You can find me on Twitter @DelRayBoston
First off I humbly apologize for not having a crystal ball to be able to predict what happened in Week 9. We, the DFS writers and analysts can only go off of the facts we have in hand and our own knowledge of the teams and our estimated guesses when we are making picks and writing about plays, but even the most hardened NFL Fan will tell you … week 9? Didn’t see that comin’.
We are talking about the Jacksonville Jaguars stifling Josh Allen and the Bills and winning. We are talking about the Denver Broncos dominating the Dallas Cowboys. We are talking about a Cardinals team without Kyler or DHop, trouncing the 49ers. And last night we are talking about a Derrick Henry-less Titans making the Rams look like they were playing flag football on a school yard.
So going into tonight’s Monday Night Football game, on paper this should be fairly low scoring. We have two defenses that are loaded with talent that have underwhelmed but also overachieved at times. We are also talking about two of the teams with the slowest rate of play in the league. But you know what – all bets are off in Week 9. This could be an offensive bonanza to finish out the week!
Either way I will stick with my format from last night here. First I will give my favorite plays at Captain/MVP. Then my favorite low owned Dart Throw plays at the top. I will follow that up with my strategy when building my lineups per team and highlight a few other strong plays and dart throws to fill your lineup with. So let’s GO!
Just so you can get a baseline on the field tonight, the Highest Owned Bears Captain/MVP on both sites is Justin Fields $15,600 DK, $14,000 FD. Now it isn’t that I mind playing Fields at the top, it’s just on DK at 15% ownership I will look elsewhere if I am restoring a Bear for the variance. However the Steelers are 25th against opposing quarterbacks and on FanDuel while I usually do not roster QBs at MVP on FanDuel because of the lack of bonus points for yardage, I don’t mind Fields here due to his running ability. It is similar to rostering a running back, only this running back can throw a touchdown pass too…
Where I will mainly be spending my Captain/MVP money however will be on David Montgomery $12,600 DK, $13,000 FD who the Bears have reinstated from the IR and is immediately expected to not only lead the Backfield but also handle most of the work. The Steelers aren’t the best matchup in the world but if Montgomery receives the workload that he was to start the season, the volume and the decent pricing – especially on FanDuel has me interested. Additionally at less than 5% owned on both sites at either Captain or MVP, I love the leverage of playing Montgomery at the top over Justin Fields or any of the Steelers.
I think the only other Bear I really have a ton of interest in at Captain/MVP would be Darnell Mooney $10,500 DK, $10,500 FD and it is only because of the consistency of targets. He’s only seen under 5 Targets once all season and has seen 7 or more in 5 games. It remains to be seen what the Bears can do on offense tonight against the Steelers at home, but I feel confident Mooney will be part of the game plan.
For the Steelers my favorite play at Captain/MVP is Najee Harris $18,600 DK, $16,500 FD. He will be the most popular overall Captain/MVP pick on the night on both sites but I don’t care. Double Digit Touches in every game this season including averaging 25 touches in his last 3. He has also seen 3 or more targets in every game, 5 or more in five games including his 19 target day against the Bengals. Is Chicago the best matchup for running backs? No, but same thing I said about Montgomery – if Najee’s volume and role in this offense continues to be as strong as it has been, I just don’t know how you don’t roster him at the top of DFS Showdown Lineups.
My second favorite Steeler Captain is one that I really want to get to overall, a lot, tonight – Diontae Johnson $13,500 DK, $13,500 FD. Johnson is another Target Hog on this team. Only once all season has he seen under 10 targets in a game and that one time he didn’t, he got hurt in the game and left. Additionally the matchup couldn’t be better with the Bears being 28th against Wide Receivers. I will have a lot of Johnson at Captain on DK where he is literally half the ownership of Najee and nearly identical the ownership of Justin Fields … #LEVERAGE. He is also just TOO CHEAP on FanDuel for the opportunity tonight.
