Week 10 Begins – Thursday Night Football – Ravens Dolphins – DFS Strategy & Picks – Real Deal Fantasy HQ

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Ever since the Patriots a few years ago won a prime time game in Denver and then played their following game in Miami and got trounced, I have come up with my own working theory … Northern Teams just play differently in the Florida humidity. Case in point, Buffalo last week in DUVAL COUNTY. So while tonight’s matchup with the Ravens and the Dolphins looks like an easy Ravens win, I just plain don’t count out the humidity factor that I have seen time and time again.

The Ravens enter tonight heavy favorites and there is a heavy ownership on Ravens players on both DraftKings and FanDuel, particularly at the Captain/MVP spot. However, I see a path where the Dolphins put up enough points to be relevant, so my first approach will be to build more balanced 4 – 2 stacks (Ravens – Dolphins) and 3 – 3 Stacks (Ravens – Dolphins). What I will do in this article is to start with my favorite picks at Captain/MVP. From there I will talk about how I am building the rest of my lineup (aka Flex Strategy) and will highlight some low owned dart throws I think you shoud have in your player pool. Let’s go!

Captain/MVP Picks

Your Highest Owned player in both Captain and MVP Tonight should not surprise you. It’s Lamar Jackson by a mile ($20,700 DK, $17,500 FD). 5 out of 9 games this season Lamar has put up 20+ Fantasy Points including 3 games ending with 30+ and week 6 against the Colts ending with 40+ fantasy points. While the Dolphins are not a division rival, they are an AFC team and a win here is just as important as any other that the Ravens have needed. Additionally, including week 9 the Dolphins are dead last by a mile against QBs, giving up the MOST fantasy points to the position thus far. It is easy to see why the field is with Lamar and even on FanDuel where there are no passing yard bonuses, Lamar can have a shot at a rushing bonus in the MVP.

From the Highest Owned to the, wait WHAT – Miami TE Mike Gesicki at under 5% Captain ownership on DK and 3% MVP ownership on FanDuel really stands out to me. As bad as the Dolphins have bee against QBs, the Ravens are 3rd WORST in the league against opposing Tight Ends and whether it’s Tua or Jacoby under center, you know Gesicki will get his. 6 or more targets in 8 of 9 games he is more of a volume play to me but he is also due for a Touchdown and why not against one of the worst teams in the league at defending his position. He is $11,100 on DK at Captain and $12,500 on FD.

Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown is also going to be a popular play at the top tonight, seeing 10+ targets in 3 of the last 4 games with two of those games going over 100 yards. He also has 7 Touchdowns on the season thus far. The Dolphins have loved giving up the big play and deep balls all season long and this is where Brown thrives in this offense with his speed and improved route running and hands. I like Brown tonight on DK especially where the 100 yard recieving Bonus kicks in.

Myles Gaskin is a surprise as the second highest owned player at MVP on FanDuel tonight. He is priced fairly on FD at $11,000, but I think this ownership stems from two factors. One it is always adviseable to play an RB over a WR or QB at MVP since FanDuel rewards rushing achievements – but probably more importantly players are looking at last week’s box score and jumping on it. But don’t forget, Tua did not play in that game – so the offense favored more heavily on the run. Tua has a shot to play and if he does, I think Gaskin becomes a much higer risk/reward candidate. For what it’s worth the Ravens rank 26th against Running Backs – but they are averaging UNDER 100 yards allowed on the ground… so while I don’t mind Gaskin at the top on FanDuel, he’s really not of a lot of interest to me on DK at that price.

One way to get leverage on the Myles Gaskin Chalk on FanDuel is to use Devonta Freeman at MVP, who with Latavius Murray out (doubtful) for the game tonihht, should lead this backfield and we have been playing Running Backs all season long against the Dolphins. Freeman is $10,500 on FanDuel but is also literally 1/3 of the owneship of Gaskin at MVP. On Draft Kings, Gaskin isn’t seeing remotely close to the ownership of Tua Tagovailoa ($15,300 Captain) or Jaylen Waddle $12,300 Captain). Waddle and Tua respectively are each behind only Lamar and Hollywood in regards to ownership. So trying Gaskin especially out at Captain on DK can gain a measure of leverage over the field chasing the Miami and hope that Miami again leans on the run a bit more in this matchup and gets to Tua with Interceptions and sacks.

Jaylen Waddle does intrigue me a little bit. With no Davante Parker, he shoud be in for a healthy does of targets once again in this game, no matter if it is Tua or Jacoby. However for as bad as the Ravens have been against Tight Ends, they have been pretty good with recievers and so of this grouping, I don’t mind taking a few shots at Captain on DK where he is $12,300, I am just surprised at his ownership versus the lack of ownership for Gesicki.

Lastly, you can’t talk the Ravens without mentioning Mark Andrews. At $13,200 and 14% ownership at Captain on DK, he sits kinda on the bubble for me and almost where I’d rather eat the Chalk of Andrews in the flex where I kinda like his price of $8,800 a bit more… that being said after a slow start to the season Andrews has seen no less than 6 targets in every game since week 2 including 10 last week. He also is a bit over due for a Touchdown and, for that potential Touchdown upside I’ll have at least one Andrews Captain on DK. He also really intriques me on FanDuel at 6% ownership on MVP. The liklihood of missing a 100 yard bonus is low, but if Andrews goes 6 for 60 and 2 – you’ll want him at MVP for sure in a game like this.

Dart Throw Captain/MVP

If you are looking to pay down at Captain tonight, my favorite pay down spot is rookie WR Rashod Bateman at $8,700 on DK at Captain. In the 3 games he has played he has seen 6 or more targets from Lamar including 80 yards in week 8 and a touchdown in Week 9. While not priced as a dart throw his 4% ownership at Captain on DK really appeals.

On the Miami side, if you want to pay down at Captain on DK for a low owned dart throw I’d take a shot on WR Mack Hollis who without Parker on the field last week saw 6 targets. You are hoping for a Red Zone look here, or a long bomb – but that is what makes a dart throw a dart throw. Hollis is $6,300 on DK.

On FanDuel for a Dart Throw, I’m interested in the Ravens #2 and #3 Running Backs – Le’veon Bell $9,500 and Ty’Son Williams (if he is active) $6,000. Both are around 1% owned at the MVP and sure they are really TD or bust, but last week Bell saw 11 touches and did get in the end zone. At MVP, that could equal 17+ Fantasy points – not bad at 1% ownership.

I think it is also not a bad move tonight to have at least one DK Lineup with either the Ravens and/or the Dolphins defense at Captain. The Ravens are the more popular play for a lot of reasons that I don’t need to spell out – but just in case there is the old Humid Black Magic working tonight, I’ll have one lineup with the Dolphins D figured heavily.

FLEX STRATEGY

If I am rostering Lamar at Captain, I’ll want to start my flex build with either Hollywood Brown or Mark Andrews + Bateman. I also have interest in figuring in WR3 Devin Duvernay who had a game winning touchdown last week and is seeing 2% or less ownership depending on the site. Duvernay is also a common kick returner and I don’t mind the strategy of including the Ravens Defense in stacks that have Duvernay. I am not as hot as stacking Bateman and Duvernay together with Lamar but I’m also not opposed. However if I am using either Hollywood or Andrews at the top spot, I don’t mind stacking Lamar with whomever of the two I am not using for 1.5 points with Bateman and the Ravens D. I’ll have at least one onslaught stack like that.

If I am using Devonta Freeman or Lev’Bell at the top, I don’t mind stacking with the Ravens D on DK. I’d thow in a low owned, record breaker in Justin Tucker the Kicker on FanDuel with a Ravens Running back since I can’t use the Defense. I would include Lamar in a Ravens Running back led stack but I’d limit him to one pass catcher – either Hollywood, Andrews or Bateman.

From a run back perspective on Ravens stacks, I think my primary target would be Gesicki and stack him with either Tua or Jacoby, depending on who is playing. If you need a salary saver, I also don’t mind Gesicki with the Miami Kicker Jason Sanders either.

If I am building using Tua at Captain, I am filling my flex with as many Miami pass catchers as I can first starting with Gesicki and Waddle. I’d Gaskin in this if I can but salary may get tight. So I don’t mind the cheap route with Mack Hollis and don’t forget another low owned CHEAP dart in Albert Wilson. WRs Kirk Merrit, TE Adam Shaheen, TE Duraham Smythe all saw targets last week so if you are sitting with $1,000 or under at the end of your lineup, there is plenty of cheap ones to find at the end of that Miami list. Isiah Ford should also be considered a Miami Dart throw but he is more of a kicker. I also do not mind with sticking with a Tua – Gesicki – Kicker Jason Sanders 3 man and building Ravens in around that either.

Good Luck in your Contests!

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