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So first, I hate to say I told you so but if you read my SNF Preview yesterday to the end you saw the final recommendation that if you dared to roster the Cleveland Browns defense in a lineup you were likely headed towards some cash if they performed well. Guess what? They performed and while I didn’t listen to my own advice, someone else did and took down some tournaments – seriously, go check the results on DK if you don’t believe me. So well done to the victors.
Next I just want to mention how absolutely upside down Week 12 has been for me from a fantasy perspective. If it wasn’t for cashing in with some DFS lineups the weekend would have been a wash completely. And in my most important league, on a 6 week winning streak and about to take the #1 spot again my whole lineup ended up a bust. Ugh… why do I put myself through this every year!
On to tonight. A dandy of a matchup between the Seattle Seahawks (who have looked like anything but the Seattle Seahawks over the last two weeks) and the injury laden Washington Football Team. I don’t know of any other team with worse luck in regards to injuries than the WFT.
That being said it’s the Seahawks on the road coming in as heavy favorites and playing to hopefully find a way into a wild card game. Meanwhile the WFT are not likely to recreate the miracle of a playoff berth again – but they are still going to play to win on some off chance that it could happen. So let’s get into it, talking Captain/MVP picks first then lineup strategy and dart throws. Let’s go.
CAPTAIN / MVP PICKS
Terry McLaurin – Scary Terry is the 4th highest owned player on both sites at the top (Captain on DK, MVP on FanDuel). Meanwhile he is the second most expensive pick on DK at $15,900 and third most expensive on FanDuel at $14,000. Normally when I see a price lower on FanDuel than on DK I rush to lock the play in… however on FanDuel where there is no 100 Yard bonus I am more likely to play him in the flex. Either way, McLaurin has seen no less than 7 targets per game only once this season and is the clear #1 in this offense. Despite the quarterback, I love the opportunity here facing a Seahawks team ranked 15th against receivers and allowing nearly 280 passing yards per game.
JD McKissic – If you want to get different in your lineup, here is your ticket. McKissic is 3% owned at Captain on DK and less than 1% owned at Captain on FD. True, JD is the 3rd down back – but hold on, check the tape, this guy has been a play maker for this team all season when he gets his opportunity and if the Seahawks do what Vegas thinks they will and take the lead – it’s McKissic time! In 7 of 10 games this season JD has seen 4 or more targets and with Antonio Gibson dealing with injury he has also gotten some run game action in over the last month. He is a steal from the ownership perspective and I love the FanDuel price of $9,500. His DK price is a little high at $10,800 but I’ll still have my shots at 3% ownership!
Russell Wilson – Since returning from injury Russ has not looked like DangeRuss and more like StrangeRuss. However tonight he is facing a Washington FT that has been plagued with injury and even before the most recent injury to Chase Young were allowing nearly 370 yards of total offense – oh and did I forget to mention that the Washington FT ranks DEAD LAST against QBs? Russ is the most popular play on DK at Captain at $16,500 and the most popular play on FanDuel at $15,500 … that is pricing I will take advantage of as if Russ can “get right” he can do damage with both his legs and his arm. I would just be wary of the ownership here. Coupled with his high price tags there will be a lot of “same” lineup builds with Wilson at the top…
DK Metcalf – Could you also put Tyler Lockett here, sure of course – but in this case, in a matchup against the team ranked 30th against Wide Receivers allowing nearly 300 yards of offense, I will take my shot on Metcalf – mainly because, for the first time in 2 seasons – he is CHEAPER than Tyler Lockett on DraftKings! $13,200 for Metcalf, $15,300 for Lockett! On FanDuel it is Metcalf $13,500 and Lockett $12,500. It has been a rough season for DK since Russ’ injury and yes Tyler Lockett had an explosion of production recently, but again in this matchup where I think Russ can “get right” I am hopeful that Metcalf can as well. For what it’s worth at 16% ownership he is the 3rd highest owned Captain/MVP tonight.
(For the record, a lot of what I said about Metcalf can be said about Lockett, I just can’t ignore the mispricing on Draft Kings. Lockett is a fine choice for Captain/MVP too … just want to make that clear)
Alex Collins – with Chris Carson still out Alex Collins will step in again as the lead dog and tonight he plays a Washington defense that is down their lead lineman. While the matchup hasn’t been the best against the Football team, with the Seahawks playing run first offense I will have a couple shots – mainly on FanDuel at $11,000 where he is also 4% owned at MVP. I think a lot of people will be scared to play Collins at all with the little red 10 in the matchup column but again I like the upside due to volume and potential goal line work here.
Antonio Gibson – Gibson may be the best play on the slate period. He is the lead dog on a team that allows him to be the lead dog (most of the time) including 24 rushes in week 9 against Tampa Bay and 19 in week 10 against Carolina. Additionally he has seen at least 2 targets in each game, minus last week. Tonight he gets a Seattle defense ranked 2nd to last against the run and allowing over 120 yards on the ground. Gibson should be able to feast here playing at home. Additionally love the 7% ownership here on both sites. Gibson is $12,900 on DK and $12,000 on FD – love that FD price!
Logan Thomas – it looks like Logan Thomas will finally make his return to the field for the WFT and with Ricky Seals-Jones ruled out, he should have TE targets all to his lonesome. It is a risk playing a guy coming off a long stay on IR but we have to look at his involvement early in the season as an indicator here – 2 touchdowns over 3 weeks, 7 targets in week 2 against the Saints. He is a steal at Captain on DK at $7,200 at 3% ownership at Captain, meanwhile his price on FD of $10,600 is less appealing but his less than 1% ownership is highly appealing!
Dart Throws Captain/MVP
Taylor Heinicke – QB – Washington Football Team
Curtis Samuel – WR – Washington Football Team
DeAndre Carter – WR – Washington Football Team (3 Touchdowns in the last 3 Games!)
Gerald Everett – TE – Seattle Seahawks
FLEX STRATEGY & DART THROWS
If I am building a lineup with Terry McLaurin or any other Washington Pass Catcher, I think the stack with Taylor Heinicke is smart but where possible I am going to try get both QBs in my lineup here. So as far as other pass catchers to include I would try and go cheap with secondary options like Adam Humphries or low owned picks like McKissic or Logan Thomas or DeAndre Carter – or a deeper dart throw with WR Cam Sims. It remains to be seen how Curtis Samuel will fit into this offense fully, so I don’t mind stacking him here in place of Carter, Sims or even McKissic in a few lineups.
If I am playing McKissic at Captain, I am loading this up with Washington Football pass catchers – with or without Heineke, since having McKissic at the top is kinda implying the Football team is throwing and playing catch up so all pass catchers are relevant with the priorities being McLaurin and Thomas and then either Carter or Sims or if you believe Curtis Samuel will walk into 10 targets – Samuel.
I also don’t mind using the Kicker – Joey Slye – in stacks with Washington pass catchers + Heineke
If I am playing Antonio Gibson at the top, I actually don’t mind rostering all Seahawks in the flex spots as a play that Gibson just dominates on the ground and it’s the Seahawks playing catchup. The other way to go is to stack him with McLaurin and Heineke and try and go 3 – 3 Washington FT to Seahawks. Or go 4 man with the Washington Kicker Slye and 2 Seahawks.
My favorite Seahawks run backs are the ushhh – Wilson, Metcalf, Lockett. I don’t mind using Collins in stacks with WFT Pass Catchers and I think the Seattle Kicker Jason Myers is fine to use as a run back on heavy Washington stacks.
If I am playing Russell Wilson at Captain/MVP, I am picking either Lockett or Metcalf as the primary stack and then trying to fit in at least 2 more, like the tight end Gerald Everett or a dart throw like Freddie Swain (WR3) or pass catching back Deejay Dallas, or a deeper dart on TE2 Will Dissly.
If I am playing Metcalf or Lockett at the top, I’d stack with Wilson and then honestly I’d limit my other Seahawks to either one other pass catcher like the tight ends OR a running back, primarily either Collins or DeeJay Dallas. The story I am telling here is that either Metcalf or Lockett have taken over this game and I’d try and fit in as many Washington studs as I could.
I don’t mind using kicker Jason Meyers in heavy Seattle pass catching lineups either.
If I am playing Collins at the top, I don’t mind including Wilson in the lineup and the Seattle Defense, using pass catchers or running backs or the kicker Slye from Washington as the run back – no Heineke.
On a whole I think Washington has the much more DFS friendly lineup with so many ways to go and to try and get right. Seattle, we kinda know where the offensive production is coming from. So I also don’t mind 2 – 4 lineups with only 2 Seahawks and 4 Washington Football Team members. And just like last night, if you have a lineup where you can play the Washington Defense, and they perform, you could find yourself in the green!!
Good Luck in your Contests!