You can find me on Twitter @delrayboston
If you had the chance to read our Week 12 DFS Preview my mea culpa is the Bengals. Just did not think the Steelers would be walked all over like that and in fact, I had that game being one of the lowest scoring of the weekend in my projections. So officially – I am sorry, I missed it.
I can’t say there was a lot of surprises thus far in Week 12, except maybe the Colts and Buccaneers who to say the least, underwhelmed … and I am not sure we will see many surprises tonight in this big AFC North Battle. The Browns finally look to have their backfield back at full strength. Meanwhile Lamar looks to finally have all of his pass catchers on the field for only the 2nd time this season.
So what should we expect? The unexpected… it is 2021 and we are still in the “anything can happen” season. However when I look at this game I think of two things jump out to me immediately. First Lamar. Jackson is 4 – 2 in his career against the Browns including his first win as an NFL Quarterback in 2018 and last season’s Monday Night Football record for most rushing yards by a quarterback. Second is Kareem Hunt. Will he return to a full workload? Because the last time we saw Hunt against the Ravens it was for 110 total yards and two touchdowns. So let’s talk Captain/MVP Picks, get some lineup building strategy and name a few darts and get on out of here. It’s the last day of a 4 day weekend and I want to spend the rest of this day enjoying it with the family.
CAPTAIN / MVP Picks
LAMAR JACKSON – I don’t really need to go back over Lamar vs The Browns, the only thing I can add is that tonight Lamar is not only the most expensive player on the slate by over $2,000 but he will also be the highest owned Captain/MVP at over 40%. I like Lamar more on FanDuel at $17,500 simply because of the scoring on FD favoring his rushing over his passing. That being said, he has also had the highest projected point total on the slate so I can’t not recommend you not using him at Captain on DK either at $18,600. The only thing I will warn you on is if you do use Jackson at Captain, you will need to really go deep on the dart throws to get different as I would suspect this will be a slate with A LOT of similiar lineups competing with each other, simply due to the lack of salary left after $18,600 is gone.
Nick Chubb second highest owned on FanDuel but by a huge margin, so deep in fact it shouldn’t really matter the ownership. Nick Chubb should be in line for a great opportunity coming into this game with Double Digit touches in every game he played with back to back 130 yard performances. Now mind you those two games as well as 3 of his 4 100+ yard games was done without Kareem Hunt on the field. So it remains to be seen how much Hunt works back into the rotation tonight after being activated from IR. Late last season, Chubbs last meeting with the Ravens had him go 17 for 82 and two scores. He also caught 2 balls for 21 yards. I’d take that line tonight. $16,800 Captain on DK, $13,000 on FanDuel (like that price a lot).
Marquise Brown Hollywood is likely to play tonight and I think that will be a huge boost to this offense. Since Week 5, Brown has seen double digit targets in 4 of 5 games and 80 or more yards in 3 of those games. He’ll be the second highest owned Captain on DK but again, by a wide margin. He should be the #1 Target for Lamar tonight and I like him at Captain on DK at $16,200. On FanDuel where receiving yards does not get a bonus, I prefer Lamar or Chubb. Hollywood has a great price on FanDuel by the way at $12,500.
Kareem Hunt this is a risky play for sure as we do not know if the Browns will ease Hunt back into his role but you have to like the ownership here of 1% on either site. I do expect if news breaks that he will have no limitations, his ownership could spike – but, if it holds I think he is a steal here. In Hunt’s last meeting with Baltimore at the end of last season he caught 6 balls for 77 yards and a score and ran for 33 yards and another touchdown. Again, gotta love that stat line. He is $10,500 at Captain on DK and $11,000 on FanDuel.
Mark Andrews 2021 has not been the dominating performance for Andrews that we have come to expect. However he is coming off his two best recent games going 6 for 63 and 1 in week 10 and 8 for 73 in week 11. I think that Lamar having more options in the passing game has definitely cut into his workload. The real difficulty here is that he has had only 1 touchdown in 5 weeks. I think you will need a touchdown from Andrews to pay off his salary $12,300 on DK, $12,000 on FanDuel. He isn’t my favorite pick for the top but I will have a share. For what its worth the Browns are middle of the road against Tight Ends.
Devonta Freeman this one is sneaky. 3% owned on DK at Captain and 2% owned on FD at MVP Freeman has just looked like the best RB in the Raven’s backfield for a few weeks now. Including last week with 49 yards on the ground, 33 yards through the air and a touchdown. At next to no ownership and against a Browns team allowing over 100 yards on the ground, I will take my shot. $10,200 DK, $11,000 FD.
Jarvis Landry unbelievably, this looks like a sneaky one too. Landry is 4% owned on DK at Captain and 3% owned on FD at MVP. Landry has caught 4 passes for 26 yards exactly two weeks in a row. What saved his fantasy day last week however was he got a rushing touchdown… maybe we see the Browns begin to use Landry in different ways after seeing that success. $11,700 DK Captain, $10,000 FD MVP.
Baker Mayfield nothing about this game and this season makes me want to mention using Baker at the Captain on DK or the MVP on FanDuel. Nothing except for the last time he played the Ravens going 28 of 47 for 343 and 2, plus rushing 23 yards for another score. He did throw 1 pick in that game and of course, OBJ was also playing in that game. So this is a different Baker and a different Browns, but past success has me intrigued. More of a DK play for me at $14,700 Captain. $14,000 FD MVP
Austin Hooper/David NJoku so here is the thing… the Ravens aren’t great at defending the tight end position, ranked 24th in the league against the position. I put both of the Browns tight ends here because you never know which will be “the guy” as they both have had their moments. What I do know is that Harrison Bryant the “other” guy in the room has been ruled out. Njoku’s targets have been growing: 2 in weeks 6 & 7, 3 in weeks 8 & 9, 4 in weeks 10 & 11. Hooper has seen 5 or more in the last 3 games. I don’t mind taking the shot here. Hooper is $7,800 on DK, $7,500 on FD, $6,000 on DK, $7,000 on FD
DART THROW CAPTAIN/MVP:
Rashod Bateman – Ravens – WR
Donovan Peoples-Jones – Browns – WR
Rashard Higgins – Browns – WR
Devin Douvernay – Ravens – WR
FLEX STRATEGY & DART THROWS
I think if you are playing Lamar at Captain or MVP I think it is going to be very hard to build the rest of your lineup with any chance of difference or leverage, even if you are stacking with only one of his primary weapons – Brown, Andrews, Freeman or Bateman – so as a novel approach, I am going to use Lamar naked – meaning with no stack – and fill my lineup with Browns. It is risky, but I just see it being one of the only ways to be different with Lamar.
If I am using Hollywood Brown or Mark Andrews (or any Ravens Pass Catcher) at top, I will stack with Lamar and also a second piece most likely Bateman or Douvernay. OR I don’t mind a “sprinkle” of Sammy Watkins in lineups like this. Watkins looked terrible in his season debut for the team in Week 10. He looked better in Week 11. He will be out there. Just a “sprinkle” though. However I also don’t mind using Freeman as a third piece to the stack.
I should mention that Latavius Murray should also see work out of the backfield, so in any lineup that has a Ravens stack, I don’t mind also a “sprinkle” of Murray in your lineups, but Freeman has just looked like the better back so, just again – just a sprinkle.
If I am using Freeman at the top, I will stack with Lamar but I’ll likely keep it at a two man Ravens stack. If I go 3 man, I’ll mix it up with a dart throw like Bateman or Douvernay to save salary or using the Kicker Justin Tucker and the Ravens defense here.
My favorite Browns run backs on Ravens stacks are Chubb, Hunt, Hooper, Njoku and the Kicker Chase McLaughlin.
If I am building around Nick Chubb, I’ll likely skip stacking with Baker and go with one of the tight ends and one of the wide receivers, Landry or Peoples-Jones or Higgins. I don’t mind using the Kicker McLaughlin in there too.
If I am building around Hunt, I’ll start the stack with Baker and then use one of the tight ends and one of the receivers. The other way here is to use Hunt or Chubb at the top and stack with the other one and fill the rest of the lineup with Ravens. This will be a contrarian approach that basically says all of the Browns points will come from the running backs, which let’s face it, is a potential outcome.
If I am building around either a Wide Receiver or Tight End, I am using Baker in the stack with Hunt and at least one of whichever isn’t at Captain/MVP. Example Landry (WR) Captain, Baker, Hunt, Hooper (TE). I also don’t mind 5 manning this with the kicker McLaughlin, but I do really like having at least 2 Ravens in each lineup.
My favorite Ravens run backs are Lamar, the Wide Receivers (Brown, Bateman, Douvernay mainly), Freeman and the kicker Justin Tucker.
And if you want to be gutsy, have a lineup with the Browns D in it. Risk is, they are playing Lamar Jackson. Reward is though, everyone in DFS is playing Lamar Jackson. So if the Browns stop him, and you play them, you could have MASSIVE leverage on the field.
GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS!