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Today’s preview will be in honor of the memory of Demaryus Thomas. Gone too soon and too young.
Week 14 of the NFL is shaping up to be just like every week of this season – full of unexpected turns of events and injuries… oh yeah and pretty much the entire Detroit Lions team either testing positive for Covid or sidelined with the flu – no, the specifics of the Lion’s woes aren’t the same as every other week but likely their results will be much the same.
I am going to hit on some value plays I have found on Draft Kings that I think you will need to be aware of, then I’ll take a look at ownership at each position and finally my favorite plays and stacks. Buckle up, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
Keelan Cole – $3,100. Whats better to start out a values conversation than with a dart throw, but here’s the thing. Even when Corey Davis and Elijah Moore were out running routes, Cole was as well. Now Davis and Moore are on IR and that will leave Cole, Jamison Crowder and Denzel Mims as the primary WR weapons and while I could mention Mims who is $100 cheaper, I like Cole here to see some targets. Cole has always been a solid route runner with sure hands and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Cole get 5-6 targets in this game (or more). The matchup against the Saints isn’t the best, but again to get a guy with experience starting at $3,100? Difficult for me to ignore.
Jaylen Guyton – $3,400. Last week Guyton went 4 for 90 and a score and that should have already had him on your radar. However now that Keenan Allen has been officially ruled out, Guyton NEEDS to be on your radar. There will be an immediate increase in ownership on Mike Williams this week as well as Austin Ekeler, due to the Keenan Allen news so nabbing Guyton in your lineup will already make for an interesting pivot and leverage play – but he’ll save you some serious salary. If he sees near that Keenan Allen target share, he’s easily worth the risk.
Laquon Treadwell – $3,400. Tough to trust a Jaguar I know. Plus on top of all the bad play is the bad press going on around the coach Urban Meyer. That being said, Treadwell has amassed 115 yards in the last two weeks in this offense and in this offense, that is saying something. Despite some recent decent play, the Titans still rank dead last in the league against WRs as well. Considering the inevitable catch up game the Jags will likely be playing, I’ll take the guy seeing the most targets; most catches and most yards this side of Jamal Agnew.
Julio Jones – $5,400. What does 3+ weeks on IR get you? A sub $6K price tag! Less than 6K for Julio, who will immediately walk into being the #1 Target for Ryan Tannehill – desperate to get one of his two stud WRs back, and oh yeah Julio is playing the Jacksonville Jaguars and not in DUVAL but at home. So no South Florida hoodoo, voodoo here…
Jeff Wilson Jr – $4,400. News broke too early that Elijah Mitchell will not play and it is driving Jeff Wilson’s ownership up considerably – but he is worth mentioning all the same. Assuming he is the starting Running Back and can stay healthy, he will find himself in a game where the Bengals will need to do more than stuff the box on the Niner’s run game – with Deebo now announced as playing and Kittle and Aiyuk all healthy as well. For what it’s worth, if for some reason the Niners announce JayMIchael Hasty is starting, he is $400 cheaper.
Jermar Jefferson – $4,000. Yeah I hate the idea of playing a Detroit Lion too but here’s what I’ll say. Cheap, low ownership and a matchup that doesn’t totally scare me. The Lions will have to do something and I think they’ll find it harder to pass than to run or to dump off passes on the running back and I don’t mind the cheap price tag here at all. That and less than 4% ownership too.
Alex Collins – $5,200. Collins is back and while there could be a time share situation, I tend to think he will see the lionshare of the work in a matchup against the Texans ranked at the bottom of the league against Running Backs. Especially if the Seahawks take an early lead and hold it. I like the potential for a touchdown or two as well on the goal line.
