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Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours! Are you like me, are you looking for just a little bit of time to yourself before the bird is carved, the fixins are on the table and you are knee deep in a cocktail ready for early bed? No, just me? Anyway on Draft Kings and Fan Duel today you have a 3 game slate to build a successful lineup and have a Miracle on 34th Street Moment, just in time for Black Friday.
I’ll pull out for you my best plays from each game and then I’ll reveal my Ultimate Turkey Day 2021 Lineup … well it’s ultimate to me … on DK and FD. Let’s GO!!
Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions 12:30P EST
This is a classic NFL Turkey Day Battle between two Mid West Franchises with storied histories. However the 2021 version of this game has a lot to be desired, at least on paper. First you have the Chicago Bears who to put it nicely, are still finding their way on offense. Second you have the Detroit Lions who are yet to taste the sweet flavor of victory. A couple injuries to note in this game:
Jared Goff (Questionable – Game Time Decision)
Justin Fields (Out)
Allen Robinson (Doubtful)
Marquise Goodwin (Questionable – Game Time Decision)
Out of this injury group, the only player that I have slight interest in is Marquise Goodwin who over the last two weeks has seemingly become the “field stretcher” in this offense. Also if you don’t know Andy Dalton will be under center for the Bears. Not necessarily a bad thing, but the Red Rifle doesn’t make my must play list either:
Must Plays in this Game:
David Montgomery – Detroit rank 30th against running backs, allowing 140 yards on the ground. Too cheap on Draft Kings at $6,000 and fairly priced on FD at $7,500. He is the highest owned running back on the slate.
Deandre Swift – Averaging 13 rush attempts per game and a whopping 5.5 targets, especially if Goff Sits, his opportunity to control the backfield touches in this game make him a must play. Surprisingly Swift is the 2nd highest priced RB on DK at $7,300 and the 2nd highest priced RB on FanDuel at $8,000. He will be 50% owned today.
Darnell Mooney – Mooney had a season high 16 targets last week from the Red Rifle and with no Allen Robinson and potentially no Marquise Goodwin, he is easily the #1 WR on this offense and despite the rank on the Lions vs, the Pass – they don’t scare me. Too cheap on DK at $5,700 and fairly priced on FD at $6,800 … Mooney will pull 40% ownership today.
TJ Hockenson – It’s incredibly tough for me to list Hockenson here with the up and down season he has had but it’s hard to trust any Detroit Pass Catcher really, especially if it is the Tim Boyle show again under center. Hockenson saw 8 targets last week and while targets don’t equate to fantasy points, I expect the Lions to try and get him going early so he makes my list. $5,200 on DK where he is surprisingly under 15% owned. He’s $6,100 on FanDuel where he is also surprisingly the highest owned TE at near. So more of a DK start for me…
Bears Defense – if you thought the Lions with Jared Goff looked bad, oh man wait till you see Tim Boyle (if you haven’t already). Last week Cleveland held Boyle to 77 yards, 2 picks and no touchdowns. This game is in Detroit, so it does have the makings of a trap game in that “anything can happen 2021 way” but for me the Bears D at $3,000 on DK and $5,000 on FD make the cut. They will be 25% owned today
Cole Kmet – TE – Chicago Bears
Marquise Goodwin – WR – Chicago Bears (if he plays)
ANY DETROIT WIDE RECEIVER YOU PLAY #Analysis
Detroit Lions Defense – $2,400 DK, $3,700 FD
Las Vegas Raiders vs Dallas Cowboys 4:30PM EST
Moving on from the 12:30 game we have Dak Prescott and the Cowboys taking on Derek Carr and the Raiders in what has the makings of a shootout, at least on paper. This game is in Dallas, so take that for what it’s worth. While not quite like Drew Brees in the Superdome, Dallas has looked nearly unbeatable at home this season. Injuries to note:
None of note
Amari Cooper (OUT)
CeeDee Lamb (Questionable -Game Time Decision)
Darren Waller – my DFS partner in crime Lee will tell you, you play your Tight Ends against Dallas and Waller has had 8 or more targets in two of the last 3 games and 90 or more yards in two of the last 3 games including a season high 116 yards last week. He hasn’t scored a TD since week 4, but I bet he gets one here. $6,400 on DK at 40% ownership (highest owned) and $7,300 on FD at 26% ownership (2nd Highest Owned)
Ezekiel Elliot – Get ready for Big Zeke to eat against a Raiders team allowing 132 yards on the ground. I expect Dallas to try and control the tempo of this game from jumpstreet and it starts with Zeke. $8,000 DK 30% ownership (3rd Highest), $8,400 FD 56% ownership (2nd Highest).
Dalton Schultz – the big tight end has seen 5 or more targets in 8 of 11 games this season and especially with Amari Cooper Out and whatever is going on with Lamb, you have to like Schultz here against a Raiders defense ranked 26th against his position. This could be a two touchdown Schultz game here and I wouldn’t be surprised at all of Schultz leads the Cowboys in targets today. At 16% ownership on both sites, he is also a nice leverage play instead of Waller in this game. $5,300 DK, $6,000 FD.
Dak Prescott – it’s tough not to like Dak at home on Thanksgiving Day. Even without Amari Cooper, Dak still has weapons at his disposal and he also gets you a little extra with his legs, averaging 2 – 3 rush attempts per game. He is one of two “headline” QBs on this slate so he will be popular – 2nd Highest owned QB on both sites. None the less he makes the cut for me even with a sneaky decent Raiders Defense on tap. Too Cheap on DK at $6,900. $8,200 on FD.
Josh Jacobs – it hasn’t been a dominant year for Jacobs but he is still the Raiders #1 option at RB and despite the matchup, I like the volume here. He has led the backfield in total touches in every game this year and last week he even saw a season high in targets at 7. He is $5,900 on DK at 25% ownership and $6,700 on FD at 36% ownership, but I will still have Jacobs in my player pool.
Michael Gallup – especially if CeeDee Lamb sits, Gallup should be the #1 or #2 target for Dak Prescott today and yes, the Raiders have been pretty good against Wide Receivers but I think Gallup with his field stretching ability, needs to be in your player pool. His stat line last week isn’t anything to write home about but if he sees 10 targets, at home, with likely the Raiders doing whatever they can to try and slow Zeke down … I like the opportunity. Too cheap on DK at $5,900 – 40% ownership, second only to Lamb. If Lamb sits Gallup will be the highest owned on DK. Too cheap on FanDuel as well at $6,500, 41% ownership. CeeDee Lamb – IF HE PLAYS, is also a good bet operating primarily out of the slot but he will be CHALKY – he is the highest owned WR on both sites.
Derek Carr – QB – Raiders
Cedrick Wilson – WR – Cowboys
Foster Moreau – TE – Raiders
Hunter Renfroe – WR Raiders
Tony Pollard – RB – Cowboys
Kenyan Drake – RB – Raiders
Desean Jackson – WR Raiders
Zay Jones – WR Raiders
The Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints 8:20 EST
Of all the games today, this one has the most intrigue to me. First you have the Bills who are going on 4 weeks of “not looking right” (except against the Jets) coming into the Superdome to play a Saints Team plagued with Injury and a lot of uncertainty. Despite the high ownership highlighted above on some players, make no mistake – the field is with the Bills. Let’s start with injuries:
None of Note
Alvin Kamara (OUT)
Mark Ingram (Questionable – Game Time Decision)
Adam Trautman (OUT – IR)
Josh Allen – I am not going to go deep in the weeds on how poorly the Buffalo Offense has looked and played over the last 4 weeks (except against the Jets) and putting aside any potential Voodoo that comes with playing the Saints at Home, Allen has still “gotten it done” for fantasy players. During this weird 4 game stretch Allen has had 18 or more Fantasy Points in 3 of 4 and I just can’t look away from him in a big prime time Thanksgiving Day game. $7,800 on DK at 30% ownership (#1) and $8,800 on FD at 36% ownership (#1).
Tony Jones Jr – If Mark Ingram sits, Tony Jones is almost a lock to see the majority of Running Back snaps today and at only $4,000 on DK it’s amazing he is less than 8% owned. If Ingram is announced out, I expect that ownership to skyrocket. The Bills are middle of the road against Running Backs on the Season but over the last two weeks we have seen Jonathan Taylor and Michael Carter run them roughshod. Jones is also only $4,800 on FD at 7% ownership. Lock it in. By the way if Mark Ingram plays, he immediately becomes a priority for me, for what it’s worth.
Emmanuel Sanders – it’s not that I don’t like Stefon Diggs tonight, no I do also like Diggs. But dollars to donuts Diggs sees a heaping helping of the Saints’ Marshon Lattimore who has been playing next level this season, so I am looking at Sanders here. He has been quiet since Week 6, but this feels like a Manny Sanders type situation today. Too cheap on DK at $4,800 also 9% owned. $5,800 on FD, but too chalky for me at 30%. By the way, Stefon Diggs is roughly 40% owned on both sites today and while he could smash, Manny Sanders feels like a solid pivot – at least on DK.
Cole Beasley – this also feels like a ‘pass underneath and let Beasley be Beasley” type game to me. #Analysis. Too cheap on DK at $4,500 where he is 30% owned. $5,700 on FD where I don’t mind the 20% ownership, with both Diggs and Sanders above him.
Juwan Johnson – Who? Yes Johnson is the often labeled, converted Wide Receiver Tight End on the Saints. Adam Trautman saw 6 or more targets over the last 4 weeks from Trevor Siemian and now Johnson sits atop the TE Pecking order. The thing is Johnson has been there all along! He already has 3 touchdowns on the season and I like the target share the TE is seeing in this offense. $2,600 DK at 1% ownership, $4,500 on FD at 3% ownership, Johnson checks a lot of boxes.
Defenses. I am grouping both together here because there are reasons to believe in either. If you think the Bills continue this downward spiral, you have to like the Saints at home in the Superdome. If you think the Bills are ready to kill after the total embarrassment last week against the Colts, well you know if you read my stuff I always like players with Chips on their shoulders. #Analysis
Dart Throws –
Dawson Knox – TE – Buffalo Bills
Nick Vannett – TE – New Orleans Saints
Gabriel Davis – WR – Buffalo Bills
Tre’Quon Smith – WR – New Orleans Saints
Marquez Callaway – WR – New Orleans Saints
Deonte Harris – WR – New Orleans Saints
Isiah McKenzie – WR – Buffalo Bills
Kenny Stills – WR – New Orleans Saints
Ty Montgomery – WR/RB – New Orleans Saints.
Trevor Siemian – QB – New Orleans Saints
SHOWDOWN ONLY: Taysom Hill – QB – New Orleans Saints
I do not trust the Buffalo Backfield in this game. But for what it’s worth, Matt Brieda, may be a sneaky play.
DK BELLY BUSTER ULTIMATE LINEUP:
Here’s What I Got:
QB: Josh Allen
RB: Eziekiel Elliot
RB: David Montgomery
WR: Marquise Goodwin
WR: Emmanuel Sanders
WR: Cedrick Wilson
TE: Darren Waller
FL: Deandre Swift
DST: Detroit Lions
FD BELLY BUSTER ULTIMATE LINEUP:
QB: Dak Prescott
RB: Eziekiel Elliot
RB: Deandre Swift
WR: Darnell Mooney
WR: Michael Gallup
WR: Emmanuel Sanders
TE: Darren Waller
FL: Tony Jones Jr
GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS and HAPPY THANKSGIVING!