You Can Find Me on Twitter @DelRayBoston
Well the weather sounds like it’ll be frightful, while the Patriots have played delighful, but if Mac Jones has no place to throw, oh no, oh no, oh no…
Well the weather has no thoughts of stoppin’, nor the Bills intend to be flopppin’, but if Josh Allen’s got no place to roll, I don’t know, I don’t know, I don’t know …
I am an equal opportunity rhymer, what can I say. Yes I am a dire hard, life long Pats fan BUT when it comes to other teams I greatly prefer my AFC East Rival Buffalo Bills more than nearly any other team in the league. See back in the day, like the Sullivan Stadium and Original Foxboro Stadium (Circa 1985 – 1997) long before the Big Tuna or anyone even heard of Bledsoe, let alone Brady … the Patriots were the loveable losers and tickets were cheap and I got to see those early 90s Bills teams live more than any other team that came through town. So it’s like Rocky and Apollo becoming friends, I’ve always had a respect for the Bills despite my passionate love for my Patriots.
So needless to say this is a big game. It could decide the fate of the AFC East – yes. It also could cement to the doubters that Bill and his Patriots are back. It also can help re-solidify Josh Allen and the Bills as the incumbent AFC Championship contenders we all assumed they would be since Week 1. But of course Mother Nature has to stick her nose in our football business, right? Tonight we have 25-35 mile hour winds in Buffalo predicted by local weather with gusts of up to 55 miles per hour! Additionally, 50-60% chance of snow at kickoff and potential rain basically throughout the first 3 quarters.
Not to mention the actual Defenses playing tonight. The Bills #1 against QBs, Patriots #2 against QBs. Bills #1 against WR, Patriots #3 against WR. Patriots #1 against TE, Bills #4 against TE. Bills #3 against RBs … and the Patriots, wait what, #17 against RBs? Hmmm….
CAPTAIN / MVP PICKS
BILLS RUNNING BACKS No I am serious… we don’t know which one will start because last week the snap percentages were Devin Singletary (most) and Matt Breida (least) and Zach Moss (healthy scratch). We have been told that the Breida got the start over Moss to “shake up” the Bill’s running back room. Also that because Singletary had the “hot hand” he ended up out touching Breida. Will Moss be a healthy scratch again? Who will start? We do not know, at least not right now. So here is how I am prioritizing them:
- Devin Singletary: $6,900 Captain DK, 2.5% owned as Captain, 4.5% owned as Flex. $8,000 on FD 5% owned. If he had the hot hand last week in a bad weather game, my gut says he gets the start tonight and against the Patriots 17th Ranked Rush Defense. He had 15 carries last week and one target but that could go up tonight if the wind causes Allen to dump the ball off short. I like the his pricing on both sites and love the ownership on both sites.
- Matt Breida: $9,900 Captain DK, 2% owned as Captain, 4% owned as Flex. $7,500 on FD 3% owned. The new kid on the block looked good when he had his chances last week. If the Bills follow the game plan from last week, my gut says he plays a change of pace role but maybe he gets the start tonight in a bad weather game. Don’t like the DK price but I think he’s priced correctly on FD. Love the ownership though on both sites.
- Zach Moss: $900 Captain DK, $7,000 FD. I’d love to give you ownership here but I can’t because as of right now we have no knowledge if Moss will be active or inactive. I would have to think if he is active he will be 3rd in line after missing a week, though we also haven’t gotten any reports that he was absent for practice so it is possible that in bad weather the Bills elect to start their best ‘bruiser’. So keep him on your radar especially at the DK price!
Look even as a Patriots fan I know, you can run on the Patriots. Cleveland did it with their backup, effectively. The Titans did it with their backups, effectively. What’s to say Buffalo doesn’t just scheme this game to be run first and run often given the weather!
Cole Beasley – $11,700 DK Captain, 6% owned at Captain, 26% owned at Flex. $10,000 FD, 1% owned at MVP, 25% owned at Flex. For some reason I haven’t heard a lot of chatter about Cole Beasley tonight but to me, if I am hearing 25 mile an hour wind with 55 MPH gusts, I am not thinking to my self that there will be a ton of deep bombs. Instead, I think there will be a lot of short intermediate passes – enter Cole Beasley. Only 4 times this year has Beasley seen under 5 targets already but I think that target share goes up tonight. People are jumping on him in the flex on both sites, but 6% ownership at Captain on DK … I can dig that.
Jakobi Meyers – $10,800 DK Captain 8% Captain Ownership, 26% Flex Ownership. $9,500 FD 5% owned at MVP, 34% owned in the Flex. Easily could just say rinse, wash, repeat what I just wrote about Cole Beasley here. The most sure handed receiver on the Patriots, I could see a steady stream of 10-12 yard targets to Meyers underneath and let him go. Only 2 times this year has Meyers seen under 6 targets already and I love the ownership on FD.
Brandon Bolden – $4,800 DK Captain 1% Captain Ownership, 2% Flex Ownership. $7,500 FD 1% MVP ownership, 2% Flex Ownership. Yes, I know there are much flashier and more “sure thing” plays in the Patriots back field, from a snap percentage stand point. But despite excellent play by Harris and Stevenson lately, it’s Brandon Bolden who has clearly taken on the James White third down role and in a game environment like this with wind, potential rain, potential snow – I can easily see the Pats’ passing down back out producing the other two studs so I have to make mention. Because the Patriots have largely been in control of the last 6 games, it’s tough to read stat lines and make a guess. This is purely a gut call on my part. But, it’s often the overlooked player like Bolden (I mean look at the ownership, he’s overlooked) that makes the difference in lineups.