The other Steeler I’ll mention here that I like tonight at Captain is the TE Pat Freiermuth $8,000 DK, $8,000 FD. This is a just a play with a lot of feeling and I know my DFS Partner in Crime Lee will love to see it. But with no Ebron on the field, the Freiermuth has been the man! 7 Targets in back to back games and he even caught a touchdown last week! Sure the Bears are listed as #2 against tight ends, but think of some of the tight ends (or lack there of) that they have seen this season to earn that: San Fran without George Kittle last week, Tampa Bay without Gronk the week before, Cleveland with David Njoku/Austin Hooper, Cincinnati with CJ Uzomah … outside of 4 games playing Tyler Higbee of the Rams, TJ Hockenson of the Lions, Darren Waller of the Raiders and Robert Tonyon of the Packers, the Bears have had several games where they could pad their stats against tight ends and if Ben is going to target Freiermuth 7 times again I want to make the most of the points at Captain /MVP.
Dart Throw Captains/MVPs
Chase Claypool $13,500 DK, $11,500 FD. It’s tough to call a talent like Claypool a dart throw but he truly is, you don’t know when or where he is going to go off. 3 times this season he has had 70 or more yards including a monster 130 yards and a score performance against Denver. His volatile nature in this offense makes him a great low owned Dart Throw at Captain/MVP.
This is going to sound nuts but the only other Steeler Dart I want to take a chance on at Captain/MVP is the Kicker Chris Boswell $5,700 DK, $9,000 Look there is a real chance the Steelers have a lot of drives stall and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Boswell busy. It’s been one of those weeks where I wouldn’t be shocked to see a Kicker take down a tournament – would you?
I also don’t want to be the guy that says don’t take a shot on Allen Robinson in the Captain/MVP Spot $10,800 DK, $10,500 FD. Is this the week that we finally see Allen Robinson be Allen Robinson? We have been waiting …. I’ll have him at the top spot in at least 1 lineup. He’s 4.5% owned at Captain/MVP
I’d also mention Tight End Jesse James $4,500 DK, $6,000 FD. REVENGE NARRATIVE ALERT! But since being activate he has seen 3 targets each week and he scored a touchdown last week. The Steelers are middle of the road against tight ends, so James could be busy,
Lastly I think I will have at least one lineup with Khalil Herbert at Captain/MVP $12,300 DK, $12,000 FD first as insurance if the Bears go more of a time share for Montgomery’s first game back – but also, Herbert has just been that good over the last 3 weeks, it wouldn’t shock me if he didn’t earn himself some role in this offense, even if it is a third down pass catching back role.
I’m just going to say it. I don’t think you need Ben Roethlisberger in your flex to win a tournament. Only once this season has he scored over 15 Fantasy points and I think a lot of players will be trying to jam him in lineups where I am just not convinced he is going to get you the points you need… I am much more inclined to play Johnson or Najee at the Top and layer in Freiermuth and/or Claypool in the flex and run the stack back with some Bears.
If I am using Ben in the Flex, the story I am going to tell is that the Bears find a way to slow Najee Down, so I will double or triple stack him with his receivers. Yes we have spoken about Johnson, Claypool and Freiermuth, but I also will try to mix in a couple other Steeler dart throws like 3rd Receiver James Washington, or 2nd Tight End Zach Gentry or gadget/return man Ray Ray McCloud. They also just activated Tight End Kevin Rader with Ebron out. He’s only $300 on DK… I don’t mind stacking Ben with 3 – 4 pass catchers in lineups without Harris.
I also like the Steelers Defense in lineups with Najee-Johnson-Freiremuth or Najee-Clapool-Freiermuth stacked.
On the Bears side, I do like using Justin Fields in the Flex if I do not have him at Captain. The stack with Fields and Mooney will be popular and believe it or not Allen Robinson is seeing some ownership in the flex too. The pivot here is Marquise Goodwin who has seen roughly the same targets as Robinson and his speed makes him a big play threat. I don’t mind a contrarian Goodwin stack with Mooney and Fields. I also think you need to keep TE Cole Kmet in your player pool. Kmet has seen 6 targets the last 2 weeks and due to the Touchdown Jesse James caught last week, his ownership is definitely down. I don’t mind rostering Kmet in lineups without Jesse James stacked with Fields and another Pass Catcher. Additionally, I’d try and keep one lineup with Khalil Herbert in the flex, again on the chance that Montomery doesn’t get a full work load.
If I am using Montgomery at Captain I am most likely limiting my stack to Fields with one pass catcher. I also like mixing in the Kicker Cairo Santos in lineups with Montgomery to be different. And I will have some exposure to the Bears Defense but only in Bears Onslaught type builds.
GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS