mike Gesicki

Darren Waller

Dalton Schultz

Value:

Albert O – if he plays

Tyler Conklin – the Ravens have allowed 50+ yards and a score to the TE in 4 straight games

Jared Cook – Philly can’t stop tight ends period

Dan Arnold – if he continues with the targets he has been getting, he is an ok value

Hunter Henry

Jordan Aikins – Pharoah Brown is out and Tyrod Taylor is back

Mercedes Lewis – my favorite dart throw, the best of the GB tight ends left with a nose for the endzone

DST

Bills – my favorite

Chiefs – who knows what Jordan Love will do. They are the Chalk Defense by a mile.

Dolphins – who knows what Tyrod Taylor will do. They are second only to the Chiefs in ownership

Cowboys

Raiders

Saints

Patriots – only if McCaffrey sits

Texans – Leverage play off the chalky Dolphins DST

GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS

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