Antonio Gibson – $6,000. I wasn’t going to mention Gibson as a value until I learned tonight that JD McKissic would be out again. The Washington Football Team has been leaning on Gibson heavily during this 4 game streak they have been on having 19 or more carries in each of the last 4 games and 6 or more targets in the last two. Additionally Antonio Gibson vs the Dallas Cowboys is kinda a thing including a late last season performance of 115 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Ricky Seals-Jones – $3,600. Staying with the WFT here, Tight Ends against the Cowboys – also a thing and with Logan Thomas already ruled out, RSJ is back in the swing. In 3 games starting with Thomas out, RSJ saw 9, 6 & 7 targets respectively and had a touchdown grab. This is a must win game for the WFT and I could see them trying to get Rickey going early and often
Jimmy Garoppolo – $5,800. DEEBO IS BACK! This was already a must win for the Niners and sure Handome Jimmy was going to have big George out there for him and also Brandon Aiyuk … but now, DEEBO is back! If Jimmy’s ownership also holds at 1%, you could have yourself a tournament winner here. DEEBO IS BACK!
Taysom Hill – $5,600. Hill will get another turn at a start, but this time it will be against the Jets. Hill will be a popular play but, after 100 yard rushing in his last game – a feat he could easily repeat against the Jets – it is easy to see why he will be popular. I love the stack with Hill and Kamara, both around 15% ownership sure – but you have a real shot of getting all of the Saints’ touchdowns between these two players.
Cam Newton – $5,400. Sure Cam looked awful last week – however this week he gets to play the Atlanta Falcons, a team he has had a long history beating up on and a team that ranks 30th against QBs, a team allowing nearly 120 on the ground and a team allowing over 247 passing yards as well. I’ll take another shot on Cam here at a cheap price. Additionally with Taysom Hill only $200 more, you are going to get Cam at an ownership discount.
QB PICKS and STACKS
Patrick Mahomes – Tyreek Hill – Travis Kelce – Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Mahomes is the most expensive quarterback on the slate but with estimated 6% ownership, he actually will act as a pivot to Derek Carr on the other side of the game who is estimated at 15%. Most players will be looking to game stack this Chiefs Raiders matchup with Carr and Hunter Renfrow or Carr and Foster Morerau and run it back with either Hill or Kelce. Kelce by the way has the better matchup than Hill and makes for an excellent play at Tight End. That being said I am yet to see a defense truly shut down Tyreek Hill… stack Mahomes with either Kelce or Hill and include CEH in that stack to really be contrarian. Then run it back with a Raider – Josh Jacobs, Renfrow, Moreau or if you are really feeling frisky Kenyan Drake. Or just play the Cheifs naked without a run back.
Josh Allen – Stefon Diggs – Mike Evans or Chris Godwin or Rob Gronkowski. I think think you could also play Brady – Evans, Godwin or Gronk or double stack with 2 of the 3 and run it back with Diggs too but I like Allen and Diggs to bounce back in much better conditions in Tampa Bay this week. Both he and Brady will see about 10% ownership so this is more a raw points play than anything else, but it may be the raw points play you need to cash this weekend. I’d also like to mention that we just saw the Patriots literally run all over this Bill’s defense, so you have to like Leonard Fournette (who will be one of the highest owned running backs this weekend) and I don’t even mind a flex at Ronald Jones who will see a handful of carries… maybe one in the Red Zone. If you want to double stack Allen and Diggs, I’d first look at Dawson Knox the Tight End who has a favorable matchup – then Gabriel Davis. Emmanuel Sanders didn’t practice Friday and if he is limited I like Davis to step up again.
Lamar Jackson – Mark Andrews – Kareem Hunt. I am not saying you need to get a piece of this game but I don’t think it will hurt either. This matchup is always one to watch and the Ravens need this win to stay alive in the AFC Wildcard. Meanwhile the Browns have been pretty solid against WRs, but Tight Ends have been an issue. I was there live watching Hunter Henry score 2 touchdowns against them. Additionally, Cleveland has come out and said that they expect Chubb and Hunt to have a “significant” role in this game. If we are to believe that Cleveland is playing catchup ball than we are to believe Hunt’s “significant role” could be very significant. Plus he is near $4,000 cheaper than Chubb. I also want to mention, I think Austin Hooper and to a lesser extent David Njoku are solid Tight End plays as well at next to no ownership. The Ravens for whatever reason seem to want to let Tight Ends to catch passes against them….
Justin Herbert – Austin Ekeler – Mike Williams or Jaylen Guyton – Saquon Barkley. I am not always in favor of playing both running backs in the same game but in this case I will take a shot. I don’t think you can use Herbert without Ekeler this week with Keenan Allen out. The double stack is yours to choose as sure Mike Williams SHOULD step up here, but he will be chalky and expensive. My preferred double stack is with cheap Guyton. The Giants’ receiving corp is a mess and if they have any hope in staying in this game I think they will need to lean on Barkley early and often. To their credit the Chargers have been better against the run over the last 3 weeks but Barkley’s usage in the passing game should be in effect here too…
Dak Prescott – Ceedee Lamb or Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup – Terry McLauren or Antonio Gibson or Ricky Seals-Jones I know a lot of people are excited about the Bucs and Bills but personally, I am most excited by this NFC East matchup that could very well decide the division. The thing is there is so much attention on the Bucs and Bills, CeeDee Lamb is inexplicably less than 6% owned – which means Cooper and Gallup are even less owned. By the way I think including Gallup as a second in this stack makes a ton of sense. We saw with all 3 on the field last week, Dak still was looking for Gallup on the sidelines. I should mention that if Tony Pollard is out, as he may be, I love Zeke Elliot in this matchup. If Pollard plays I don’t want to figure which one of the two will have the more meaningful day. I also think you can consider using Dalton Schultz at Tight End in this game.
Jimmy Garoppolo – Deebo Samuel – George Kittle – Joe Mixon -Tee Higgins or Ja’Mar Chase I already went over this once and I’ll say it again – Deebo is BACK! I don’t mind the double stack with big George but I also like the stack of just Jimmy G and Deebo solo too. Assuming Mixon is 100% healthy, I love him in this matchup with the Niners allowing well over 100 yards on the ground. I also love the usage that Higgins has seen over the last 3 weeks and of course Ja’Mar Chase is just one big play away from helping you cash every week. I think you can also go with Burrow stacked with Mixon Higgins and/or Chase, but neither Jimmy or Joe are seeing any sort of ownership that would make either a leverage play and I love the TD upside Jimmy – Deebo carry.
ADDITIONAL PLAYS: I haven’t already written about.
Josh Jacobs vs Chiefs
Chubba Hubbard vs Falcons
Denver Running Back against Detroit (and if Melvin Gordon sits, Javonte Williams should be a lock!)
Devonta Freeman vs Browns
D’onta Foreman or Dontrelle Hilliard vs Jacksonville
David Johnson or Rex Burkhead vs Seattle
DK Metcalf vs Houston – if there was ever a ‘get right matchup’ it’s the Texans
DJ Moore vs Atlanta
Tyler Lockett vs Houston – it only takes one big moon bomb from Russ to Lockett remember
Jamison Crowder or Denzel Mims vs Saints
Cole Beasley vs Buccaneers
Jarvis Landry vs Ravens
Donovan Peoples-Jones vs Ravens
Brandin Cooks vs Seahawks
Gerald Everett vs Texans
Evan Engram vs Chargers
Jared Cook vs Giants
Pharoah Brown vs Seahawks
Geoff Swaim vs Jaguars
Donald Parham vs Giants
Jordan Aikins vs Seahawks
Kyle Rudolph vs Chargers
DSTs I am looking at:
Broncos vs Lions
Chargers vs Giants
Titans vs Jaguars
Saints vs Jets
Ravens vs Browns
Panthers vs Falcons
Falcons vs Panthers
GOOD LUCK IN YOUR CONTESTS!