Week 13 Sunday Night Football – Chiefs Broncos – Real Deal Fantasy HQ

You Can Find Me on Twitter @DelRayBoston

As I took a quick look at this Showdown Slate it became very obvious that the spot to be “different” will be at Captain/MVP. The thing about these two teams are that their offenses are so generally concentrated that it’s almost like every stud on both sides of the game are 20% owned in the flex that you are either looking for a deep dart throw to be a contrarian play or you are playing and paying for a stud up top that happens to be low owned at Captain/MVP.

Your top two owned Captains (DK) and MVP (FD) will be Patrick Mahomes & Tyreek Hill. For me I prefer the Hill at Captain more so than I do Mahomes, as no matter how good the Broncos have been against receivers it is tough to find any defense able to keep up with Hill’s speed. I am never going to say to anyone “don’t play Mahomes at the top of your lineup” but that is my take. On DK these two will be in a combined 40% of lineups with these two Chiefs at Captain. On FanDuel over 50%. So instead of too much talk on these two studs, my Captain/MVP Picks will be laid out here as difference makers for you.

Captain/MVP Picks:

Javonte Williams – No Melvin Gordon tonight should mean plenty of opportunities for Williams. He will be the highest owned Bronco at Captain/MVP but in saying that we are talking 16% ownership on DK and 11% on FD at the top. The Chiefs allowing over 100 yards to running backs and Williams in line for most likely 15 – 20 attempts and a handful of targets he takes the cake for me. On MVP where scoring favors the running back, he is near a lock for me. $11,400 Captain, $10,400 om FD.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire – staying with the running backs, CEH is expected to play tonight and of all of the Chiefs starters he probably has the best matchup statistically. The Broncos defense has been great this season especially lately. 6th against QBs, 10th against Wide Receivers, 4th against Tight Ends – but they are 11th against Running Backs and allowing over 100 yards per game and at 12% ownership on DK that could be enough tonight for the versatile back. On FD, at 5% ownership he really jumps off the page to me.

Teddy Bridgewater – Teddy Two Gloves has my eye tonight in a game where the Broncos are not favored despite being the 2nd Worst team in the league against QBs. Week 12 was an outlier for Bridgewater as coming into that game he had attempted 25 or more passes per game. Last week he only had 18 attempts, but I think that has more to do with the matchup where the Broncos went run heavy against the Chargers. Bridgewater has also gotten you fantasy points with his legs at times too, 4 times this season with double digit yardage. Bridgewater is 7% owned at DK at Captain and 10% owned on FD at MVP.

Travis Kelce – I believe it is the matchup that is causing Kelce to not see the same of similar ownership at Captain/MVP as Hill and Mahomes. Whatever the reason, I’ll take the ownership discount – 11% on DK at Captain, 8% on FD at MVP. Only twice all season has Kelce seen under 7 targets and when you take a deeper dive into the Bronco’s schedule, you will see that outside of Week 4 against Baltimore or Week 6 against Las Vegas – so only two games – that the Broncos have faced a Tight End as involved in this offense as Kelce is with the Chiefs. I’ll take some shots on Thor at the top tonight.

Noah Fant – I know what you are saying. You really want me to play 5 for 50 Noah Fant at Tight End? Well, yes. The Chiefs rank 26th against tight ends on the season and on top of that, he is cheap ($7,500 on DK, $8,000 on FD) and of all of the names I have listed he is the lowest owned Captain on DK at 2% and the lowest owned MVP on FanDuel at 1%. We have been all waiting for the Noah Fant breakout – why not tonight in prime time?

DART THROW CAPTAIN MVP:

Coutland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick – one of these guys, could pop off tonight but I’m not going to expound on why one or the other is that guy. If you are multi-entering, mix & match.

Mike Boon – Super Cheap! $300 on DK! Expected to be the #2 in the backfield behind Javonte Williams. If they run the same game plan of a 50/50 split or even close to that with Williams and Boone, like they have with Gordon and Williams all season – you’ll be glad I mentioned him.

Broncos Defense – look, the Broncos defense has just been playing great football over the last 5 weeks and quite frankly Mahomes and the Chiefs have not really looked like MAHOMES AND THE CHIEFS this season. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Broncos Defense takes down a tourney.

Chiefs Defense – by the same token, it’s 2021 and anything can happen. The Chiefs Defense has all the pieces, they just haven’t been able to put it together. Maybe tonight, in a division matchup, at home in Prime Time – they do.

Kickers – Yes, Kickers. It is possible that with the Broncos playing good D and the Chiefs at home this game underwhelms and Kickers can make a difference. Harrison Butker Chiefs, Brandon McManus Broncos

FLEX/DART THROWS

As I mentioned at the top, the biggest thing about this slate is how concentrated ownership is in the flex, regarding all of the main players that you’d want to play all sitting between 30 – 18% ownership. Those players being Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, CEH even Butker on the Chiefs. Bridgewater, Javonte, Sutton, Jeudy, Patrick, Fant.

So my strategy if I am using Mahomes at Captain is to stack him first with either Hill or Kelce and then take my pick at a secondary pass catcher – MeCole Hardman, Byron Pringle primarily and a sprinkle of Demarcus Robinson. I also like to include CEH in that stack since he will catch passes out of the backfield. I also don’t mind subbing CEH with Darrell Williams, the #2 running back as he could play that change of pace role and he also is a solid pass catcher.

If I am using Hill or Kelce at the top i am going to stack with Mahomes and fill the rest of the lineup with Broncos. The story I am telling here is that Hill or Kelce were the dominant Chiefs scorers and the Broncos were using all of their fire power to keep pace.

If I am using CEH at the top, I am including Mahomes and a pass catcher in the mix – likely one of the secondary guys like Hardman, Pringle or Robinson. I don’t mind including Butker in a lineup like this and also the Chiefs Defense.

My favorite Broncos run backs on Chiefs stacks are Javonte Williams, Teddy Two Gloves, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, Noah Fant and Brandon McManus.

If I am building my lineup with Javonte Williams at top I don’t mind a stack with the Defense and believe it or not that’s it. It is possible that with this opportunity Javonte just dominates the offensive production for the Broncos and that will lead the Cheifs to play a little catch up so I’ll take the salary savings to load the linuep with Chiefs. I also don’t mind at least one lineup with Mike Boone in the stack with Williams and the Defense, in case the Broncos do the thunder and lightning approach even with Gordon out.

If I am building around Teddy Bridgewater at top. I am including at least 2 of his pass catchers in the stack with Javonte Williams and hope to capture all of Bridgewater’s targets that matter. My favorites are Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick, along with Noah Fant. I’ll also have a sprinkling of Jerry Jeudy but he just hasn’t impressed me like I thought he might coming out of the injury.

If I am using Noah Fant at the top I will stack with Bridgewater and Javonte and I also like using the kicker McManus in lineups like this. As much as I like Fant at Captain, what I am saying here is that the Wide Receivers can’t get the job done and as such, it’s a lower scoring affair for the Broncos.

My Favorite Chiefs Run Backs – you know the names – Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, CEH, Butker, Chiefs Defense.

GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS!

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