Josh Allen – $16,800 Captain, 28% ownership at Captain, 61% ownership in the Flex. $17,500 FD, 21% owned in MVP, 48% owned in the Flex. Finally I mention Allen, right? Well of the two Quarterbacks tonight I think Allen’s ability to scramble and make plays with both his arm and leg will ultimately serve you best at the top of your lineup more so than at the bottom. Allen is 2-3 in his career against the Pats. In Week 16 of the 2020 season Allen completed 75% of his passes, threw for 320 yards and had 4 touchdowns. He also ran for 35. Granted this is a much different Patriots team and defense he will see tonight, but I have to think he has a chip on his shoulder especially coming off a dominant win last week. Of the two QBs tonight, I prefer him at Captain/MVP.
Dawson Knox – $8,100 Captain 4% owned at Captain, 20% owned at the Flex. $10,500 FD, 3% owned at MVP, 20% owned at the Flex. Yes, the Patriots are #1 against Tight Ends… but on a team with wide receiver depth like Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley as the primary weapons – I could see big Dawson getting loose and the Patriots also (I know because I am fan) aren’t great at Tight End Screens… don’t know why. I will take a shot on Knox tonight and I wouldn’t be shocked with him getting in the Endzone either.
Rhamondre Stevenson – $8,400 Captain, 3% owned at Captain, 22% owned at Flex. $12,000 FD, 3& owned at MVP, 30% owned at Flex. Do I think Damien Harris is the more adept runner? Yes, and he has more experience. Do I think Damien Harris will start, yes I do. But the Patriots have been enjoying success with the Thunder and Lightning approach mixing in Stevenson and there is something about the big bodied, bruiser that appeals to me in a game where (UPDATE) snow is already falling. He is highly owned in the Flex but not at Captain or MVP and I love that.
Hunter Henry – $7,800 Captain, 2% owned at Captain, 18% owned at Flex. $9,000 FD, 0.1% owned at MVP, 7% owned at Flex. Another thing about wind, snow and rain games is you want your safety blanket and Hunter Henry has been a Safety blanket at times for Mac Jones. Lately, with the Patriots offense cruising it has been more about the Wide Receivers, I grant you. However Henry has seen at least 1 RED ZONE target in all but 3 games. That is the safety blanket that matters….
DEFENSES: #Analysis – bad weather games, play the Defenses. I prefer the Patriots here on the road with a ton of momentum, but the Bills don’t have the statistical edge for nothin’… and they are at home. So yes, I give full permission to play some lineups with the Defenses at Captain on DK.
Dart Throw Captain/MVP:
FLEX STRATEGY & DART THROWS
First and foremost, if the wind is going to be as bad as being reported I am staying away from Kickers in my lineups tonight. Just too risky. Though for what it’s worth Nick Folk has been one of the most consistent point scorers, as a kicker, in fantasy this season.
Also, I know it seems weird to see Stefon Diggs and Damien Harris, both studs and starters as Dart Throws at Captain but honestly I don’t know how much passing volume there will be from Josh Allen and I don’t know how much room between the tackles there will be against a stout Bills’ line at home either. But it doesn’t mean I don’t like them or any of the Dart Throw Captain plays as flex, I do …
If I am rolling with a Bill’s Running Back at the top, I think stacking with the Bills defense makes the most sense. I also like including Allen with 1 receiver, my favorite being Beasley but any are in play including Diggs, Sanders, Knox, Davis. I wouldn’t go deeper than that in a lineup like this though.
If I am rolling with Beasley at the top I am including Allen in my stack and again I don’t mind including the Bills Defense and loading it up with receiving options. It says that the Bills are able to throw the ball, but Beasley has the biggest night.
I think though if I am stacking using Diggs, Sanders or Gabriel Davis at top, and stacking with Allen, I’d include Beasley and I might actually try another Dart Throw in a lineup like like Jake Kumerow (WR) or the other tight end Tommy Sweeney. It always seems like you miss that errant 4th WR touchdown when you stack with the #1 or #2 Wide Receivers at Captain/MVP…
My favorite Bills play though is Cole Beasley and my favorite Patriots Run Backs are the Bolden, Stevenson, Meyers and Henry.
If I am using Jakobi Meyers at Captain, you have to stack with Mack Jones and then I like another Wide Receiver in the mix like Bourne or take a chance on Nelson Agholor or a dart throw on N’Keal Harry or a real deep dart on Gunner Olszewski. I’d also include Brandon Bolden as the most likely pass catching back. This is generally how I’d build with any Patriots WR at the top of my lineup.
If I am using Hunter Henry in that role, I am going all down the middle with the stack – Mac Jones, Meyers, Bourne, Harris, Stevenson … they all are in play. What Henry at Captain means the Patriots offensive scheme is just clicking like it has for the last 6 weeks and I’d want to capture as much as I can.
If I am using Bolden or Stevenson at Captain, I’d start the stack with the Patriots Defense and include Mac Jones and one other pass catcher. My favorites being Meyers or Henry. I also do not mind double stacking Patriots running backs here knowing that Harris will be in the mix anyway.
Lastly if I am using a Defense at Captain I am stacking with at least 2 running backs of the same team, the quarterback and 1 receiver (my favorites are Beasley, Bills and Meyers, Pats) and using tight ends to fill up the rest of the lineup and leaving a boatload of money on the table. I don’t even mind double stacking the defenses and go no quarterback one receiver and one running back from either team and leaving a boat load of money on the table. GET DIFFERENT!
My favorite Bills run backs are the running backs, Allen, Beasley and Diggs.
GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS!