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The Week 12 Main Slate is offering something that I haven’t seen often and am extremely interested in seeing how it plays out. This is the VALUE QB Week to end all Value QB Weeks. Your most expensive QB on DK is Tom Brady ($7,600 DK) and on FanDuel it is Jalen Hurts ($8,400) and when you cap the pricing at that level, with 20 guaranteed starting QBs it creates an ownership vaccuum that is easy to see but also difficult to avoid. Let me explain:
On DK, between $7,000 – $5,000 look at the QBs that you can choose from: Aaron Rogers, Justin Herbert, Kirk Cousins, Joe Burrow, Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz, Jimmy Garoppolo, Cam Newton, Tua Tagovailoa, Matt Ryan, Mac Jones, Trevor Lawrence, Tyrod Taylor, Teddy Bridgewater, Ben Roethlisberger, Zach Wilson. Yeah – pretty much everyone right? On FD, between $8,000 – $6,000 it’s pretty much the same guys, minus Hurts.
What does this mean for you as you build your lineup? When the sites price 90% of the QB Field moderately, the chance of being different by “paying down” at QB is almost non existent. For instance your highest owned QB on DK is going to be Cam Newton at 14%. On FanDuel it will be Brady at 18%. But that basically means that if you look at the roster of names above you are looking at an average ownership of around 7.5% across all the names. Sure there are some outliers in there which I’ll get to, but if you are looking at stacking your lineup with High Priced RBs and WRs, paying down at QB this week isn’t going to be the great “leverage” play that it may have been in nearly every other week.
Your Outlier QBs this week from an ownership standpoint are: Carson Wentz (2% owned), Trevor Lawrence (1.5% owned), Zach Wilson (1.5% owned), Big Ben (1.2% owned), Tua (1% owned) and Ryan Tannehill (under 1% owned). Are you really excited to play any of these guys? The standout here is Wentz in what should be a highly competitive game against Tampa Bay, but what about Ryan Tannehill ($6,100 DK, $7,200 FD)?
Sure he gets to face a Patriots Defense at home in New England, who has looked absolutely overwhelmingly awesome over the last 5 weeks. Sure he doesn’t have Derek Henry there to open up play action with dominating running back performance. And Ok, so he doesn’t have his top two pass catchers in AJ Brown or Julio Jones and fine, even his pass catching running back to check down to. But what does he have going for him? His coach, Mike Vrabel who has won Superbowls playing for the Patriots. No one is playing Tannehill this week and it could blow up in my face, likely it will, but at less than 1% ownership? You are still talking about a team that 2 weeks ago was labeled “the hottest team in football.” I’m just saying, think differently today.
The biggest issue with Tannehill (outside of all of the other issues I mentioned) is he isn’t saving you salary enough to pay up for the Studs at RB and WR at his price. So let’s pull another Outlier out here, who may. Zach Wilson ($5,100 DK, $6,200 FD) at 1.5% ownership, in a game where he needs to prove something (as in, hey – I can be your starting QB!) against a Houston Texans defense that has been up and been down… Wilson may not have Corey Davis, but he still has Jamison Crowder and Elijah Moore as his top targets – PLUS, he is playing Houston… I like the pricing on Wilson here.
And then we are back to Carson Wentz. $5,800 on DK is a nice price in a game that will be competitive. No one is sleeping on Jonathan Taylor this week after a 5 TD Performance against the supposed #1 Run Defense in Buffalo (Taylor is 15% owned this week, versus .5% owned last week) and so Wentz and his pass catchers, namely Michael Pittman and TY Hilton are being overlooked – but when have we ever been worried about playing Wide Receivers against the Buccaneers? Seriously – when? So yes I have expounded on Ryan Tannehill and Zach Wilson, but if you are looking to find leverage in your lineup and save some bucks, I think it is Wentz in a stack with Michael Pittman also moderately priced on DK at $5,600, that will create that opportunity for you.
To wrap up QB here are my top overall plays:
Cam Newton vs the Dolphins
Tom Brady vs the Colts
Tyrod Taylor vs the Jets
Kirk Cousins vs the 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo vs the Vikings
Mac Jones vs the Titans
Aaron Rogers vs the Rams
Jalen Hurts vs the Giants
Trevor Lawrence vs the Falcons
As I mentioned earlier, no one is sleeping on Jonathan Taylor this week and as the highest priced RB on the slate on both sites, despite the ownership, he is at the top of my RB list – but surprisingly, the highest owned RB on both slates is Miles Sanders at $5,100 and $6,100 respectively, going against the Giants at home, it is a bit of a head scratcher for me. It isn’t the faith in the talent of the player that is in doubt, it’s the faith in the coaching staff to use him properly that I just see this as a major leverage opportunity. On DK, the leverage is playing Jalen Hurts at 5% ownership instead of Sanders – which has a ton of upside in my opinion. On FanDuel however, it’s playing Saquon Barkley on the other side of the ball at also 5% ownership.
Let’s face facts here – if the Giants want to win this game, they need Saquon to do Saguon things. No Sterling Shepard, no Kadarius Toney. It’s Barkley, it’s Golladay (who has looked terrible lately – btw), it’s Evan Engram and maybe a sprinkle of Darius Slayton (remember that guy)? So I love the leveage on FD that Saquon gives you versus the chalk Miles Sanders.
My other RB Likes:
Jonathan Taylor vs the Buccaneers
James Robinson vs the Falcons
Christian McCaffery vs the Dolphins
Corradelle Patterson (if he plays) vs the Jaguars
Aaron Jones (if he plays) vs the Rams – AJ Dillon if Jones is out
Leonard Fournette vs the Colts
Ty Johnson vs the Texans
Darrel Henderson vs the Packers
Rounding out this list are a few surprisingly low owned studs:
Najee Harris – 8% owned – against the Bengals
Dalvin Cook – 6.5% owned against the 49ers
Eli Mitchell – 6% owned against the Vikings
Austin Ekeler 7% owned against Denver
And there is just something about this Melvin Gordon – Javontae Willams combo that is really intriguing to me today against the Chargers. No one is playing either. I am going to Mix and Match.
On DK your top 5 owned WRs are: Keenan Allen, Chris Godwin, Brandin Cooks, Deebo Samuel, Diontae Johnson. All of whom are between $7,900 – $5,800. On FD your top 5 owned WRs are: Keenan Allen, Chris Godwin, Deebo Samuel, Brandin Cooks, Diontae Johnson. All of whom are between $8,000 – $6,500.
This says to me that paying up at WR today can be as much of a leverage play, as it is a good play. For the record – I love Deebo Samuel Today. That being said:
Cooper Kupp – $9,600 DK 15% ownership, $9,500 FD 10% ownership – he’s my guy on FD
Davante Adams – $8.600 DK 15% ownership, $8,700 FD 18% ownership – he’s my guy on DK
Justin Jefferson – $8,300 DK 10% ownership, $8,100 FD 12% ownership – love
Mike Evans – $7,200 DK 12% ownership, $7,500 FD 13% ownership – solid leverage off Godwin
Adam Thielen – $6,700 DK 5% ownership, $7,200 FD 6% ownership – no one ever plays Adam Thielen
Michael Pittman – $5,600 DK 15% ownership, $6,600 FD 19% ownership
Chase Claypool – $6,000 DK 1% ownership, great leverage off Dionate Johnson chalk
Some other WR plays to make note of:
DJ Moore – 12% owned, solid stack with Cam Newton
Ja’Mar Chase – 9% owned, great leverage off Diontae Johnson
Elijah Moore – cheap and 6% owned against Houston
Keelan Cole – no Corey Davis today, even cheaper and .01% owned against Houston
Jamison Crowder – Under 5K on DK, 2% owned against Houston
Marvin Jones Jr. – no more Jamal Agnew, under 6K on DK and 3% owned against Atlanta
Kendrick Bourne – the Titans, dead last against WR. Under 6K on FD and DK, 1% owned
Brandon Aiyuk – I can’t say don’t play Deebo, but Aiyuk $5,300 on DK 8% owned
Dart Throw City – OBJ, now with a game and a bye week to learn the game plan 5K on DK, $5,900 FD. 1% owned …
There are a lot of value plays at WR today that if you do your research, you can find a story for #Analysis
TIGHT END – just the rankings:
Kyle Pitts vs the Jaguars
Rob Gronkowski vs the Colts
George Kittle vs the Vikings
Pat Freiermuth vs the Bengals
Hunter Henry vs the Titans
Noah Fant vs the Chargers
Evan Engram vs the Eagles
Dallas Goedert vs the Giants
Dan Arnold vs the Falcons
Josiah Deguara vs the Rams
Ryan Griffin vs the Texans
Jared Cook vs the Broncos
Jordan Aikins vs the Dolphins
Mike Gesicki vs the Panthers
Donald Parham vs the Broncos
Dart Throws: Tommy Temble vs Miami, Pharoah Brown vs the Jets, Mycole Pruitt vs the Patriots
DEFENSES – just the rankings
Patriots vs Titans
Panthers vs Dolphins
Eagles vs Giants
Dolphins vs Texans
Jaguars vs Falcons
Broncos vs Chargers
Jets vs Texans
Falcons vs Jaguars
Green Bay vs LAR
Chargers vs Broncos
Texans vs Dolphins
Bengals vs Steelers
Steelers vs Bengals
Dart Throw: Titans vs Patriots
GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS!