Week 11 – NFL DFS Strategy – Ownership, Leverage, Values and Stacks – Draft Kings Does Ya Dirty – Real Deal Fantasy HQ

You can find me on Twitter @DelRayBoston

As I sip on my Frangelico laden morning coffee and see the news breaking on who is starting and who is sitting, I open up my Draft Kings app and I can’t help but think – Draft Kings, You Did Me Dirty. I mean I understand that Draft Kings doesn’t have a personal vendetta against yours truly, and maybe it’s the booze, but it’s like they knew Kyler Murray was not likely today and that Lamar Jackson has am uphill battle to make the field, when they priced Cam Newton against Riverboat Ron at $5,100. C’mon – how do you not play superman at that price in that game, right? Yeah – EVERYONE IS going to do that. There is some voodoo afoot …

Don’t believe me? Here’s another one. They knew Aaron Jones wouldn’t play against the Vikings, so what do they do? They price AJ Dillon up to $6,200 – $100 more than James Connor, who was probably going to fly under the radar a bit this week but NOW, everyone is racing to play AJ Dillon and I betcha all the fancy players are like, oh I’ll be different now and save $100 and play Connor, that’s sneaky… HEY MCFLY, NO IT ISN’T!! THEY ARE BOTH HOVERING AROUND 30% OWNED … still don’t believe me on DK pulling some puppet strings? Ok, one more –

They also knew the spotlight would be on Aaron Rogers’ return to the field and that everyone would want to play Davante Adams because a). Rogers would be back and b). Davante eats Vikings DB like an old log in a wood chipper. But if you are stacking Rogers and Adams who are you going to run that stack back with? Oh how about Justin Jefferson? Everyone will be playing Dalvin Cook since the Packers are worse against the run than they are the pass so let me… What in the Whaaaat? Justin Jefferson is the third highest priced receiver on Draft Kings at $8,100? Third highest priced behind only Davante and Tyreek Hill? There is only $300 difference between Adams and Jefferson? Oh you sons of guns Draft Kings …

Oh hold up. Davante Adam’s is 25% owned today? Tyreek Hill is 23% owned? Justin Jefferson, only 5% owned? Oh DK you tricky b*tch. Now I see what you are doing… you are pricing to help us, not hurt us. You are guiding the masses to picks that they want and thus creating opportunities for leverage …. So now that I am back on the side of reason, here are some amazing ownership thoughts to drop on you, that can help you gain some leverage on the field today.

The Highest Owned Quarterback in DK Tournaments today will likely be Patrick Mahomes in a likely shoot out against Dallas. Mahomes is estimated at 15% ownership. As I mentioned above, couple that with the second highest owned receiver in Tyreek Hill – 23%. That stack will equate to 40% ownership. Meanwhile, in that same game – Dak Prescott is estimated at 6% ownership with no Amari Cooper, Ceedee Lamb should be right there with Hill in terms of ownership right? He isn’t. Lamb is looking to be 12% owned… Why this all matters in a game that everyone wants a piece of is that if you build a smarter lineup, keeping in mind the direction the field is going and trying to be a little different, it can separate you from the competition in tournaments. So instead of Stacking Mahomes and Hill, stack Prescott and Hill together and offset Hill’s chalk ownership with Dak’s low ownership. Or stack Mahomes with Lamb for the similar effect. If you are paying up for these guys already, you believe that this game will shoot out, I am assuming. So you are still playing the pieces, you are just playing them a bit differently than your competition.

Today’s article will focus on DK ownership and some surprisingly overlooked players that I think you need to have on your radar. Then some Chalk Plays that you need to be aware of. Let’s starting with QB:

Josh Allen – in a game against the Colts, who are great against the run and bad against the pass – sub 10% ownership as of this writing.

Aaron Rogers – in his return, in a NFC Rivalry Game against the Vikings. Davante Adams is healthy, Aaron Jones is not. Either way, Rogers is sitting around 3% ownership today. That means it isn’t likely chalk to stack Rogers and Adams and that stack could just plain break the slate.

Jalen Hurts – in another big NFC Matchup with the Saints. 3% Owned. This game on a whole is being overlooked. Just sayin’

Kirk Cousins – in that same game with Green Bay. If we are playing Davante Adams it is because we think he will eat, but if the Vikings don’t score points.. will the Packers continue to pour it on? Point is if you are playing Adams you’ll want a share of the other side of the ball and 2% owned Kirk Cousins is a good way to start.

Trevor Lawrence & Jimmy Garoppolo – in a game against the 49ers defense who for most of this season has been exploitable. On the other side, people are going to Love to Play Deebo Samuel, especially with the news Elijah Mitchell is sitting. Well it’s kinda like what I was saying about the Vikings, if you love Samuel to smash it has to be because you think the Jags will put up points enough to keep pushing the 49ers… well Lawrence is $5,200 and sub 1% owned. Also, it’s like people think Trey Lance is starting but stack chalky Deebo with his 2% owned Quarterback Garoppolo! It seems like a no brainer here.

Cam Newton – my favorite quarterback play of the day, up against his old coach and a defense that was already troubled but now has also lost Chase Young for the season. 7% owned. $5,100. Love.

Running Back:

Your top four highest owned running backs today look like AJ Dillon, Jeff Wilson Jr, Mark Ingram & James Connor. These plays have two things in common – first they are all a result of a well publicized injury and second they are all priced UNDER $6,500 on DK. My two cents. I am concerned with Dillon and how much Green Bay will rely on the run here. I’m also not 100% convinced this will be the Jeff Wilson show in DUVAL County today. This stems from not seeing either in the lead role yet this season. I think Connor and Ingram provide a safer floor as we already know what their work load is like without the #1 back on the field. I’ll have some shares of all 4, but I’m not going ‘all in’ on any of them… my favorite of the bunch is Ingram at $5,400 for what it’s worth.

Jonathan Taylor – the highest priced RB, the current rushing league leader, the guy who has seen 20+ touches all season is 4% owned today. Taylor is a big part of this offense and you think the Colts will forget that because Buffalo ranks #1 against the run? Love that ownership on Taylor.

Ezekiel Elliot – in the game with the Highest Vegas Point totals, going against a Chiefs defense that has been torn up on the ground all season. Zeke has reclaimed dominance in his backfield and yet, Zeke sits at 6% owned today. Criminal. At $7,700 I think he is under priced too.

Joe Mixon – always overlooked, today against the Raiders in a must win game for the Bengals to stay in the hunt in the AFC, 6% ownership. This is a game Mixon could dominate.

Josh Jacobs – in that same game against the 27th ranked Bengals Defense. 2% owned and at $6,000 he is the cheapest he has been all season

Antonio Gibson – JD McKissic I am mentioning these guys together because if you are playing Panthers (Newton, McCaffery etc) then you might want to have a share or two at the Washington Running Backs. Both are 2% owned, both are under $6,000 and one of them will have to have a decent day in order for the Football team to keep pace …

Dalvin Cook – 8% owned in a matchup with the Packers. C’mon.

D’Andre Swift – 5% owned in a matchup with the Browns that the Patriots just ran all over. Jared Goff is out. The Lions will need to lean on the run here. Even in bad losses Swift has been good for Fantasy. He is $7,000

D’onte Foreman – 6% owned against the Houston Texans. No Derek Henry, No Jeremy McNichols and only old man Adrian Peterson standing in his way from dominating the touches today. He’s also $4,900. Hello Horse, I have led you to Water.

Christian McCaffery, Nick Chubb, David Montgomery. Love the plays today, all between 15% – 13% owned. If you want to stay away from the chalk AJ Dillon, James Connor, Jeff Wilson, Mark Ingram crowd, finding a way to pair McCaffery, Chubb, Montgomery with any of the 5% or less owned guys I mentioned above is a smart way to do it.

Wide Receiver

Your highest owned WRs today look to be Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams and Tee Higgins each at 20% or higher ownership. The next ownership tier is J’amar Chase, Deebo Samuel, Hunter Renfrow at 18% – 15%. The third ownership tier is CeeDee Lamb, Stefon Diggs, Brandin Cooks, Jaylen Waddle, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Cole Beasley – 13 – 10% ownership. There are some great plays in this group and some not so great plays (in my opinion). If I am ranking them it looks like this:

1). Adams 2). Deebo 3). Hill 4). Lamb 5). Beasley 6). Diggs 7). Metcalf 8). Chase 9). Waddle 10). Cooks 11). Lockett 12). Renfrow 13). Higgins

Justin Jefferson – 5% owned in a must win matchup with Green Bay.

Adam Thielen – in the same game, 3% owned

Terry McLauren – practically matchup proof and a target machine, 3% owned

Michael Pittman Jr – has really emerged as the go to for Carson Wentz, 4% owned in a must win in AFC Showdown with Buffalo

Jamison Crowder – Joe Flacco is in command of the Jets today. Joe Flacco doesn’t throw deep. Joe Flacco loves his slot receivers (and check downs to the running back too, take that for what it’s worth). Crowder is 2% owned.

Rashard Bateman – playing the 29th ranked Chicago Defense. No Hollywood Brown today. Whether Lamar is in or out, bank on Bateman to get the WR targets. 3% owned

AJ Brown – No Julio and playing Houston, 8% ownership. C’mon.

Devonta Smith – two weeks in a row with 20+ DK points, against New Orleans. Marshawn Lattimore hasn’t been shadowing lately… you could do worse for 7% ownership.

TIGHT END

Darren Waller, Travis Kelce Dallas Goedert, Cole Kmet, Dan Arnold are your chalkiest at 14% – 7% owned respectively. Kelce is my favorite (my DFS Colleague Lee will tell you that you beat the Cowboys with your Tight Ends) but all 4 are in solid matchups really. But it is surprising how spread out the rest of the landscape is…

Mark Andrews, George Kittle, Mike Gesicki, Dalton Schultz, Gerald Everett are your next ownership tier at 5-4% owned… Kittle, Gesicki, Schultz and Everett stand out from a Matchup standpoint, but with no Hollywood Brown today – if Lamar plays, you gotta love Andrews.

Dawson Knox – he came back from injury and produced a dud last week, I get it… but when healthy we have seen how involved he has been in this Bill’s offense and the Colts rank 27th against Tight Ends. Knox is 1% owned. Love.

Tyler Conklin – has really been the third look for Kirk Cousins over the last 4 games, but the Packers have also been pretty lax against tight ends and if we think this game is a high scoring affair, I’ll take a shot at Conk at 3% ownership.

Adam Trautman – the Eagles can’t stop a tight end period, ranked dead last in the league against the position. Over the last 3 games, Trautman has seen at least 6 targets. He is 2% owned.

DST

The Cleveland Browns at $3,100 are the clear chalk at 20% ownership against the Detroit Lions now led by a backup quarterback. I will eat this chalk. #Analysis

GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS!

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